tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6137749825844259422024-03-08T00:01:18.623+01:00NoticiotecaRecopilatorio de noticias, con enlace a la noticia original en el título, y con los párrafos más relevantes y algún comentario para saber de qué va.Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.comBlogger845125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-26866935499305250542008-11-12T08:23:00.000+01:002008-11-12T08:25:06.108+01:00ING reports underlying net loss of EUR 585 million in 3Q<span class="heading"><b>ING reports underlying net loss of EUR 585 million in 3Q</b></span><br /><br /><span class="main"> </span><div class="hugin" align="left"> <ul class="hugin"><span class="main"><li class="hugin"><strong class="hugin">Underlying net loss of EUR 585 million driven by crisis in the financial markets </strong> <ul class="hugin"><li class="hugin">Pre-tax impairments on equities, pressurised assets and other debt securities totalling EUR 1,505 million </li><li class="hugin">Negative revaluations through P&L on real estate and private equity totalling EUR 333 million </li><li class="hugin">Negative impact of other market-related items of EUR 265 million through P&L </li><li class="hugin">Net loss of EUR 478 million in line with preliminary results announced on 17 October </li><li class="hugin">Net loss per share of EUR 0.22, compared to net profit per share of EUR 1.08 in third quarter of 2007 </li><li class="hugin">Net profit of EUR 2,982 million year-to-date, versus EUR 6,759 million for the first nine months of 2007</li></ul></li></span></ul> <ul class="hugin"><span class="main"><li class="hugin"><strong class="hugin">Sound commercial performance despite difficult operating environment </strong> <ul class="hugin"><li class="hugin">Net production of client balances up EUR 38 billion, excluding impact of currencies, to EUR 1,528 billion </li><li class="hugin">Retail deposits grew EUR 6.7 billion and total Bank deposits grew by EUR 12.9 billion excluding FX impact </li><li class="hugin">Insurance new sales down 8.5% on a constant currency basis</li></ul></li></span></ul> <ul class="hugin"><span class="main"><li class="hugin"><strong class="hugin">Capital buffers reinforced following transaction with Dutch State </strong> <ul class="hugin"><li class="hugin">All capital ratios within target during the third quarter, prior to transaction with Dutch State </li><li class="hugin">EUR 10 billion purchase of core tier-1 securities by Dutch State to be completed on 12 November 2008 </li><li class="hugin">Pro-forma ING Bank Tier-1 ratio will increase to 10%; Pro-forma Core Tier-1 ratio will increase to 8% </li><li class="hugin">Pro-forma ING Group Debt/Equity ratio will improve to under 10% </li><li class="hugin">Final 2008 dividend suspended leaving total 2008 dividend at EUR 0.74 per share paid in August</li></ul></li></span></ul></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main"><strong class="hugin">Chairman's Statement</strong></span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main">"The third quarter was extremely challenging for financial institutions. Financial markets deteriorated rapidly toward the end of the quarter, with steep declines in equity markets, widening credit spreads, declining property prices and the failure of several banks. Against this background, ING reported its first ever quarterly loss, following EUR 1.5 billion of impairments and losses. That brought our underlying net profit for the first nine months of the year to EUR 2.9 billion," said Michel Tilmant, CEO of ING.</span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main"> </span></div> <div class="hugin" align="left"><span class="main">"In these increasingly turbulent times, ING acted proactively to reinforce its capital base after the Dutch government made funds available to help stabilise the financial system and create a level playing field. The financial services industry is about trust, and as our customers face uncertain times it is essential that they have no reason to be concerned about the strength of ING as their financial partner. The EUR 10 billion capital injection from the Dutch State helped to reassure our customers who entrust their savings and investments to ING. In addition, the sale of our Taiwan life business will significantly reduce our exposure to long-term interest rates, reducing risks within the company. Following these transactions, our capital position is stronger and we have capacity to absorb the impact of a further deterioration in financial markets."</span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main"> </span></div> <div class="hugin" align="left"><span class="main">"ING's commercial performance was resilient, even in this challenging and highly competitive environment. Net production of client balances, excluding the impact of currencies, was EUR 38 billion in the third quarter, driven by savings and deposits growth of EUR 12.9 billion and lending growth of EUR 22.9 billion. New life sales declined 8.5% excluding currency impacts amid reduced demand for investment products. However, ING's broad product expertise enabled us to respond to customers' changing needs."</span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main"> </span></div> <div class="hugin" align="left"><span class="main">"As we approach the end of 2008, markets continue to be turbulent, so we expect pressure on asset prices to continue to impact results in the fourth quarter, while weakening economic conditions will put pressure on results into 2009. Our priority is to sustain commercial momentum by remaining focused on our customers, while managing our risks, capital and expense base with the discipline that these exceptional times require."</span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main"> </span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main">The full report including tables can be downloaded from the following link:</span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main"> </span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main"><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.ing.com/cms/idc_cgi_isapi.dll?IdcService=GET_FILE&dDocName=350136_EN&RevisionSelectionMethod=latestReleased" class="hugin">2008 Third Quarter Results ING Group</a></span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main"> </span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main">The following documents can be downloaded from around 08.00 am CET from the following links: </span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main"> </span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main"><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.ing.com/cms/idc_cgi_isapi.dll?IdcService=GET_FILE&dDocName=350137_EN&RevisionSelectionMethod=latestReleased" class="hugin">Quarterly Report</a></span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main"> </span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main"><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.ing.com/cms/idc_cgi_isapi.dll?IdcService=GET_FILE&dDocName=350141_EN&RevisionSelectionMethod=latestReleased" class="hugin">Analyst Presentation</a></span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main"> </span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main"><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.ing.com/cms/idc_cgi_isapi.dll?IdcService=GET_FILE&dDocName=350139_EN&RevisionSelectionMethod=latestReleased" class="hugin">Press Presentation</a></span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main"> </span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main"><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.ing.com/cms/idc_cgi_isapi.dll?IdcService=GET_FILE&dDocName=350143_EN&RevisionSelectionMethod=latestReleased" class="hugin">Group Statistical Supplement</a></span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main"> </span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main"><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.ing.com/cms/idc_cgi_isapi.dll?IdcService=GET_FILE&dDocName=350144_EN&RevisionSelectionMethod=latestReleased" class="hugin">US Statistical Supplement</a> </span></div> <div class="hugin"><span class="main"> </span></div>Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-32694223181195580232008-10-31T08:14:00.001+01:002008-10-31T10:16:11.495+01:00Chesapeake Energy Corporation Reports Financial and Operational Results for the 2008 Third QuarterChesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE:CHK) today announced financial and operating results for the 2008 third quarter. For the quarter, Chesapeake reported net income to common shareholders of $3.282 billion ($5.61 per fully diluted common share), operating cash flow of $1.400 billion (defined as cash flow from operating activities before changes in assets and liabilities) and ebitda of $5.963 billion (defined as net income (loss) before income taxes, interest expense, and depreciation, depletion and amortization expense) on revenue of $7.491 billion and production of 214 billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent (bcfe). The results above include the following items that are typically not included in published estimates of the company's financial results by certain securities analysts:<br /><br />-- an unrealized noncash after-tax mark-to-market (MTM) gain of $2.846 billion from future period natural gas, oil and interest rate hedges primarily resulting from lower natural gas and oil prices as of September 30, 2008 compared to June 30, 2008;<br /><br />-- an after-tax loss of $19.0 million on the early redemption of the company's $300 million 7.75% Senior Notes due 2015;<br /><br />-- an after-tax consent fee of $6.3 million paid to amend certain provisions contained in five of the company's senior note indentures; and<br /><br />-- a reduction of net income available to common shareholders of $24.5 million resulting from exchanges of the company's preferred stock for common stock that reduced future preferred stock dividend payment requirements.<br /><br />Including the items noted above, Chesapeake reported adjusted net income to common shareholders during the quarter of $486 million ($0.85 per fully diluted common share) and adjusted ebitda of $1.386 billion, increases of 47% and 16%, respectively, over the 2007 third quarter. A reconciliation of operating cash flow, ebitda, adjusted ebitda and adjusted net income to comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles is presented on pages 14 - 17 of this release. Key Operational and Financial Statistics Summarized<br /><br />The table below summarizes Chesapeake's key results during the 2008 third quarter and compares them to results during the 2008 second quarter and the 2007 third quarter.<br /><br /> Three Months Ended:<br /> -----------------------<br /> 9/30/08 6/30/08 9/30/07<br /> ------- ------- -------<br />Average daily production (in mmcfe) 2,321 2,328 2,026<br />Natural gas as % of total production 92 92 91<br />Natural gas production (in bcf) 196.7 195.0 170.3<br />Average realized natural gas price ($/mcf) (a) 8.02 8.18 7.41<br />Oil production (in mbbls) 2,810 2,816 2,680<br />Average realized oil price ($/bbl) (a) 75.74 76.96 69.25<br />Natural gas equivalent production (in bcfe) 213.5 211.9 186.4<br />Natural gas equivalent realized price ($/mcfe)<br /> (a) 8.38 8.55 7.76<br />Natural gas and oil marketing income ($/mcfe) .11 .12 .10<br />Service operations income ($/mcfe) .04 .04 .06<br />Production expenses ($/mcfe) (1.12) (1.03) (.89)<br />Production taxes ($/mcfe) (.41) (.41) (.30)<br />General and administrative costs ($/mcfe) (b) (.38) (.38) (.23)<br />Stock-based compensation ($/mcfe) (.12) (.10) (.10)<br />DD&A of natural gas and oil properties<br /> ($/mcfe) (2.25) (2.47) (2.57)<br />D&A of other assets ($/mcfe) (.23) (.19) (.24)<br />Interest expense ($/mcfe) (a) (.26) (.36) (.52)<br />Operating cash flow ($ in millions) (c) 1,400 1,443 1,085<br />Operating cash flow ($/mcfe) 6.56 6.81 5.82<br />Adjusted ebitda ($ in millions) (d) 1,386 1,435 1,195<br />Adjusted ebitda ($/mcfe) 6.49 6.77 6.41<br />Net income (loss) to common shareholders ($ in<br /> millions) 3,282 (1,649) 346<br />Earnings (loss) per share - assuming dilution<br /> ($) 5.61 (3.17) .72<br />Adjusted net income to common shareholders<br />($ in millions) (e) 486 479 330<br />Adjusted earnings per share - assuming<br /> dilution ($) .85 .89 .69<br /><br />(a) includes the effects of realized gains or (losses) from hedging, but does not include the effects of unrealized gains or (losses) from hedging<br /><br />(b) excludes expenses associated with noncash stock-based compensation<br /><br />(c) defined as cash flow provided by operating activities before changes in assets and liabilities<br /><br />(d) defined as net income (loss) before income taxes, interest expense, and depreciation, depletion and amortization expense, as adjusted to remove the effects of certain items detailed on page 16<br /><br />(e) defined as net income (loss) available to common shareholders, as adjusted to remove the effects of certain items detailed on page 16<br /><br />2008 Third Quarter Average Daily Production Increases 15% over 2007 Third Quarter Production<br /><br />Daily production for the 2008 third quarter averaged 2.321 bcfe, a decrease of 7 mmcfe, or 0.3%, over the 2.328 bcfe produced per day in the 2008 second quarter and an increase of 295 mmcfe, or 15%, over the 2.026 bcfe produced per day in the 2007 third quarter. Adjusted for the company's year-end 2007, second quarter 2008 and third quarter 2008 VPP sales of 55, 47 and 47 mmcfe per day, respectively, and the company's sale of Woodford Shale and Fayetteville Shale properties of 47 and 45 mmcfe per day, respectively, Chesapeake's sequential and year-over-year production growth rates were 3% and 23%, respectively. In addition, during the quarter hurricane-related production curtailments totaled approximately 1.6 bcfe while voluntary production cutbacks due to low wellhead natural gas prices totaled approximately 0.6 bcfe.<br /><br />Chesapeake's average daily production for the 2008 third quarter consisted of 2.138 billion cubic feet of natural gas (bcf) and 30,543 barrels of oil and natural gas liquids (bbls). The company's 2008 third quarter production of 213.5 bcfe was comprised of 196.7 bcf (92% on a natural gas equivalent basis) and 2.81 million barrels of oil and natural gas liquids (mmbbls) (8% on a natural gas equivalent basis).<br /><br />Natural Gas and Oil Proved Reserves Reach 12.1 Tcfe on 1.2 Tcfe of Net Additions; During the First Three Quarters of 2008, Company Delivers a Reserve Replacement Rate of 290% and a Drilling and Net Acquisition Cost of $1.35 per Mcfe<br /><br />Chesapeake began 2008 with estimated proved reserves of 10.879 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent (tcfe) and ended the third quarter with 12.075 tcfe, an increase of 1.196 tcfe, or 11%. During the first three quarters of 2008, Chesapeake replaced 630 bcfe of production with an estimated 1.826 tcfe of new proved reserves for a reserve replacement rate of 290%. Reserve replacement through the drillbit was 2.286 tcfe, or 363% of production. This includes 1,128 bcfe of positive performance revisions (including 987 bcfe related to infill drilling and increased density locations) and 13 bcfe of positive revisions resulting from natural gas and oil price increases between December 31, 2007 and September 30, 2008. Acquisitions of proved reserves completed during the first three quarters of 2008 were 165 bcfe at a cost of $357 million, or $2.16 per mcfe, while sales of proved reserves during the first three quarters of 2008 totaled 638 bcfe for proceeds of $2.335 billion, or $3.66 per mcfe. Sales of undeveloped leasehold during the first three quarters of 2008 generated proceeds of $3.6 billion compared to a cost basis of approximately $750 million for the leasehold sold.<br /><br />Chesapeake's total drilling and net acquisition costs for the first three quarters of 2008 were $1.35 per mcfe. This calculation excludes costs of $3.3 billion for the acquisition of unproved properties and leasehold (net of sales), $289 million for capitalized interest on unproved properties, $234 million for seismic, and $19 million relating to tax basis step-up and asset retirement obligations, as well as positive revisions of proved reserves from higher natural gas and oil prices. Excluding these items and acquisition and divestiture activity, Chesapeake's exploration and development costs through the drillbit during the first three quarters of 2008 were $1.94 per mcfe. A complete reconciliation of finding and acquisition costs and a roll-forward of proved reserves are presented on page 12 of this release.<br /><br />During the first three quarters of 2008, Chesapeake continued the industry's most active drilling program and drilled 1,435 gross operated wells (1,193 net with an average working interest of 83.1%) and participated in another 1,439 gross wells operated by other companies (195 net with an average working interest of 13.6%). The company's drilling success rate was 99% for company-operated wells and 97% for non-operated wells. Also during the first three quarters of 2008, Chesapeake invested $3.852 billion in operated wells (using an average of 148 operated rigs) and $576 million in non-operated wells (using an average of 118 non-operated rigs) for total drilling, completing and equipping costs of $4.428 billion.<br /><br />As of September 30, 2008, Chesapeake's estimated future net cash flows from proved reserves, discounted at an annual rate of 10% before income taxes (PV-10), were $24.4 billion using field differential adjusted prices of $6.48 per thousand cubic feet of natural gas (mcf) (based on a NYMEX quarter-end price of $7.12 per mcf) and $96.66 per bbl (based on a NYMEX quarter-end price of $100.66 per bbl). Chesapeake's PV-10 changes by approximately $420 million for every $0.10 per mcf change in natural gas prices and approximately $60 million for every $1.00 per bbl change in oil prices. Chesapeake's enterprise value (market equity value plus long-term debt less working capital excluding current portion of derivative assets and liabilities) as of October 29, 2008 was approximately $27 billion.<br /><br />By comparison, the December 31, 2007 PV-10 of the company's proved reserves was $20.6 billion ($15.0 billion applying the SFAS 69 standardized measure) using field differential adjusted prices of $6.19 per mcf (based on a NYMEX year-end price of $6.80 per mcf) and $90.58 per bbl (based on a NYMEX year-end price of $96.00 per bbl). The September 30, 2007 PV-10 of the company's proved reserves was $19.4 billion using field differential adjusted prices of $5.85 per mcf (based on a NYMEX quarter-end price of $6.38 per mcf) and $76.76 per bbl (based on a NYMEX quarter-end price of $81.56 per bbl).<br /><br />The company calculates the standardized measure of future net cash flows in accordance with SFAS 69 only at year end because applicable income tax information on properties, including recently acquired natural gas and oil interests, is not readily available at other times during the year. As a result, the company is not able to reconcile the interim period-end values to the standardized measure at such dates. The only difference between the two measures is that PV-10 is calculated before considering the impact of future income tax expenses, while the standardized measure includes such effects.<br /><br />In addition to the PV-10 value of its proved reserves and the very significant value of its undeveloped leasehold, particularly in the Haynesville, Marcellus, Barnett and Fayetteville shale plays, the net book value of the company's other assets (including gathering systems, compressors, land and buildings, investments and other non-current assets) was $4.9 billion as of September 30, 2008, $3.1 billion as of December 31, 2007 and $2.9 billion as of September 30, 2007.<br /><br />Average Realized Prices, Hedging Results and Hedging Positions Detailed<br /><br />Average prices realized during the 2008 third quarter (including realized gains or losses from natural gas and oil derivatives, but excluding unrealized gains or losses on such derivatives) were $8.02 per mcf and $75.74 per bbl, for a realized natural gas equivalent price of $8.38 per mcfe. Realized gains and losses from natural gas and oil hedging activities during the 2008 third quarter generated a $0.71 loss per mcf and a $37.79 loss per bbl for a 2008 third quarter realized hedging loss of $246 million, or $1.15 per mcfe. Excluding hedging activity, Chesapeake's average realized pricing basis differentials to NYMEX during the 2008 third quarter were a negative $1.52 per mcf and a negative $4.46 per bbl.<br /><br />By comparison, average prices realized during the 2007 third quarter (including realized gains or losses from natural gas and oil derivatives, but excluding unrealized gains or losses on such derivatives) were $7.41 per mcf and $69.25 per bbl, for a realized natural gas equivalent price of $7.76 per mcfe. Realized gains from natural gas and oil hedging activities during the 2007 third quarter generated a $1.70 gain per mcf and a $1.51 loss per bbl for a 2007 third quarter realized hedging gain of $286 million, or $1.53 per mcfe. Excluding hedging activity, Chesapeake's average realized pricing basis differentials to NYMEX during the 2007 third quarter were a negative $0.45 per mcf and a negative $4.62 per bbl.<br /><br />The following tables summarize Chesapeake's open hedge position through swaps and collars as of October 30, 2008. Depending on changes in natural gas and oil futures markets and management's view of underlying natural gas and oil supply and demand trends, Chesapeake may either increase or decrease its hedging positions at any time in the future without notice.<br /><br /> Open Swap Positions as of October 30, 2008<br /><br /> Natural Gas Oil<br /> ----------------- -----------------<br />Quarter or Year % Hedged $ NYMEX % Hedged $ NYMEX<br />============================== ======== ======= ======== =======<br />2008 Q4 62% 9.15 43% 78.09<br />============================== ======== ======= ======== =======<br />2009 Total 38% 9.33 48% 81.19<br />============================== ======== ======= ======== =======<br />2010 Total 40% 9.58 37% 90.25<br />============================== ======== ======= ======== =======<br /><br /> Open Natural Gas Collar Positions as of October 30, 2008<br /><br /> Average Average<br /> Floor Ceiling<br />Quarter or Year % Hedged $ NYMEX $ NYMEX<br />==================================== ========== ========= =========<br />2008 Q4 14% 7.75 9.32<br />==================================== ========== ========= =========<br />2009 Total 30% 7.21 9.27<br />==================================== ========== ========= =========<br />2010 Total 2% 7.71 11.46<br />==================================== ========== ========= =========<br /><br />Certain open natural gas swap positions include knockout swaps with knockout provisions at $6.50 per mcf covering 9 bcf in the 2008 fourth quarter, and prices ranging from $5.65 to $7.25 per mcf covering 150 bcf in 2009 and $5.45 to $7.40 per mcf covering 321 bcf in 2010. Certain open natural gas collar positions include three-way collars that include written put options with strike prices ranging from $5.00 to $6.00 per mcf covering 105 bcf in 2009 and at $6.00 per mcf covering 4 bcf in 2010. Also, certain open oil swap positions include cap-swaps and knockout swaps with provisions limiting the counterparty's exposure below prices ranging from $45 to $60 per bbl covering 1 mmbbls in the 2008 fourth quarter, from $50 to $60 per bbl covering 6 mmbbls in 2009 and $60 per bbl covering 5 mmbbls in 2010. As of October 24, 2008, Chesapeake's natural gas and oil hedging positions with a diversified group of 19 different counterparties had a positive mark-to-market (MTM) value of approximately $1.0 billion.<br /><br />The company's updated forecasts for 2008 through 2010 are attached to this release in an Outlook dated October 30, 2008, labeled as Schedule "A," which begins on page 18. This Outlook has been changed from the Outlook dated October 14, 2008 (attached as Schedule "B," which begins on page 23) to reflect various updated information.<br /><br />Company Continues to Improve Balance Sheet and Liquidity<br /><br />As a result of strong earnings growth and favorable changes in the MTM value of the company's open hedging positions during the 2008 third quarter, Chesapeake's net debt to book capitalization ratio decreased from 57% at June 30, 2008 to 43% at September 30, 2008. The company's goal is to end 2008 with cash and cash equivalents on hand or bank credit availability of approximately $3.0 billion and to generate at least $1.0 billion of excess cash in each of 2009 and 2010. The company's revolving credit facility matures in November 2012 and the first maturity of its senior unsecured notes is in July 2013.<br /><br />Management Comments<br /><br />Aubrey K. McClendon, Chesapeake's Chief Executive Officer, commented, "We are pleased to report our financial and operational results for the 2008 third quarter. During the quarter, we earned almost $3.3 billion, improved our balance sheet and liquidity and closed approximately $7.5 billion of asset monetization transactions. Those transactions included selling a VPP for approximately $600 million in cash, selling 20% of our Haynesville Shale properties for $3.3 billion in cash and drilling carries, selling 25% of our Fayetteville Shale properties for $1.9 billion in cash and drilling carries and selling 100% of our remaining Woodford Shale properties for $1.7 billion in cash. Furthermore we are progressing on additional asset monetizations for the 2008 fourth quarter and we look forward to disclosing the details of these transactions later this quarter.<br /><br />"Although financial market volatility remains high, Chesapeake is very well-positioned to continue growing and creating value in the 2008 fourth quarter and in 2009 and 2010. Our commodity hedges, our Haynesville and Fayetteville Shale drilling cost carries, our progress in the Marcellus Shale and our balance sheet, which has $2.0 billion in cash on it and requires no debt payments for four years, should enable Chesapeake to prosper during these difficult economic times. I am very excited to see the company continue realizing its full potential through the ongoing execution of our successful strategy and the full development of our top-tier properties."<br /><br />Conference Call Information<br /><br />A conference call to discuss this release has been scheduled for Friday morning, October 31, 2008, at 9:00 a.m. EDT. The telephone number to access the conference call is 913-312-1437 or toll-free 888-240-9345. The passcode for the call is 7433119. We encourage those who would like to participate in the call to dial the access number between 8:50 and 9:00 a.m. EDT. For those unable to participate in the conference call, a replay will be available for audio playback from 2:00 p.m. EDT on October 31, 2008 through midnight EST on Friday, November 14, 2008. The number to access the conference call replay is 719-457-0820 or toll-free 888-203-1112. The passcode for the replay is 7433119. The conference call will also be webcast live on the Internet and can be accessed by going to Chesapeake's website at www.chk.com and selecting the "News & Events" section. The webcast of the conference call will be available on our website for one year.<br /><br />This press release and the accompanying Outlooks include "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements give our current expectations or forecasts of future events. They include estimates of natural gas and oil reserves, expected natural gas and oil production and future expenses, assumptions regarding future natural gas and oil prices, planned capital expenditures for drilling, leasehold acquisitions and seismic data and planned asset sales, as well as statements concerning anticipated cash flow and liquidity, business strategy and other plans and objectives for future operations. Disclosures concerning the fair value of derivative contracts and their estimated contribution to our future results of operations are based upon market information as of a specific date. These market prices are subject to significant volatility. We caution you not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this press release, and we undertake no obligation to update this information.<br /><br />Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expected results are described in "Risk Factors" in the Prospectus Supplement we filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on July 10, 2008. These risk factors include the volatility of natural gas and oil prices; the limitations our level of indebtedness may have on our financial flexibility; our ability to compete effectively against strong independent natural gas and oil companies and majors; the availability of capital on an economic basis, including planned asset monetization transactions, to fund reserve replacement costs; our ability to replace reserves and sustain production; uncertainties inherent in estimating quantities of natural gas and oil reserves and projecting future rates of production and the amount and timing of development expenditures; uncertainties in evaluating natural gas and oil reserves of acquired properties and associated potential liabilities; our ability to effectively consolidate and integrate acquired properties and operations; unsuccessful exploration and development drilling; declines in the values of our natural gas and oil properties resulting in ceiling test write-downs; lower prices realized on natural gas and oil sales and collateral required to secure hedging liabilities resulting from our commodity price risk management activities; the negative impact lower natural gas and oil prices could have on our ability to borrow; drilling and operating risks, including potential environmental liabilities; production interruptions that could adversely affect our cash flow; and pending or future litigation.<br /><br />Our production forecasts are dependent upon many assumptions, including estimates of production decline rates from existing wells and the outcome of future drilling activity. Although we believe the expectations and forecasts reflected in these and other forward-looking statements are reasonable, we can give no assurance they will prove to have been correct. They can be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties.<br /><br />Chesapeake Energy Corporation is the largest producer of natural gas in the U.S. Headquartered in Oklahoma City, the company's operations are focused on exploratory and developmental drilling and corporate and property acquisitions in the Fort Worth Barnett Shale, Haynesville Shale, Fayetteville Shale, Anadarko Basin, Arkoma Basin, Appalachian Basin, Permian Basin, Delaware Basin, South Texas, Texas Gulf Coast and Ark-La-Tex regions of the United States. Further information is available at www.chk.com.<br /><br /> CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION<br /> CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS<br /> ($ in millions, except per-share and unit data)<br /> (unaudited)<br /><br /> September 30, September 30,<br /><br />THREE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2007<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /> $ $/mcfe $ $/mcfe<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /><br />REVENUES:<br /> Natural gas and oil sales 6,408 30.01 1,492 8.00<br /> Natural gas and oil marketing<br /> sales 1,038 4.86 501 2.69<br /> Service operations revenue 45 0.21 34 0.18<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /> Total Revenues 7,491 35.08 2,027 10.87<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /><br />OPERATING COSTS:<br /> Production expenses 239 1.12 165 0.89<br /> Production taxes 87 0.41 56 0.30<br /> General and administrative<br /> expenses 108 0.50 62 0.33<br /> Natural gas and oil marketing<br /> expenses 1,014 4.75 483 2.59<br /> Service operations expense 37 0.17 23 0.12<br /> Natural gas and oil<br /> depreciation, depletion and<br /> amortization 480 2.25 479 2.57<br /> Depreciation and amortization<br /> of other assets 48 0.23 44 0.24<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /> Total Operating Costs 2,013 9.43 1,312 7.04<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /><br />INCOME FROM OPERATIONS 5,478 25.65 715 3.83<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /><br />OTHER INCOME (EXPENSE):<br /> Interest and other income (2) (0.01) 1 0.01<br /> Interest expense (48) (0.22) (116) (0.62)<br /> Loss on repurchase of<br /> Chesapeake debt (31) (0.14) -- --<br /> Consent solicitation fees (10) (0.05) -- --<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /> Total Other Income<br /> (Expense) (91) (0.42) (115) (0.61)<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /><br />INCOME BEFORE INCOME TAXES 5,387 25.23 600 3.22<br /><br /> Income Tax Expense:<br /> Current 193 0.90 9 0.05<br /> Deferred 1,881 8.81 219 1.17<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /> Total Income Tax Expense 2,074 9.71 228 1.22<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /><br />NET INCOME 3,313 15.52 372 2.00<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /><br /> Preferred stock dividends (6) (0.03) (26) (0.14)<br /> Loss on conversion/exchange of<br /> preferred stock (25) (0.12) -- --<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /><br />NET INCOME AVAILABLE TO COMMON<br /> SHAREHOLDERS 3,282 15.37 346 1.86<br /> ======== ======== ======== ========<br /><br />EARNINGS PER COMMON SHARE:<br /><br /> Basic $ 5.93 $ 0.76<br /> ======== ========<br /> Assuming dilution $ 5.61 $ 0.72<br /> ======== ========<br /><br />WEIGHTED AVERAGE COMMON AND<br /> COMMON EQUIVALENT SHARES<br /> OUTSTANDING (in millions)<br /><br /> Basic 554 454<br /> ======== ========<br /> Assuming dilution 588 517<br /> ======== ========<br /><br /> CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION<br /> CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS<br /> ($ in millions, except per-share and unit data)<br /> (unaudited)<br /><br /> September 30, September 30,<br /><br />NINE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2007<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /> $ $/mcfe $ $/mcfe<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /><br />REVENUES:<br /> Natural gas and oil sales 5,587 8.87 4,164 8.16<br /> Natural gas and oil marketing<br /> sales 2,934 4.66 1,446 2.84<br /> Service operations revenue 127 0.20 101 0.20<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /> Total Revenues 8,648 13.73 5,711 11.20<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /><br />OPERATING COSTS:<br /> Production expenses 658 1.04 461 0.90<br /> Production taxes 250 0.40 151 0.30<br /> General and administrative<br /> expenses 288 0.46 168 0.33<br /> Natural gas and oil marketing<br /> expenses 2,864 4.55 1,394 2.73<br /> Service operations expense 104 0.16 67 0.13<br /> Natural gas and oil<br /> depreciation, depletion and<br /> amortization 1,518 2.41 1,314 2.58<br /> Depreciation and amortization<br /> of other assets 125 0.20 120 0.24<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /> Total Operating Costs 5,807 9.22 3,675 7.21<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /><br />INCOME FROM OPERATIONS 2,841 4.51 2,036 3.99<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /><br />OTHER INCOME (EXPENSE):<br /> Interest and other income (13) (0.02) 12 0.02<br /> Interest expense (212) (0.33) (279) (0.54)<br /> Gain on sale of investment -- -- 83 0.16<br /> Loss on repurchase of<br /> Chesapeake debt (31) (0.05) -- --<br /> Consent solicitation fees (10) (0.02) -- --<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /> Total Other Income<br /> (Expense) (266) (0.42) (184) (0.36)<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /><br />INCOME BEFORE INCOME TAXES 2,575 4.09 1,852 3.63<br /><br /> Income Tax Expense:<br /> Current 196 0.31 19 0.04<br /> Deferred 795 1.26 685 1.34<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /> Total Income Tax Expense 991 1.57 704 1.38<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /><br />NET INCOME 1,584 2.52 1,148 2.25<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /><br /> Preferred stock dividends (27) (0.04) (77) (0.15)<br /> Loss on conversion/exchange of<br /> preferred stock (67) (0.11) -- --<br /> -------- -------- -------- --------<br /><br />NET INCOME AVAILABLE TO COMMON<br /> SHAREHOLDERS 1,490 2.37 1,071 2.10<br /> ======== ======== ======== ========<br /><br />EARNINGS PER COMMON SHARE:<br /><br /> Basic $ 2.85 $ 2.37<br /> ======== ========<br /> Assuming dilution $ 2.73 $ 2.23<br /> ======== ========<br /><br />WEIGHTED AVERAGE COMMON AND<br /> COMMON EQUIVALENT SHARES<br /> OUTSTANDING (in millions)<br /><br /> Basic 523 452<br /> ======== ========<br /> Assuming dilution 557 516<br /> ======== ========<br /><br /> CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION<br /> CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS<br /> ($ in millions)<br /> (unaudited)<br /><br /> September 30, December 31,<br /> 2008 2007<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />Cash $ 1,964 $ 1<br />Other current assets 2,147 1,395<br /> ------------- ------------<br /> Total Current Assets 4,111 1,396<br /> ------------- ------------<br /><br />Property and equipment (net) 34,845 28,337<br />Other assets 1,062 1,001<br /> ------------- ------------<br /> Total Assets $ 40,018 $ 30,734<br /> ============= ============<br /><br />Current liabilities $ 3,601 $ 2,760<br />Long-term debt, net 14,345 10,950<br />Asset retirement obligation 260 236<br />Other long-term liabilities 715 692<br />Deferred tax liability 4,690 3,966<br /> ------------- ------------<br /> Total Liabilities 23,611 18,604<br /><br />Stockholders' Equity 16,407 12,130<br /> ------------- ------------<br /><br />Total Liabilities & Stockholders' Equity $ 40,018 $ 30,734<br /> ============= ============<br /><br />Common Shares Outstanding (in millions) 581 511<br /> ============= ============<br /><br /> CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION<br /> CAPITALIZATION<br /> ($ in millions)<br /> (unaudited)<br /><br /><br /> % of Total % of Total<br /> September 30, Book June 30, Book<br /> 2008 Capitalization 2008 Capitalization<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />Total debt, net<br /> cash $ 12,381 43% $ 13,703 57%<br />Stockholders'<br /> equity 16,407 57% 10,276 43%<br /> ------------- -------------- ---------- --------------<br /> Total $ 28,788 100% $ 23,979 100%<br /> ============= ============== ========== ==============<br /><br /> % of Total<br /> December 31, Book<br /> 2007 Capitalization<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />Total debt, net cash $ 10,949 47%<br />Stockholders' equity 12,130 53%<br /> -------------- ----------------<br /> Total $ 23,079 100%<br /> ============== ================<br /><br /> CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION<br /> RECONCILIATION OF 2008 ADDITIONS TO NATURAL GAS AND OIL PROPERTIES<br /> ($ in millions, except per-unit data)<br /> (unaudited)<br /><br /> Reserves<br /> Cost (in bcfe) $/mcfe<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />Exploration and development costs $ 4,428 2,286(a) 1.94<br />Acquisition of proved properties 357 165 2.16<br />Sale of proved properties (2,335) (638) 3.66<br /> --------- --------- --------<br /> Drilling and net acquisition cost 2,450 1,813 1.35<br /> --------- --------- --------<br /><br />Revisions - price -- 13 --<br /><br />Acquisition of unproved properties and<br /> leasehold 6,931 -- --<br />Sale of unproved properties and leasehold (3,587) -- --<br /> --------- --------- --------<br /> Net leasehold and unproved<br /> property acquisition 3,344 -- --<br /> --------- --------- --------<br /><br />Capitalized interest on leasehold and<br /> unproved property 289 -- --<br />Geological and geophysical costs 234 -- --<br /> --------- --------- --------<br /> Geological, geophysical and<br /> capitalized interest 523 -- --<br /> --------- --------- --------<br /><br /> Subtotal 6,317 1,826 3.46<br /> --------- --------- --------<br /><br />Tax basis step-up 13 -- --<br />Asset retirement obligation and other 6 -- --<br /> --------- --------- --------<br /> Total $ 6,336 1,826 3.47<br /> ========= ========= --------<br /><br />(a) Includes 1,128 bcfe of positive performance revisions (987 bcfe relating to infill drilling and increased density locations and 141 bcfe of other performance related revisions) and excludes positive revisions of 13 bcfe resulting from natural gas and oil price increases between December 31, 2007 and September 30, 2008.<br /><br /> CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION<br /> ROLL-FORWARD OF PROVED RESERVES<br /> NINE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2008<br /> (unaudited)<br /><br /> Bcfe<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />Beginning balance, 01/01/08 10,879<br />Production (630)<br />Acquisitions 165<br />Divestitures (638)<br />Revisions - performance 1,128<br />Revisions - price 13<br />Extensions and discoveries 1,158<br /> -----------<br />Ending balance, 09/30/08 12,075<br /> ===========<br /><br />Reserve replacement 1,826<br />Reserve replacement ratio (a) 290%<br /><br />(a) The company uses the reserve replacement ratio as an indicator of the company's ability to replenish annual production volumes and grow its reserves. It should be noted that the reserve replacement ratio is a statistical indicator that has limitations. The ratio is limited because it typically varies widely based on the extent and timing of new discoveries and property acquisitions. Its predictive and comparative value is also limited for the same reasons. In addition, since the ratio does not embed the cost or timing of future production of new reserves, it cannot be used as a measure of value creation.<br /><br /> CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION<br /> SUPPLEMENTAL DATA - NATURAL GAS AND OIL SALES AND INTEREST EXPENSE<br /> (unaudited)<br /><br /> THREE MONTHS ENDED NINE MONTHS ENDED<br /> September 30, September 30,<br /> ------------------- -------------------<br /> 2008 2007 2008 2007<br /> --------- --------- --------- ---------<br />Natural Gas and Oil Sales ($<br /> in millions):<br /> Natural gas sales $ 1,717 $ 971 $ 5,046 $ 2,918<br /> Natural gas derivatives -<br /> realized gains (losses) (140) 290 (174) 890<br /> Natural gas derivatives -<br /> unrealized gains<br /> (losses) 3,854 73 325 (58)<br /> --------- --------- --------- ---------<br /><br /> Total Natural Gas<br /> Sales 5,431 1,334 5,197 3,750<br /> --------- --------- --------- ---------<br /><br /> Oil sales 319 190 915 443<br /> Oil derivatives -<br /> realized gains (losses) (106) (4) (280) 26<br /> Oil derivatives -<br /> unrealized gains<br /> (losses) 764 (28) (245) (55)<br /> --------- --------- --------- ---------<br /><br /> Total Oil Sales 977 158 390 414<br /> --------- --------- --------- ---------<br /><br /> Total Natural Gas and<br /> Oil Sales $ 6,408 $ 1,492 $ 5,587 $ 4,164<br /> ========= ========= ========= =========<br /><br />Average Sales Price -<br /> excluding gains (losses) on<br /> derivatives:<br /> Natural gas ($ per mcf) $ 8.73 $ 5.71 $ 8.71 $ 6.25<br /> Oil ($ per bbl) $113.53 $ 70.76 $109.28 $ 61.91<br /> Natural gas equivalent ($<br /> per mcfe) $ 9.54 $ 6.23 $ 9.47 $ 6.59<br /><br />Average Sales Price -<br /> excluding unrealized gains<br /> (losses) on derivatives:<br /> Natural gas ($ per mcf) $ 8.02 $ 7.41 $ 8.41 $ 8.15<br /> Oil ($ per bbl) $ 75.74 $ 69.25 $ 75.82 $ 65.55<br /> Natural gas equivalent ($<br /> per mcfe) $ 8.38 $ 7.76 $ 8.75 $ 8.39<br /><br />Interest Expense ($ in<br /> millions):<br /> Interest $ 51 $ 98 $ 220 $ 266<br /> Derivatives - realized<br /> (gains) losses 5 (1) 1 --<br /> Derivatives - unrealized<br /> (gains) losses (8) 19 (9) 13<br /> --------- --------- --------- ---------<br /> Total Interest<br /> Expense $ 48 $ 116 $ 212 279<br /> ========= ========= ========= =========<br /><br /> CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION<br /> CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED CASH FLOW DATA<br /> ($ in millions)<br /> (unaudited)<br /><br /> September 30, September 30,<br /><br />THREE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2007<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />Beginning cash $ 1 $ 4<br />Cash provided by operating activities 1,550 1,267<br />Cash (used in) investing activities (1,872) (2,485)<br />Cash provided by financing activities 2,285 1,216<br />Ending cash 1,964 2<br /><br /><br />======================================================================<br /><br /><br /> September 30, September 30,<br /><br />NINE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2007<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />Beginning cash $ 1 $ 3<br />Cash provided by operating activities 4,305 3,389<br />Cash (used in) investing activities (8,201) (6,488)<br />Cash provided by financing activities 5,859 3,098<br />Ending cash 1,964 2<br /><br /><br /> CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION<br /> RECONCILIATION OF OPERATING CASH FLOW AND EBITDA<br /> ($ in millions)<br /> (unaudited)<br /><br /> September 30, June 30, September 30,<br /><br />THREE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2008 2007<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />CASH PROVIDED BY OPERATING<br /> ACTIVITIES $ 1,550 $ 1,256 $ 1,267<br /><br />Adjustments:<br /> Changes in assets and<br /> liabilities (150) 187 (182)<br /> ------------- ------------- -------------<br /><br />OPERATING CASH FLOW(1) $ 1,400 $ 1,443 $ 1,085<br /> ============= ============= =============<br /><br />(1) Operating cash flow represents net cash provided by operating activities before changes in assets and liabilities. Operating cash flow is presented because management believes it is a useful adjunct to net cash provided by operating activities under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States (GAAP). Operating cash flow is widely accepted as a financial indicator of a natural gas and oil company's ability to generate cash which is used to internally fund exploration and development activities and to service debt. This measure is widely used by investors and rating agencies in the valuation, comparison, rating and investment recommendations of companies within the natural gas and oil exploration and production industry. Operating cash flow is not a measure of financial performance under GAAP and should not be considered as an alternative to cash flows from operating, investing or financing activities as an indicator of cash flows, or as a measure of liquidity.<br /><br /> September 30, June 30, September 30,<br /><br />THREE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2008 2007<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />NET INCOME (LOSS) $ 3,313 $ (1,597) $ 372<br /><br />Income tax expense (benefit) 2,074 (1,000) 228<br />Interest expense 48 63 116<br />Depreciation and<br /> amortization of other<br /> assets 48 40 44<br />Natural gas and oil<br /> depreciation, depletion and<br /> amortization 480 523 479<br /> ------------- ------------- -------------<br /><br />EBITDA(2) $ 5,963 $ (1,971) $ 1,239<br /> ============= ============= =============<br /><br />(2) Ebitda represents net income (loss) before income tax expense, interest expense and depreciation, depletion and amortization expense. Ebitda is presented as a supplemental financial measurement in the evaluation of our business. We believe that it provides additional information regarding our ability to meet our future debt service, capital expenditures and working capital requirements. This measure is widely used by investors and rating agencies in the valuation, comparison, rating and investment recommendations of companies. Ebitda is also a financial measurement that, with certain negotiated adjustments, is reported to our lenders pursuant to our bank credit agreement and is used in the financial covenants in our bank credit agreement and our senior note indentures. Ebitda is not a measure of financial performance under GAAP. Accordingly, it should not be considered as a substitute for net income, income from operations, or cash flow provided by operating activities prepared in accordance with GAAP. Ebitda is reconciled to cash provided by operating activities as follows:<br /><br /> September 30, June 30, September 30,<br /><br />THREE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2008 2007<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />CASH PROVIDED BY OPERATING<br /> ACTIVITIES $ 1,550 $ 1,256 $ 1,267<br /><br />Changes in assets and<br /> liabilities (150) 187 (182)<br />Interest expense 48 63 116<br />Unrealized gains (losses) on<br /> natural gas and oil<br /> derivatives 4,618 (3,404) 45<br />Other non-cash items (103) (73) (7)<br /> ------------- ------------- -------------<br /><br />EBITDA $ 5,963 $ (1,971) $ 1,239<br /> ============= ============= =============<br /><br /> CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION<br /> RECONCILIATION OF OPERATING CASH FLOW AND EBITDA<br /> ($ in millions)<br /> (unaudited)<br /><br /> September 30, September 30,<br /><br />NINE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2007<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />CASH PROVIDED BY OPERATING ACTIVITIES $ 4,305 $ 3,389<br /><br />Adjustments:<br /> Changes in assets and liabilities 49 (104)<br /> ------------- -------------<br /><br />OPERATING CASH FLOW(1) $ 4,354 $ 3,285<br /> ============= =============<br /><br />(1) Operating cash flow represents net cash provided by operating activities before changes in assets and liabilities. Operating cash flow is presented because management believes it is a useful adjunct to net cash provided by operating activities under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States (GAAP). Operating cash flow is widely accepted as a financial indicator of a natural gas and oil company's ability to generate cash which is used to internally fund exploration and development activities and to service debt. This measure is widely used by investors and rating agencies in the valuation, comparison, rating and investment recommendations of companies within the natural gas and oil exploration and production industry. Operating cash flow is not a measure of financial performance under GAAP and should not be considered as an alternative to cash flows from operating, investing or financing activities as an indicator of cash flows, or as a measure of liquidity.<br /><br /> September 30, September 30,<br /><br />NINE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2007<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />NET INCOME $ 1,584 $ 1,148<br /><br />Income tax expense (benefit) 991 704<br />Interest expense 212 279<br />Depreciation and amortization of other<br /> assets 125 120<br />Natural gas and oil depreciation,<br /> depletion and amortization 1,518 1,314<br /> ------------- -------------<br /><br />EBITDA(2) $ 4,430 $ 3,565<br /> ============= =============<br /><br />(2) Ebitda represents net income (loss) before income tax expense, interest expense and depreciation, depletion and amortization expense. Ebitda is presented as a supplemental financial measurement in the evaluation of our business. We believe that it provides additional information regarding our ability to meet our future debt service, capital expenditures and working capital requirements. This measure is widely used by investors and rating agencies in the valuation, comparison, rating and investment recommendations of companies. Ebitda is also a financial measurement that, with certain negotiated adjustments, is reported to our lenders pursuant to our bank credit agreement and is used in the financial covenants in our bank credit agreement and our senior note indentures. Ebitda is not a measure of financial performance under GAAP. Accordingly, it should not be considered as a substitute for net income, income from operations, or cash flow provided by operating activities prepared in accordance with GAAP. Ebitda is reconciled to cash provided by operating activities as follows:<br /><br /> September 30, September 30,<br /><br />NINE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2007<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />CASH PROVIDED BY OPERATING ACTIVITIES $ 4,305 $ 3,389<br /><br />Changes in assets and liabilities 49 (104)<br />Interest expense 212 279<br />Unrealized gains (losses) on natural gas<br /> and oil derivatives 80 (113)<br />Other noncash items (216) 114<br /> ------------- -------------<br /><br />EBITDA $ 4,430 $ 3,565<br /> ============= =============<br /><br /> CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION<br />RECONCILIATION OF ADJUSTED NET INCOME AVAILABLE TO COMMON SHAREHOLDERS<br /> ($ in millions, except per-share data)<br /> (unaudited)<br /><br /> September 30, June 30, September 30,<br />THREE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2008 2007<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />Net income (loss) available<br /> to common shareholders $ 3,282 $ (1,649) $ 346<br /><br />Adjustments:<br /> Unrealized (gains) losses<br /> on derivatives, net of<br /> tax (2,846) 2,085 (16)<br /> Loss on repurchase of<br /> Chesapeake debt, net of<br /> tax 19 -- --<br /> Consent fees on senior<br /> notes, net of tax 6 -- --<br /> Loss on<br /> conversion/exchange of<br /> preferred stock 25 43 --<br /> ------------- ------------- -------------<br /><br />Adjusted net income<br /> available to common<br /> shareholders(1) 486 479 330<br /> Preferred stock dividends 6 9 26<br /> Interest on 2.75%<br /> contingent convertible<br /> notes, net of tax 3 3 --<br /> Interest on 2.50%<br /> contingent convertible<br /> notes, net of tax 7 -- --<br /> ------------- ------------- -------------<br />Total adjusted net income $ 502 $ 491 $ 356<br /> ============= ============= =============<br /><br />Weighted average fully<br /> diluted shares<br /> outstanding(2) 589 553 517<br /><br />Adjusted earnings per share<br /> assuming dilution(1) $ 0.85 $ 0.89 $ 0.69<br /> ============= ============= =============<br /><br />(1) Adjusted net income available to common and adjusted earnings per share assuming dilution exclude certain items that management believes affect the comparability of operating results. The company discloses these non-GAAP financial measures as a useful adjunct to GAAP earnings because:<br /><br />(a) Management uses adjusted net income available to common to evaluate the company's operational trends and performance relative to other natural gas and oil producing companies.<br /><br />(b) Adjusted net income available to common is more comparable to earnings estimates provided by securities analysts.<br /><br />(c) Items excluded generally are one-time items or items whose timing or amount cannot be reasonably estimated. Accordingly, any guidance provided by the company generally excludes information regarding these types of items.<br /><br />(2) Weighted average fully diluted shares outstanding include shares that were considered antidilutive for calculating earnings per share in accordance with GAAP.<br /><br /> CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION<br /> RECONCILIATION OF ADJUSTED EBITDA<br /> ($ in millions)<br /> (unaudited)<br /><br /> September 30, June 30, September 30,<br />THREE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2008 2007<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />EBITDA $ 5,963 $ (1,971) $ 1,239<br /><br />Adjustments, before tax:<br /> Unrealized (gains) losses<br /> on natural gas and oil<br /> derivatives (4,618) 3,406 (45)<br /> Loss on repurchase of<br /> Chesapeake debt 31 -- --<br /> Consent fees on senior<br /> notes 10 -- --<br /> ------------- ------------- -------------<br /><br />Adjusted ebitda(1) $ 1,386 $ 1,435 $ 1,194<br /> ============= ============= =============<br /><br />(1) Adjusted ebitda excludes certain items that management believes affect the comparability of operating results. The company discloses these non-GAAP financial measures as a useful adjunct to ebitda because:<br /><br />(a) Management uses adjusted ebitda to evaluate the company's operational trends and performance relative to other natural gas and oil producing companies.<br /><br />(b) Adjusted ebitda is more comparable to estimates provided by securities analysts.<br /><br />(c) Items excluded generally are one-time items or items whose timing or amount cannot be reasonably estimated. Accordingly, any guidance provided by the company generally excludes information regarding these types of items.<br /><br /> CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION<br />RECONCILIATION OF ADJUSTED NET INCOME AVAILABLE TO COMMON SHAREHOLDERS<br /> ($ in millions, except per-share data)<br /> (unaudited)<br /><br /> September 30, September 30,<br />NINE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2007<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />Net income available to common<br /> shareholders $ 1,490 $ 1,071<br /><br />Adjustments:<br /> Unrealized (gains) losses on<br /> derivatives, net of tax (55) 78<br /> Gain on sale of investment, net of<br /> cash -- (51)<br /> Loss on repurchase of Chesapeake debt,<br /> net of tax 19 --<br /> Consent fees on senior notes, net of<br /> tax 6 --<br /> Loss on conversion/exchange of<br /> preferred stock 67 --<br /> ------------- -------------<br /><br />Adjusted net income available to common<br /> shareholders(1) 1,527 1,098<br /> Preferred stock dividends 27 77<br /> Interest on 2.75% contingent<br /> convertible notes, net of tax 5 --<br /> Interest on 2.50% contingent<br /> convertible notes, net of tax 7 --<br /> ------------- -------------<br /><br />Total adjusted net income $ 1,566 $ 1,175<br /> ============= =============<br /><br />Weighted average fully diluted shares<br /> outstanding(2) 564 516<br /><br />Adjusted earnings per share assuming<br /> dilution(1) $ 2.78 $ 2.28<br /> ============= =============<br /><br />(1) Adjusted net income available to common and adjusted earnings per share assuming dilution exclude certain items that management believes affect the comparability of operating results. The company discloses these non-GAAP financial measures as a useful adjunct to GAAP earnings because:<br /><br />(a) Management uses adjusted net income available to common to evaluate the company's operational trends and performance relative to other natural gas and oil producing companies.<br /><br />(b) Adjusted net income available to common is more comparable to earnings estimates provided by securities analysts.<br /><br />(c) Items excluded generally are one-time items or items whose timing or amount cannot be reasonably estimated. Accordingly, any guidance provided by the company generally excludes information regarding these types of items.<br /><br />(2) Weighted average fully diluted shares outstanding include shares that were considered antidilutive for calculating earnings per share in accordance with GAAP.<br /><br /> CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION<br /> RECONCILIATION OF ADJUSTED EBITDA<br /> ($ in millions)<br /> (unaudited)<br /><br /> September 30, September 30,<br />NINE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2007<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />EBITDA $ 4,430 $ 3,565<br /><br />Adjustments, before tax:<br /> Unrealized (gains) losses on natural<br /> gas and oil derivatives (80) 113<br /> Gain on sale of investment -- (83)<br /> Loss on repurchase of Chesapeake debt 31 --<br /> Consent fees on senior notes 10 --<br /> ------------- -------------<br /><br />Adjusted ebitda(1) $ 4,391 $ 3,595<br /> ============= =============<br /><br />(1) Adjusted ebitda excludes certain items that management believes affect the comparability of operating results. The company discloses these non-GAAP financial measures as a useful adjunct to ebitda because:<br /><br />(a) Management uses adjusted ebitda to evaluate the company's operational trends and performance relative to other natural gas and oil producing companies.<br /><br />(b) Adjusted ebitda is more comparable to estimates provided by securities analysts.<br /><br />(c) Items excluded generally are one-time items or items whose timing or amount cannot be reasonably estimated. Accordingly, any guidance provided by the company generally excludes information regarding these types of items.<br /><br />SCHEDULE "A"<br /><br />CHESAPEAKE'S OUTLOOK AS OF OCTOBER 30, 2008<br /><br />Quarter Ending December 31, 2008 and Years Ending December 31, 2009 and 2010.<br /><br />We have adopted a policy of periodically providing guidance on certain factors that affect our future financial performance. As of October 30, 2008, we are using the following key assumptions in our projections for the fourth quarter of 2008 and the full years 2009 and 2010.<br /><br />The primary changes from our October 14, 2008 Outlook are in italicized bold and are explained as follows:<br /><br />1) Natural gas production assumption for the quarter ending 12/31/08 has been reduced to reflect anticipated voluntary curtailments due to low wellhead price realizations;<br /><br />2) Projected effects of changes in our hedging positions have been updated;<br /><br />3) Our NYMEX natural gas and oil price assumptions for realized hedging effects and estimating future operating cash flow have been reduced for the quarter ending 12/31/08; and<br /><br />4) Certain cost and cash income tax assumptions have been updated.<br /><br /> Quarter Ending Year Ending Year Ending<br /> 12/31/2008 12/31/2009 12/31/2010<br /> -------------- ------------ -------------<br />Estimated Production(a)<br /> Natural gas - bcf 188 - 192 893 - 913 1,032 - 1,072<br /> Oil - mbbls 2,825 12,000 13,000<br /> Natural gas equivalent -<br /> bcfe 205 - 209 965 - 985 1,110 -1,150<br /><br />Daily natural gas equivalent<br /> midpoint - mmcfe 2,250 2,670 3,095<br /><br />Year-over-year production<br /> increase 1.4% 16.8% 15.9%<br /><br />NYMEX Prices (b) (for calculation of realized hedging effects only):<br /> Natural gas - $/mcf $7.00 $8.00 $8.00<br /> Oil - $/bbl $60.00 $80.00 $80.00<br />Estimated Realized Hedging Effects (based on assumed NYMEX prices<br /> above):<br /> Natural gas - $/mcf $1.96 $0.70 $0.82<br /> Oil - $/bbl $5.48 $1.32 $4.79<br />Estimated Differentials to<br /> NYMEX Prices:<br /> Natural gas - $/mcf 10 - 14% 10 - 14% 10 - 14%<br /> Oil - $/bbl 5 - 7% 5 - 7% 5 - 7%<br />Operating Costs per Mcfe of Projected Production:<br /> Production expense $1.00 - 1.15 $1.10 - 1.20 $1.15 - 1.25<br /> Production taxes (about<br /> 5% of O&G revenues) (c) $0.30 - 0.35 $0.35 - 0.40 $0.35 - 0.40<br /> General and<br /> administrative(d) $0.33 - 0.37 $0.33 - 0.37 $0.33 - 0.37<br /> Stock-based compensation<br /> (non-cash) $0.10 - 0.13 $0.10 - 0.12 $0.10 - 0.12<br /> DD&A of natural gas and<br /> oil assets $2.25 - 2.30 $2.20 - 2.30 $2.15 - 2.25<br /> Depreciation of other<br /> assets $0.20 - 0.25 $0.20 - 0.24 $0.20 - 0.24<br /> Interest expense(e) $0.30 - 0.35 $0.40 - 0.45 $0.35 - 0.40<br />Other Income per Mcfe:<br /> Natural gas and oil<br /> marketing income $0.09 - 0.11 $0.09 - 0.11 $0.09 - 0.11<br /> Service operations income $0.04 - 0.06 $0.04 - 0.06 $0.04 - 0.06<br />Book Tax Rate 38.5% 38.5% 38.5%<br />Cash Income Taxes - in<br /> millions $550 - 650 $200 - 300 $200 - 300<br /><br />Equivalent Shares<br /> Outstanding - in millions:<br /> Basic 560 - 565 565 - 570 575 - 580<br /> Diluted 580 - 585 585 - 590 595 - 600<br /><br />Cash Flow<br /> Projections - in Quarter Ending Year Ending Year Ending<br /> millions 12/31/2008 12/31/2009 12/31/2010<br /> --------------- ----------------- -----------------<br />Net inflows:<br />------------------<br /> Operating cash<br /> flow before<br /> changes in<br /> assets and<br /> liabilities<br /> (f)(g) $1,250 - 1,375 $5,800 - 6,000 $6,250 - 6,750<br /> Leasehold and<br /> producing<br /> property<br /> transactions:<br />------------------<br /> Sale of<br /> leasehold<br /> and<br /> producing<br /> properties<br /> (a) $2,100 - 2,500 $1,250 - 2,000 $1,250 - 2,000<br /> Sale of<br /> producing<br /> properties<br /> via VPP's(a) $400 - 500 $1,000 - 1,250 $1,000 - 1,250<br /> Acquisition<br /> of leasehold<br /> and<br /> producing<br /> properties ($750 - $1,000) ($1,250 - $1,750) ($1,000 - $1,500)<br />------------------ --------------- ----------------- -----------------<br /> Net leasehold<br /> and<br /> producing<br /> property<br /> transactions $1,750 - 2,000 $1,000 - 1,500 $1,250 - 1,750<br /> Debt and equity<br /> offerings - - -<br /> Midstream<br /> financings $1,050 - 1,275 $500 - 700 $500 - 700<br /> Proceeds from<br /> investments and<br /> other - $500- 750 $150 - 250<br /> --------------- ----------------- -----------------<br />Total Cash Inflows $4,050 - 4,650 $7,800 - 8,950 $8,150 - 9,450<br /> =============== ================= =================<br /><br />Net outflows:<br />------------------<br /> Drilling $1,200 - 1,300 $4,250 - 4,750 $4,750 - 5,250<br /> Geophysical<br /> costs $75 $225 - 275 $225 - 275<br /> Midstream<br /> infrastructure<br /> and compression $300 - 325 $1,000 - 1,200 $900 - 1,000<br /> Other PP&E $50 - 75 $250 - 300 $250 - 300<br /> Dividends,<br /> senior notes<br /> redemption,<br /> capitalized<br /> interest, etc. $150 - 200 $575 - 600 $575 - 600<br /> Cash income<br /> taxes $550 - 650 $200 - 300 $200 - 300<br /> --------------- ----------------- -----------------<br />Total Cash<br /> Outflows $2,325 - 2,625 $6,500 - 7,425 $6,900 - 7,725<br /> =============== ================= =================<br /><br />Net Cash Change $1,725 - 2,025 $1,300 -1,525 $1,250 - 1,725<br /> =============== ================= =================<br /><br />(a) The 2008 fourth quarter production and cash flow forecasts reflect anticipated sales by the company of: 1) producing properties for approximately $450 million in a volumetric production payment (VPP); and 2) producing properties in South Texas and undeveloped leasehold in the Marcellus Shale and other areas for approximately $2.3 billion. The 2009 and 2010 production and cash flow forecasts reflect anticipated sales by the company of: 1) producing properties for approximately $1.1 billion in each year in VPP transactions; and 2) undeveloped leasehold or other producing properties for approximately $1.6 billion in each year.<br /><br />(b) NYMEX natural gas prices have been updated for actual contract prices through October 2008.<br /><br />(c) Severance tax per mcfe is based on NYMEX prices of $60.00 per bbl of oil and $6.50 to $7.50 per mcf of natural gas during the 2008 fourth quarter; $80.00 per bbl of oil and $7.50 to $8.50 per mcf of natural gas during 2009; and $80.00 per bbl of oil and $7.50 to $8.50 per mcf of natural gas during 2010.<br /><br />(d) Excludes expenses associated with noncash stock compensation.<br /><br />(e) Does not include gains or losses on interest rate derivatives (SFAS 133).<br /><br />(f) A non-GAAP financial measure. We are unable to provide a reconciliation to projected cash provided by operating activities, the most comparable GAAP measure, because of uncertainties associated with projecting future changes in assets and liabilities.<br /><br />(g) Assumes NYMEX natural gas prices of $6.50 to $7.50 per mcf and NYMEX oil prices of $60.00 per bbl in the 2008 fourth quarter and NYMEX natural gas prices of $7.00 to $8.00 per mcf and NYMEX oil prices of $80.00 per bbl in 2009 and 2010.<br /><br />Commodity Hedging Activities<br /><br />The company utilizes hedging strategies to hedge the price of a portion of its future natural gas and oil production. These strategies include:<br /><br />(i) For swap instruments, Chesapeake receives a fixed price and pays a floating market price to the counterparty. The fixed-price payment and the floating-price payment are netted, resulting in a net amount due to or from the counterparty.<br /><br />(ii) Basis protection swaps are arrangements that guarantee a price differential for oil or natural gas from a specified delivery point. For Mid-Continent basis protection swaps, which have negative differentials to NYMEX, Chesapeake receives a payment from the counterparty if the price differential is greater than the stated terms of the contract and pays the counterparty if the price differential is less than the stated terms of the contract. For Appalachian basis protection swaps, which have positive differentials to NYMEX, Chesapeake receives a payment from the counterparty if the price differential is less than the stated terms of the contract and pays the counterparty if the price differential is greater than the stated terms of the contract.<br /><br />(iii) For knockout swaps, Chesapeake receives a fixed price and pays a floating market price. The fixed price received by Chesapeake includes a premium in exchange for the possibility to reduce the counterparty's exposure to zero, in any given month, if the floating market price is lower than certain predetermined knockout prices.<br /><br />(iv) For cap-swaps, Chesapeake receives a fixed price and pays a floating market price. The fixed price received by Chesapeake includes a premium in exchange for a "cap" limiting the counterparty's exposure. In other words, there is no limit to Chesapeake's exposure but there is a limit to the downside exposure of the counterparty<br /><br />(v) For written call options, Chesapeake receives a premium from the counterparty in exchange for the sale of a call option. If the market price exceeds the fixed price of the call option, Chesapeake pays the counterparty such excess. If the market price settles below the fixed price of the call option, no payment is due from Chesapeake.<br /><br />(vi) Collars contain a fixed floor price (put) and ceiling price (call). If the market price exceeds the call strike price or falls below the put strike price, Chesapeake receives the fixed price and pays the market price. If the market price is between the call and the put strike price, no payments are due from either party.<br /><br />(vii) A three-way collar contract consists of a standard collar contract plus a written put option with a strike price below the floor price of the collar. In addition to the settlement of the collar, the put option requires Chesapeake to make a payment to the counterparty equal to the difference between the put option price and the settlement price if the settlement price for any settlement period is below the put option strike price.<br /><br />Commodity markets are volatile, and as a result, Chesapeake's hedging activity is dynamic. As market conditions warrant, the company may elect to settle a hedging transaction prior to its scheduled maturity date and lock in the gain or loss on the transaction.<br /><br />Chesapeake enters into natural gas and oil derivative transactions in order to mitigate a portion of its exposure to adverse market changes in natural gas and oil prices. Accordingly, associated gains or losses from the derivative transactions are reflected as adjustments to natural gas and oil sales. All realized gains and losses from natural gas and oil derivatives are included in natural gas and oil sales in the month of related production. Pursuant to SFAS 133, certain derivatives do not qualify for designation as cash flow hedges. Changes in the fair value of these nonqualifying derivatives that occur prior to their maturity (i.e., because of temporary fluctuations in value) are reported currently in the consolidated statement of operations as unrealized gains (losses) within natural gas and oil sales.<br /><br />Following provisions of SFAS 133, changes in the fair value of derivative instruments designated as cash flow hedges, to the extent effective in offsetting cash flows attributable to hedged risk, are recorded in other comprehensive income until the hedged item is recognized in earnings. Any change in fair value resulting from ineffectiveness is recognized currently in natural gas and oil sales.<br /><br />Excluding the swaps assumed in connection with the acquisition of CNR which are described below, the company currently has the following open natural gas swaps in place and also has the following gains (losses) from lifted natural gas swaps:<br /><br /> Total<br /> Open Swap Lifted<br /> Positions Total Gain<br /> Avg. as a Gains (Loss) per<br /> NYMEX Assuming % of (Losses) Mcf of<br /> Strike Natural Estimated from Estimated<br /> Open Price Gas Total Lifted Total<br /> Swaps of Production Natural Swaps Natural<br /> in Open in Bcf's Gas ($ Gas<br /> Bcf's Swaps of: Production millions) Production<br />======================================================================<br />Q4 2008 108.2 $9.27 190 57% $85.2 $0.45<br />======================================================================<br /><br />======================================================================<br />Total<br /> 2009(1) 327.7 $9.43 903 36% ($36.7) ($0.04)<br />======================================================================<br /><br />======================================================================<br />Total<br /> 2010(1) 422.6 $9.58 1,052 40% $33.9 $0.03<br />======================================================================<br /><br />(1) Certain hedging arrangements include knockout swaps with provisions limiting the counterparty's exposure below $6.50 covering 9 bcf in 2008 and prices ranging from $5.65 to $7.25 covering 150 bcf in 2009 and $5.45 to $7.40 covering 321 bcf in 2010.<br /><br />The company currently has the following open natural gas collars in place:<br /><br /> Open Collars<br /> Assuming as a % of<br /> Natural Gas Estimated<br /> Open Avg. NYMEX Avg. NYMEX Production Total<br /> Collars Floor Ceiling in Bcf's Natural Gas<br /> in Bcf's Price Price of: Production<br />======================================================================<br />Q4 2008 26.6 $7.75 $9.32 190 14%<br />======================================================================<br /><br />======================================================================<br />Total 2009(1) 267.5 $7.21 $9.27 903 30%<br />======================================================================<br /><br />======================================================================<br />Total 2010(1) 25.6 $7.71 $11.46 1,052 2%<br />======================================================================<br /><br />(1) Certain collar arrangements include three-way collars that include written put options with strike prices ranging from $5.00 to $6.00 covering 105 bcf in 2009 and at $6.00 covering 4 bcf in 2010.<br /><br />The company currently has the following natural gas written call options in place:<br /><br /> Call Options<br /> Assuming as a % of<br /> Call Avg. Natural Gas Estimated Total<br /> Options Avg. NYMEX Premium Production Natural Gas<br /> in Bcf's Call Price per mcf in Bcf's of: Production<br />======================================================================<br />Q4 2008 32.2 $10.37 $0.74 190 17%<br />======================================================================<br /><br />======================================================================<br />Total 2009 216.2 $11.40 $0.63 903 24%<br />======================================================================<br /><br />======================================================================<br />Total 2010 231.8 $10.77 $0.72 1,052 22%<br />======================================================================<br /><br />The company has the following natural gas basis protection swaps in place:<br /><br /> Mid-Continent Appalachia<br /> --------------------- ---------------------<br /> Volume in NYMEX Volume in NYMEX<br /> Bcf's less(1): Bcf's plus(1):<br /> --------- ---------- --------- ----------<br />Q4 2008 32.1 $ 0.45 5.8 $ 0.33<br />2009 77.1 0.35 16.9 0.28<br />2010 -- -- 10.2 0.26<br />2011 45.1 0.64 12.1 0.25<br />2012 43.2 0.48 -- --<br /> --------- ---------- --------- ----------<br />Totals 197.5 $ 0.46 45.0 $ 0.27<br /> ========= ========== ========= ==========<br /><br />(1) weighted average<br /><br />We assumed certain liabilities related to open derivative positions in connection with the CNR acquisition in November 2005. In accordance with SFAS 141, these derivative positions were recorded at fair value in the purchase price allocation as a liability of $592 million ($76 million as of September 30, 2008). The recognition of the derivative liability and other assumed liabilities resulted in an increase in the total purchase price which was allocated to the assets acquired. Because of this accounting treatment, only cash settlements for changes in fair value subsequent to the acquisition date for the derivative positions assumed result in adjustments to our natural gas and oil revenues upon settlement. For example, if the fair value of the derivative positions assumed does not change, then upon the sale of the underlying production and corresponding settlement of the derivative positions, cash would be paid to the counterparties and there would be no adjustment to natural gas and oil revenues related to the derivative positions. If, however, the actual sales price is different from the price assumed in the original fair value calculation, the difference would be reflected as either a decrease or increase in natural gas and oil revenues, depending upon whether the sales price was higher or lower, respectively, than the prices assumed in the original fair value calculation. For accounting purposes, the net effect of these acquired hedges is that we hedged the production volumes listed below at their fair values on the date of our acquisition of CNR.<br /><br />Pursuant to SFAS 149 "Amendment of SFAS 133 on Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities," the assumed CNR derivative instruments are deemed to contain a significant financing element and all cash flows associated with these positions are reported as financing activity in the statement of cash flows.<br /><br />The following details the CNR derivatives (natural gas swaps) we have assumed:<br /><br /> Open Swap<br /> Avg. Positions<br /> NYMEX as a %<br /> Strike Avg. Fair Assuming of<br /> Price Value Upon Natural Estimated<br /> Open Of Open Acquisition Initial Gas Total<br /> Swaps Swaps of Liability Production Natural<br /> in (per Open Swaps Acquired in Bcf's Gas<br /> Bcf's Mcf) (per Mcf) (per Mcf) of: Production<br />======================================================================<br />Q4 2008 9.7 $4.66 $7.84 ($3.17) 190 5%<br />======================================================================<br /><br />======================================================================<br />Total 2009 18.3 $5.18 $7.28 ($2.10) 903 2%<br />======================================================================<br /><br />Note: Not shown above are collars covering 3.7 bcf of production in 2009 at an average floor and ceiling of $4.50 and $6.00.<br /><br />The company also has the following crude oil swaps in place:<br /><br /> Total Total<br /> Open Swap Gains Lifted<br /> Positions (Losses) Gain<br /> Assuming as a % from (Loss)<br /> Open Avg. Oil of Lifted per bbl of<br /> Swaps NYMEX Production Estimated Swaps Estimated<br /> in Strike in mbbls Total Oil ($ Total Oil<br /> mbbls Price of: Production millions) Production<br />======================================================================<br />Q4 2008(1) 1,214 $78.09 2,825 43% ($2.3) ($0.81)<br />======================================================================<br /><br />======================================================================<br />Total<br /> 2009(1) 5,728 $81.19 12,000 48% $38.5 $3.21<br />======================================================================<br /><br />======================================================================<br />Total<br /> 2010(1) 4,745 $90.25 13,000 37% -- --<br />======================================================================<br /><br />(1) Certain hedging arrangements include cap-swaps and knockout swaps with provisions limiting the counterparty's exposure below prices ranging from $45.00 to $60.00 covering 982 mbbls in 2008, from $50.00 to $60.00 covering 6,038 mbbls in 2009 and $60.00 covering 4,745 mbbls in 2010.<br /><br />Note: Not shown above are written call options covering 768 mbbls of production in 2008 at a weighted average price of $85.86 for a weighted average premium of $4.05, 5,110 mbbls of production in 2009 at a weighed average price of $133.93 for a weighted average premium of $3.90 and 5,110 mbbls of production in 2010 at a weighed average price of $140.00 for a weighted average premium of $4.46.<br /><br />SCHEDULE "B"<br /><br />CHESAPEAKE'S PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AS OF OCTOBER 14, 2008<br /><br />(PROVIDED FOR REFERENCE ONLY)<br /><br />NOW SUPERSEDED BY OUTLOOK AS OF OCTOBER 30, 2008<br /><br />Quarter Ending December 31, 2008 and Years Ending December 31, 2009 and 2010.<br /><br />We have adopted a policy of periodically providing guidance on certain factors that affect our future financial performance. As of October 14, 2008, we are using the following key assumptions in our projections for the fourth quarter of 2008 and the full years 2009 and 2010.<br /><br />The primary changes from our September 22, 2008 Outlook are in italicized bold and are explained as follows:<br /><br />1) Projected effects of changes in our hedging positions have been updated;<br /><br />2) Certain cost assumptions and budgeted capital expenditure assumptions have been updated;<br /><br />3) Our NYMEX oil price assumption for realized hedging effects and estimating future operating cash flow has been reduced; and<br /><br />4) Shares outstanding have been updated to remove the effects of certain contingent convertible senior notes that are not presently convertible at the current stock price level.<br /><br /> Quarter Ending Year Ending Year Ending<br /> 12/31/2008 12/31/2009 12/31/2010<br /> -------------- ------------ -------------<br />Estimated Production(a)<br /> Natural gas - bcf 197 - 201 893 - 913 1,032 - 1,072<br /> Oil - mbbls 2,825 12,000 13,000<br /> Natural gas equivalent -<br /> bcfe 214 - 218 965 - 985 1,110 -1,150<br /><br />Daily natural gas equivalent<br /> midpoint - mmcfe 2,350 2,670 3,095<br /><br />Year-over-year production<br /> increase 5.9% 15.6% 15.9%<br /><br />NYMEX Prices (b) (for calculation of realized hedging effects only):<br /> Natural gas - $/mcf $7.82 $8.00 $8.00<br /> Oil - $/bbl $80.00 $80.00 $80.00<br />Estimated Realized Hedging Effects (based on assumed NYMEX prices<br /> above):<br /> Natural gas - $/mcf $1.48 $1.04 $0.82<br /> Oil - $/bbl ($2.82) $2.42 $4.79<br />Estimated Differentials to<br /> NYMEX Prices:<br /> Natural gas - $/mcf 10 - 14% 10 - 14% 10 - 14%<br /> Oil - $/bbl 5 - 7% 5 - 7% 5 - 7%<br />Operating Costs per Mcfe of Projected Production:<br /> Production expense $1.00 - 1.10 $1.10 - 1.20 $1.15 - 1.25<br /> Production taxes (about<br /> 5% of O&G revenues) (c) $0.35 - 0.40 $0.35 - 0.40 $0.35 - 0.40<br /> General and<br /> administrative(d) $0.33 - 0.37 $0.33 - 0.37 $0.33 - 0.37<br /> Stock-based compensation<br /> (non-cash) $0.10 - 0.12 $0.10 - 0.12 $0.10 - 0.12<br /> DD&A of natural gas and<br /> oil assets $2.30 - 2.35 $2.20 - 2.30 $2.15 - 2.25<br /> Depreciation of other<br /> assets $0.20 - 0.24 $0.20 - 0.24 $0.20 - 0.24<br /> Interest expense(e) $0.30 - 0.35 $0.40 - 0.45 $0.35 - 0.40<br />Other Income per Mcfe:<br /> Natural gas and oil<br /> marketing income $0.09 - 0.11 $0.09 - 0.11 $0.09 - 0.11<br /> Service operations income $0.04 - 0.06 $0.04 - 0.06 $0.04 - 0.06<br />Book Tax Rate 38.5% 38.5% 38.5%<br />Cash Income Taxes - in<br /> millions $350 - 450 $200 - 300 $200 - 300<br /><br />Equivalent Shares<br /> Outstanding - in millions:<br /> Basic 560 - 565 565 - 570 575 - 580<br /> Diluted 580 - 585 585 - 590 595 - 600<br /><br />Cash Flow<br /> Projections - in Quarter Ending Year Ending Year Ending<br /> millions 12/31/2008 12/31/2009 12/31/2010<br /> --------------- ----------------- -----------------<br />Net inflows:<br />------------------<br /> Operating cash<br /> flow before<br /> changes in<br /> assets and<br /> liabilities<br /> (f)(g) $1,375 - 1,425 $5,800 - 6,000 $6,250 - 6,750<br /> Leasehold and<br /> producing<br /> property<br /> transactions:<br />------------------<br /> Sale of<br /> leasehold<br /> and<br /> producing<br /> properties<br /> (a) $2,100 - 2,500 $1,250 - 2,000 $1,250 - 2,000<br /> Sale of<br /> producing<br /> properties<br /> via VPP's(a) $400 - 500 $1,000 - 1,250 $1,000 - 1,250<br /> Acquisition<br /> of leasehold<br /> and<br /> producing<br /> properties ($750 - $1,000) ($1,250 - $1,750) ($1,000 - $1,500)<br />------------------ --------------- ----------------- -----------------<br /> Net leasehold<br /> and<br /> producing<br /> property<br /> transactions $1,750 - 2,000 $1,000 - 1,500 $1,250 - 1,750<br /> Debt and equity<br /> offerings - - -<br /> Midstream<br /> financings $1,050 - 1,275 $500 - 700 $500 - 700<br /> Proceeds from<br /> investments and<br /> other - $500 - 750 $150 - 250<br /> --------------- ----------------- -----------------<br />Total Cash Inflows $4,175 - 4,700 $7,800 - 8,950 $8,150 - 9,450<br /> =============== ================= =================<br /><br />Net outflows:<br />------------------<br /> Drilling $1,200 - 1,300 $4,250 - 4,750 $4,750 - 5,250<br /> Geophysical<br /> costs $75 $225 - 275 $225 - 275<br /> Midstream<br /> infrastructure<br /> and compression $300 - 325 $1,000 - 1,200 $900 - 1,000<br /> Other PP&E $50 - 75 $250 - 300 $250 - 300<br /> Dividends,<br /> senior notes<br /> redemption,<br /> capitalized<br /> interest, etc. $150 - 200 $575 - 600 $575 - 600<br /> Cash income<br /> taxes $350 - 450 $200 - 300 $200 - 300<br /> --------------- ----------------- -----------------<br />Total Cash<br /> Outflows $2,125 - 2,425 $6,500 - 7,425 $6,900 - 7,725<br /> =============== ================= =================<br /><br />Net Cash Change $2,050 - 2,275 $1,300 -1,525 $1,250 - 1,725<br /> =============== ================= =================<br /><br />(a) The 2008 fourth quarter production and cash flow forecasts reflect anticipated sales by the company of: 1) producing properties for approximately $450 million in a volumetric production payment (VPP); and 2) producing properties in South Texas and undeveloped leasehold in the Marcellus Shale and other areas for approximately $2.3 billion. The 2009 and 2010 production and cash flow forecasts reflect anticipated sales by the company of: 1) producing properties for approximately $1.1 billion in each year in VPP transactions; and 2) undeveloped leasehold or other producing properties for approximately $1.6 billion in each year.<br /><br />(b) NYMEX natural gas prices have been updated for actual contract prices through October 2008.<br /><br />(c) Severance tax per mcfe is based on NYMEX prices of $80.00 per bbl of oil and $7.50 to $8.50 per mcf of natural gas during Q4 2008; $80.00 per bbl of oil and $7.50 to $8.50 per mcf of natural gas during 2009; and $80.00 per bbl of oil and $7.50 to $8.50 per mcf of natural gas during 2010.<br /><br />(d) Excludes expenses associated with noncash stock compensation.<br /><br />(e) Does not include gains or losses on interest rate derivatives (SFAS 133).<br /><br />(f) A non-GAAP financial measure. We are unable to provide a reconciliation to projected cash provided by operating activities, the most comparable GAAP measure, because of uncertainties associated with projecting future changes in assets and liabilities.<br /><br />(g) Assumes NYMEX natural gas of $7.00 to $8.00 per mcf and NYMEX oil prices of $80.00 per bbl.<br /><br />Commodity Hedging Activities<br /><br />The company utilizes hedging strategies to hedge the price of a portion of its future natural gas and oil production.<br /><br />These strategies include:<br /><br />(i) For swap instruments, Chesapeake receives a fixed price and pays a floating market price to the counterparty. The fixed-price payment and the floating-price payment are netted, resulting in a net amount due to or from the counterparty.<br /><br />(ii) Basis protection swaps are arrangements that guarantee a price differential for oil or natural gas from a specified delivery point. For Mid-Continent basis protection swaps, which have negative differentials to NYMEX, Chesapeake receives a payment from the counterparty if the price differential is greater than the stated terms of the contract and pays the counterparty if the price differential is less than the stated terms of the contract. For Appalachian basis protection swaps, which have positive differentials to NYMEX, Chesapeake receives a payment from the counterparty if the price differential is less than the stated terms of the contract and pays the counterparty if the price differential is greater than the stated terms of the contract.<br /><br />(iii) For knockout swaps, Chesapeake receives a fixed price and pays a floating market price. The fixed price received by Chesapeake includes a premium in exchange for the possibility to reduce the counterparty's exposure to zero, in any given month, if the floating market price is lower than certain predetermined knockout prices.<br /><br />(iv) For cap-swaps, Chesapeake receives a fixed price and pays a floating market price. The fixed price received by Chesapeake includes a premium in exchange for a "cap" limiting the counterparty's exposure. In other words, there is no limit to Chesapeake's exposure but there is a limit to the downside exposure of the counterparty<br /><br />(v) For written call options, Chesapeake receives a premium from the counterparty in exchange for the sale of a call option. If the market price exceeds the fixed price of the call option, Chesapeake pays the counterparty such excess. If the market price settles below the fixed price of the call option, no payment is due from Chesapeake.<br /><br />(vi) Collars contain a fixed floor price (put) and ceiling price (call). If the market price exceeds the call strike price or falls below the put strike price, Chesapeake receives the fixed price and pays the market price. If the market price is between the call and the put strike price, no payments are due from either party.<br /><br />(vii) A three-way collar contract consists of a standard collar contract plus a written put option with a strike price below the floor price of the collar. In addition to the settlement of the collar, the put option requires Chesapeake to make a payment to the counterparty equal to the difference between the put option price and the settlement price if the settlement price for any settlement period is below the put option strike price.<br /><br />Commodity markets are volatile, and as a result, Chesapeake's hedging activity is dynamic. As market conditions warrant, the company may elect to settle a hedging transaction prior to its scheduled maturity date and lock in the gain or loss on the transaction.<br /><br />Chesapeake enters into natural gas and oil derivative transactions in order to mitigate a portion of its exposure to adverse market changes in natural gas and oil prices. Accordingly, associated gains or losses from the derivative transactions are reflected as adjustments to natural gas and oil sales. All realized gains and losses from natural gas and oil derivatives are included in natural gas and oil sales in the month of related production. Pursuant to SFAS 133, certain derivatives do not qualify for designation as cash flow hedges. Changes in the fair value of these nonqualifying derivatives that occur prior to their maturity (i.e., because of temporary fluctuations in value) are reported currently in the consolidated statement of operations as unrealized gains (losses) within natural gas and oil sales.<br /><br />Following provisions of SFAS 133, changes in the fair value of derivative instruments designated as cash flow hedges, to the extent effective in offsetting cash flows attributable to hedged risk, are recorded in other comprehensive income until the hedged item is recognized in earnings. Any change in fair value resulting from ineffectiveness is recognized currently in natural gas and oil sales.<br /><br />Excluding the swaps assumed in connection with the acquisition of CNR which are described below, the company currently has the following open natural gas swaps in place and also has the following gains (losses) from lifted natural gas swaps:<br /><br /> Open Swap<br /> Positions Total Total Lifted<br /> as a Gains Gain<br /> Avg. Assuming % of (Losses) (Loss) per<br /> NYMEX Natural Estimated from Mcf of<br /> Open Strike Gas Total Lifted Estimated<br /> Swaps Price Production Natural Swaps Total<br /> in of Open in Bcf's Gas ($ Natural Gas<br /> Bcf's Swaps of: Production millions) Production<br />======================================================================<br />Q4 2008 110.6 $9.30 199 56% $79.70 $0.40<br />======================================================================<br /><br />======================================================================<br />Total<br /> 2009(1) 533.0 $9.46 903 59% ($36.70) ($0.04)<br />======================================================================<br /><br />======================================================================<br />Total<br /> 2010(1) 422.6 $9.58 1,052 40% $33.90 $0.03<br />======================================================================<br /><br />(1) Certain hedging arrangements include knockout swaps with provisions limiting the counterparty's exposure below prices ranging from $5.45 to $6.50 covering 35 bcf in 2008, $5.45 to $7.25 covering 356 bcf in 2009 and $5.45 to $7.40 covering 318 bcf in 2010.<br /><br />The company currently has the following open natural gas collars in place:<br /><br /> Open Collars<br /> Assuming as a % of<br /> Avg. Avg. Natural Gas Estimated<br /> Open NYMEX NYMEX Production Total<br /> Collars Floor Ceiling in Bcf's Natural Gas<br /> in Bcf's Price Price of: Production<br />======================================================================<br />Q4 2008 26.6 $7.75 $9.32 199 13%<br />======================================================================<br /><br />======================================================================<br />Total 2009(1) 63.9 $8.05 $11.18 903 7%<br />======================================================================<br /><br />======================================================================<br />Total 2010(1) 25.6 $7.71 $11.46 1,052 2%<br />======================================================================<br /><br />(1) Certain collar arrangements include three-way collars that include written put options with strike prices ranging from $5.50 to $6.00 covering 38 bcf in 2009 and at $6.00 covering 4 bcf in 2010.<br /><br />The company currently has the following natural gas written call options in place:<br /><br /> Call Options<br /> as a % of<br /> Assuming Estimated<br /> Call Avg. Natural Gas Total<br /> Options Avg. NYMEX Premium Production Natural Gas<br /> in Bcf's Call Price per mcf in Bcf's of: Production<br />======================================================================<br />Q4 2008 34.0 $10.39 $0.70 199 17%<br />======================================================================<br /><br />======================================================================<br />Total 2009 225.5 $11.37 $0.61 903 25%<br />======================================================================<br /><br />======================================================================<br />Total 2010 231.8 $10.77 $0.72 1,052 22%<br />======================================================================<br /><br />The company has the following natural gas basis protection swaps in place:<br /><br /> Mid-Continent Appalachia<br /> ----------------------- -----------------------<br /> Volume in NYMEX Volume in NYMEX<br /> Bcf's less(1): Bcf's plus(1):<br /> --------- ------------ --------- ------------<br />Q4 2008 32.1 $ 0.45 5.8 $ 0.33<br />2009 77.1 0.35 16.9 0.28<br />2010 -- -- 10.2 0.26<br />2011 45.1 0.64 12.1 0.25<br />2012 43.2 0.48 -- --<br /> --------- ------------ --------- ------------<br />Totals 197.5 $ 0.46 45.0 $ 0.27<br /> ========= ============ ========= ============<br /><br />(1) weighted average<br /><br />We assumed certain liabilities related to open derivative positions in connection with the CNR acquisition in November 2005. In accordance with SFAS 141, these derivative positions were recorded at fair value in the purchase price allocation as a liability of $592 million ($102 million as of June 30, 2008). The recognition of the derivative liability and other assumed liabilities resulted in an increase in the total purchase price which was allocated to the assets acquired. Because of this accounting treatment, only cash settlements for changes in fair value subsequent to the acquisition date for the derivative positions assumed result in adjustments to our natural gas and oil revenues upon settlement. For example, if the fair value of the derivative positions assumed does not change, then upon the sale of the underlying production and corresponding settlement of the derivative positions, cash would be paid to the counterparties and there would be no adjustment to natural gas and oil revenues related to the derivative positions. If, however, the actual sales price is different from the price assumed in the original fair value calculation, the difference would be reflected as either a decrease or increase in natural gas and oil revenues, depending upon whether the sales price was higher or lower, respectively, than the prices assumed in the original fair value calculation. For accounting purposes, the net effect of these acquired hedges is that we hedged the production volumes listed below at their fair values on the date of our acquisition of CNR.<br /><br />Pursuant to SFAS 149 "Amendment of SFAS 133 on Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities," the assumed CNR derivative instruments are deemed to contain a significant financing element and all cash flows associated with these positions are reported as financing activity in the statement of cash flows.<br /><br />The following details the CNR derivatives (natural gas swaps) we have assumed:<br /><br /> Open Swap<br /> Avg. Positions<br /> NYMEX as a %<br /> Strike Avg. Fair Assuming of<br /> Price Value Upon Natural Estimated<br /> Open Of Open Acquisition Initial Gas Total<br /> Swaps Swaps of Liability Production Natural<br /> in (per Open Swaps Acquired in Bcf's Gas<br /> Bcf's Mcf) (per Mcf) (per Mcf) of: Production<br />======================================================================<br />Q4 2008 9.7 $4.66 $7.84 ($3.17) 199 5%<br />======================================================================<br /><br />======================================================================<br />Total 2009 18.3 $5.18 $7.28 ($2.10) 903 2%<br />======================================================================<br /><br />Note: Not shown above are collars covering 3.7 bcf of production in 2009 at an average floor and ceiling of $4.50 and $6.00.<br /><br />The company also has the following crude oil swaps in place:<br /><br /> Open Swap Total Total<br /> Positions Losses Lifted<br /> Assuming as a % from Losses per<br /> Open Avg. Oil of Lifted bbl of<br /> Swaps NYMEX Production Estimated Swaps Estimated<br /> in Strike in mbbls Total Oil ($ Total Oil<br /> mbbls Price of: Production millions) Production<br />======================================================================<br />Q4 2008(1) 1,702 $77.57 2,825 60% ($4.7) ($1.68)<br />======================================================================<br /><br />======================================================================<br />Total<br /> 2009(1) 8,364 $82.38 12,000 70% ($0.6) ($0.05)<br />======================================================================<br /><br />======================================================================<br />Total<br /> 2010(1) 4,745 $90.25 13,000 37% -- --<br />======================================================================<br /><br />(1) Certain hedging arrangements include cap-swaps and knockout swaps with provisions limiting the counterparty's exposure below prices ranging from $45.00 to $60.00 covering 1,104 mbbls in 2008, from $52.50 to $60.00 covering 7,848 mbbls in 2009 and $60.00 covering 4,745 mbbls in 2010.<br /><br />Note: Not shown above are written call options covering 890 mbbls of production in 2008 at a weighted average price of $86.43 for a weighted average premium of $3.63, 3,285 mbbls of production in 2009 at a weighed average price of $122.22 for a weighted average premium of $6.07 and 3,285 mbbls of production in 2010 at a weighed average price of $131.67 for a weighted average premium of $6.94.Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-5756694325330416172008-10-29T08:42:00.000+01:002008-10-29T09:43:43.570+01:00Valero Energy Corporation Reports Third Quarter EarningsSAN ANTONIO --(Business Wire)-- -- Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) today reported third quarter 2008 income from continuing operations of $1.2 billion, or $2.18 per share, which compares to $848 million, or $1.34 per share, in the third quarter of 2007. The third quarter 2008 results include the company's pre-tax gain of $305 million on the sale of its Krotz Springs, Louisiana refinery to a subsidiary of Alon USA Energy, Inc., which was effective July 1, 2008. Excluding this gain, third quarter 2008 income from continuing operations was $982 million, or $1.86 per share. Due to long-term product supply agreements between Valero and Alon, the results of operations related to the Krotz Springs refinery have not been presented as discontinued operations.<br /><br />Income from continuing operations for the nine months ended September 30, 2008, was $2.1 billion, or $4.02 per share, compared to $4.0 billion, or $6.66 per share, for the nine months ended September 30, 2007. Excluding the gain on the sale of the Krotz Springs refinery, income from continuing operations for the nine months ended September 30, 2008 was $2.0 billion, or $3.70 per share.<br /><br />Third quarter 2008 operating income was $1.8 billion compared to $1.2 billion for the third quarter of 2007. Excluding the gain on the sale of the Krotz Springs refinery, the increase in operating income was mainly due to higher margins for distillate products, such as diesel and jet fuels. Partially offsetting the higher margins for distillate products was a decrease in margins for gasoline.<br /><br />"As a result of our good earnings, our financial position has continued to improve," said Bill Klesse, Valero's Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer. "At the end of the third quarter, our net debt-to-capitalization ratio was 15.8%, one of the lowest in company history. In early October, Moody's recognized our financial strength by raising our investment-grade credit rating from Baa3 to Baa2 with a stable outlook.<br /><br />"Given the very uncertain economic environment, we have significantly reduced our capital spending. We estimate total capital spending for 2008 will be approximately $3.0 billion, down $800 million from our last update, and down $1.5 billion from our original budget of $4.5 billion. For 2009, we estimate capital spending will be $3.5 billion, also down $500 million from our previous guidance. We will continue to review our capital spending considering our opportunities and the economic outlook."<br /><br />Regarding uses of cash in the third quarter of 2008, the company's capital spending was $749 million, of which $76 million was for turnaround expenditures. The company also used $78 million for dividend payments and spent $74 million to purchase 2 million shares of its common stock. In October, the company purchased an additional 8.3 million shares, taking the year-to-date total purchases to nearly 23 million shares, or more than 4% of shares outstanding at the beginning of this year.<br /><br />"Looking at market fundamentals, a key item in the third quarter was the sharp drop in the price of crude oil, and this decline has obviously continued so far in the fourth quarter," said Klesse. "The price of WTI light sweet crude oil began the third quarter at approximately $140 per barrel, but recently closed below $65 per barrel. Although the fall in crude oil prices has not translated into higher margins for all of Valero's products, the lower crude oil prices have led to substantially lower retail pump prices, which is positive for consumers and demand for our products. The lower prices will also provide consumers a clearer view of the magnitude of the subsidies necessary to make alternative fuels competitive.<br /><br />"Regarding third quarter product margins, conditions were very volatile. Low gasoline margins in July were followed by higher margins in August as production adjusted to demand. When the hurricanes hit the Gulf Coast and reduced refinery production, gasoline inventories fell to historically low levels, and margins responded, which increased average margins for the third quarter. In contrast to the volatile movement of gasoline margins, distillate margins remained very good throughout the third quarter as global supply and demand balances were tight. With winter approaching, we continue to expect excellent distillate margins even though worldwide economic activity is slowing."<br /><br />Margins for many of the company's secondary products, such as asphalt, heavy fuel oil, petroleum coke, and petrochemical feedstocks, increased in the third quarter compared to the prior quarter as the cost of crude oil fell faster than the prices of those products. This favorable margin relationship continues as crude prices continue to fall.<br /><br />"In our refining operations, the hurricanes certainly complicated matters," said Klesse. "We had four refineries shut down, but we were fortunate to avoid major damage from the hurricanes. We thank all of our employees for a dedicated and committed effort to return our refineries and most of our retail stores to normal operations as quickly as possible.<br /><br />"Uncertainty in the financial markets and a pessimistic economic outlook have noticeably added to the inherent volatility in the refining industry. Valero's stock price, like those of nearly all companies in the energy sector, has been hit hard. Obviously, we feel that our stock price has been beaten down unfairly when you consider our balance sheet strength, cash position, operations, and continuing profitability. You can expect us to maintain our balanced approach by investing in growth projects, paying off debt, buying back stock, and increasing dividends, but clearly we intend to hold much more cash than in the past."<br /><br />Valero's senior management will hold a conference call at 11 a.m. ET (10 a.m. CT) today to discuss this earnings release and provide an update on company operations. A live broadcast of the conference call will be available on the company's web site at www.valero.com.<br /><br />Valero Energy Corporation is a Fortune 500 company based in San Antonio, with approximately 22,000 employees and 2007 revenues of more than $95 billion. The company owns and operates 16 refineries throughout the United States, Canada and the Caribbean with a combined throughput capacity of approximately 3.1 million barrels per day, making it the largest refiner in North America. Valero is also one of the nation's largest retail operators with approximately 5,800 retail and branded wholesale outlets in the United States, Canada and the Caribbean under various brand names including Valero, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Beacon. Please visit www.valero.com for more information.<br /><br />Statements contained in this release that state the company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements intended to be covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The words "believe," "expect," "should," "could," "estimates," and other similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. It is important to note that actual results could differ materially from those projected in such forward-looking statements. For more information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed or forecasted, see Valero's annual reports on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and on Valero's website at www.valero.com.<br /><br /> VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES<br /> EARNINGS RELEASE<br /> (Millions of Dollars, Except per Share, per Barrel, and per Gallon<br /> Amounts)<br /> (Unaudited)<br /><br /><br /> Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended<br /> September 30, September 30,<br /> -------------------------- ------------------<br /> 2008 2007 2008 2007 (1)<br /> ------------- ------------ --------- --------<br />STATEMENT OF INCOME<br /> DATA:<br /> Operating Revenues (2) $ 35,960 $ 23,699 $100,545 $66,656<br /> ------------- ------------ --------- --------<br /><br /> Costs and Expenses:<br /> Cost of Sales 32,506 20,810 91,848 55,630<br /> Refining Operating<br /> Expenses 1,179 1,036 3,426 2,955<br /> Retail Selling<br /> Expenses 201 190 579 561<br /> General and<br /> Administrative<br /> Expenses 169 152 421 474<br /> Depreciation and<br /> Amortization<br /> Expense 370 343 1,106 1,002<br /> Gain on Sale of<br /> Krotz Springs<br /> Refinery (3) (305) - (305) -<br /> ------------- ------------ --------- --------<br /> Total Costs and<br /> Expenses 34,120 22,531 97,075 60,622<br /> ------------- ------------ --------- --------<br /><br /> Operating Income 1,840 1,168 3,470 6,034<br /><br />Other Income, Net (4) 36 145 71 157<br /><br /> Interest and Debt<br /> Expense:<br /> Incurred (112) (148) (335) (347)<br /> Capitalized 31 25 74 83<br /> ------------- ------------ --------- --------<br /><br /> Income from Continuing<br /> Operations Before<br /> Income Tax Expense 1,795 1,190 3,280 5,927<br /><br /> Income Tax Expense 643 342 1,133 1,929<br /> ------------- ------------ --------- --------<br /><br /> Income from Continuing<br /> Operations 1,152 848 2,147 3,998<br /><br /> Income from<br /> Discontinued<br /> Operations, Net of<br /> Income Taxes (1) - 426 - 669<br /> ------------- ------------ --------- --------<br /><br /> Net Income $ 1,152 $ 1,274 $ 2,147 $ 4,667<br /> ============= ============ ========= ========<br /><br /> Earnings per Common<br /> Share:<br /> Continuing<br /> Operations $ 2.21 $ 1.54 $ 4.08 $ 7.00<br /> Discontinued<br /> Operations - 0.77 - 1.17<br /> ------------- ------------ --------- --------<br /> Total $ 2.21 $ 2.31 $ 4.08 $ 8.17<br /> ============= ============ ========= ========<br /><br /> Weighted Average<br /> Common Shares<br /> Outstanding (in<br /> millions) 522 551 526 571<br /><br /> Earnings per Common<br /> Share - Assuming<br /> Dilution:<br /> Continuing<br /> Operations (5) $ 2.18 $ 1.34 $ 4.02 $ 6.66<br /> Discontinued<br /> Operations - 0.75 - 1.14<br /> ------------- ------------ --------- --------<br /> Total $ 2.18 $ 2.09 $ 4.02 $ 7.80<br /> ============= ============ ========= ========<br /><br /> Weighted Average<br /> Common Shares<br /> Outstanding-<br /> Assuming Dilution<br /> (in millions) 529 564 535 587<br /><br /> September 30, December 31,<br /> 2008 2007<br /> ------------- ------------<br />BALANCE SHEET DATA:<br /> Cash and Temporary<br /> Cash Investments $ 2,767 $ 2,464<br /><br /> Total Debt $ 6,475 $ 6,862<br /><br /> VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES<br /> EARNINGS RELEASE<br /> (Millions of Dollars, Except per Share, per Barrel, and per Gallon<br /> Amounts)<br /> (Unaudited)<br /><br /><br /> Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended<br /> September 30, September 30,<br /> ------------------ -----------------<br /> 2008 2007 2008 2007 (1)<br /> ---------- ------- -------- --------<br />Operating Income (Loss) by<br /> Business Segment:<br /> Refining $ 1,913 $1,259 $3,716 $6,362<br /> ---------- ------- -------- --------<br /> Retail:<br /> U.S. 81 54 120 115<br /> Canada 26 20 86 68<br /> ---------- ------- -------- --------<br /> Total Retail 107 74 206 183<br /> ---------- ------- -------- --------<br /> Total Before Corporate 2,020 1,333 3,922 6,545<br /> Corporate (180) (165) (452) (511)<br /> ---------- ------- -------- --------<br /> Total $ 1,840 $1,168 $3,470 $6,034<br /> ========== ======= ======== ========<br /><br />Depreciation and Amortization by<br /> Business Segment:<br /> Refining $ 331 $ 307 $ 998 $ 902<br /> ---------- ------- -------- --------<br /> Retail:<br /> U.S. 18 15 51 42<br /> Canada 10 8 26 21<br /> ---------- ------- -------- --------<br /> Total Retail 28 23 77 63<br /> ---------- ------- -------- --------<br /> Total Before Corporate 359 330 1,075 965<br /> Corporate 11 13 31 37<br /> ---------- ------- -------- --------<br /> Total $ 370 $ 343 $1,106 $1,002<br /> ========== ======= ======== ========<br /><br />Operating Highlights:<br /> Refining:<br /> Throughput Margin per Barrel $ 13.11 $ 9.94 $10.80 $13.39<br /><br /> Operating Costs per Barrel:<br /> Refining Operating Expenses $ 4.96 $ 3.96 $ 4.72 $ 3.87<br /> Depreciation and<br /> Amortization 1.39 1.17 1.38 1.18<br /> ---------- ------- -------- --------<br /> Total Operating Costs per<br /> Barrel $ 6.35 $ 5.13 $ 6.10 $ 5.05<br /> ========== ======= ======== ========<br /><br /> Throughput Volumes (Mbbls per<br /> Day):<br /> Feedstocks:<br /> Heavy Sour Crude 565 594 580 633<br /> Medium/Light Sour Crude 670 663 680 643<br /> Acidic Sweet Crude 75 79 76 83<br /> Sweet Crude 578 760 622 728<br /> Residuals 282 265 242 261<br /> Other Feedstocks 136 181 141 161<br /> ---------- ------- -------- --------<br /> Total Feedstocks 2,306 2,542 2,341 2,509<br /> Blendstocks and Other 281 302 306 286<br /> ---------- ------- -------- --------<br /> Total Throughput<br /> Volumes 2,587 2,844 2,647 2,795<br /> ========== ======= ======== ========<br /><br /> Yields (Mbbls per Day):<br /> Gasolines and<br /> Blendstocks 1,136 1,324 1,197 1,283<br /> Distillates 906 932 920 919<br /> Petrochemicals 66 84 74 83<br /> Other Products (6) 464 495 449 507<br /> ---------- ------- -------- --------<br /> Total Yields 2,572 2,835 2,640 2,792<br /> ========== ======= ======== ========<br /><br /> VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES<br /> EARNINGS RELEASE<br /> (Millions of Dollars, Except per Share, per Barrel, and per Gallon<br /> Amounts)<br /> (Unaudited)<br /><br /><br /> Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended<br /> September 30, September 30,<br /> ------------------ -----------------<br /> 2008 2007 2008 2007<br /> --------- -------- -------- --------<br />Refining Operating Highlights by<br /> Region (7):<br /> Gulf Coast:<br /> Operating Income (3) $ 1,117 $ 763 $ 2,597 $ 3,781<br /><br /> Throughput Volumes (Mbbls per<br /> Day) 1,324 1,527 1,399 1,532<br /><br /> Throughput Margin per Barrel $ 13.21 $10.49 $ 12.01 $ 13.80<br /><br /> Operating Costs per Barrel:<br /> Refining Operating Expenses $ 5.17 $ 3.98 $ 4.73 $ 3.69<br /> Depreciation and<br /> Amortization 1.37 1.08 1.30 1.06<br /> --------- -------- -------- --------<br /> Total Operating Costs per<br /> Barrel $ 6.54 $ 5.06 $ 6.03 $ 4.75<br /> ========= ======== ======== ========<br /><br /> Mid-Continent (1):<br /> Operating Income $ 295 $ 233 $ 513 $ 807<br /><br /> Throughput Volumes (Mbbls per<br /> Day) 426 445 426 391<br /><br /> Throughput Margin per Barrel $ 13.23 $10.35 $ 9.94 $ 13.10<br /><br /> Operating Costs per Barrel:<br /> Refining Operating Expenses $ 4.42 $ 3.52 $ 4.25 $ 4.17<br /> Depreciation and<br /> Amortization 1.28 1.15 1.29 1.36<br /> --------- -------- -------- --------<br /> Total Operating Costs per<br /> Barrel $ 5.70 $ 4.67 $ 5.54 $ 5.53<br /> ========= ======== ======== ========<br /><br /> Northeast:<br /> Operating Income $ 387 $ 147 $ 357 $ 959<br /><br /> Throughput Volumes (Mbbls per<br /> Day) 552 566 545 572<br /><br /> Throughput Margin per Barrel $ 13.53 $ 8.21 $ 8.50 $ 11.22<br /><br /> Operating Costs per Barrel:<br /> Refining Operating Expenses $ 4.55 $ 4.11 $ 4.69 $ 3.83<br /> Depreciation and<br /> Amortization 1.36 1.27 1.42 1.25<br /> --------- -------- -------- --------<br /> Total Operating Costs per<br /> Barrel $ 5.91 $ 5.38 $ 6.11 $ 5.08<br /> ========= ======== ======== ========<br /><br /> West Coast:<br /> Operating Income $ 114 $ 116 $ 249 $ 815<br /><br /> Throughput Volumes (Mbbls per<br /> Day) 285 306 277 300<br /><br /> Throughput Margin per Barrel $ 11.60 $ 9.82 $ 10.55 $ 15.84<br /><br /> Operating Costs per Barrel:<br /> Refining Operating Expenses $ 5.55 $ 4.24 $ 5.51 $ 4.48<br /> Depreciation and<br /> Amortization 1.70 1.45 1.76 1.42<br /> --------- -------- -------- --------<br /> Total Operating Costs per<br /> Barrel $ 7.25 $ 5.69 $ 7.27 $ 5.90<br /> ========= ======== ======== ========<br /><br /> VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES<br /> EARNINGS RELEASE<br /> (Millions of Dollars, Except per Share, per Barrel, and per Gallon<br /> Amounts)<br /> (Unaudited)<br /><br /><br /> Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended<br /> September 30, September 30,<br /> ------------------ -----------------<br /> 2008 2007 2008 2007<br /> ---------- ------- --------- -------<br /> Retail - U.S.:<br /> Company-Operated Fuel Sites<br /> (Average) 984 956 961 959<br /> Fuel Volumes (Gallons per Day<br /> per Site) 4,946 5,068 4,997 5,019<br /> Fuel Margin per Gallon $ 0.273 $0.197 $ 0.173 $0.174<br /> Merchandise Sales $ 292 $ 272 $ 819 $ 774<br /> Merchandise Margin (Percentage<br /> of Sales) 29.8% 29.7% 30.0% 29.9%<br /> Margin on Miscellaneous Sales $ 24 $ 26 $ 74 $ 75<br /> Selling Expenses $ 134 $ 125 $ 375 $ 377<br /><br /> Retail - Canada:<br /> Fuel Volumes (Thousand Gallons<br /> per Day) 3,126 3,180 3,169 3,231<br /> Fuel Margin per Gallon $ 0.261 $0.238 $ 0.278 $0.235<br /> Merchandise Sales $ 56 $ 53 $ 156 $ 137<br /> Merchandise Margin (Percentage<br /> of Sales) 28.6% 26.9% 28.5% 28.1%<br /> Margin on Miscellaneous Sales $ 10 $ 9 $ 29 $ 27<br /> Selling Expenses $ 67 $ 65 $ 204 $ 184<br /><br /> Average Market Reference Prices<br /> and Differentials<br /> (Dollars per Barrel):<br /> Feedstocks (at U.S. Gulf<br /> Coast, except as Noted):<br /> West Texas Intermediate (WTI)<br /> Crude Oil $ 117.83 $75.48 $ 113.25 $66.12<br /> WTI Less Sour Crude Oil (8) $ 4.05 $ 3.00 $ 5.20 $ 4.00<br /> WTI Less Mars Crude Oil $ 5.26 $ 5.93 $ 6.40 $ 4.52<br /> WTI Less Alaska North Slope<br /> (ANS)<br /> Crude Oil (U.S. West Coast) $ 0.93 $(1.01) $ 0.81 $ 0.15<br /> WTI Less Maya Crude Oil $ 11.36 $12.42 $ 16.39 $11.55<br /><br /> Products:<br /> U.S. Gulf Coast:<br /> Conventional 87 Gasoline<br /> Less WTI $ 12.13 $12.20 $ 7.66 $17.12<br /> No. 2 Fuel Oil Less WTI $ 19.27 $10.82 $ 19.17 $11.86<br /> Ultra-Low-Sulfur Diesel Less<br /> WTI $ 23.91 $16.23 $ 24.38 $18.61<br /> Propylene Less WTI $ 7.21 $ 8.75 $ (0.11) $13.88<br /> U.S. Mid-Continent:<br /> Conventional 87 Gasoline<br /> Less WTI $ 8.62 $20.17 $ 6.49 $22.13<br /> Low-Sulfur Diesel Less WTI $ 25.55 $22.41 $ 25.10 $22.78<br /> U.S. Northeast:<br /> Conventional 87 Gasoline<br /> Less WTI $ 5.80 $11.72 $ 4.40 $16.63<br /> No. 2 Fuel Oil Less WTI $ 19.86 $11.72 $ 20.85 $12.83<br /> Lube Oils Less WTI $ 89.33 $43.81 $ 51.75 $53.62<br /> U.S. West Coast:<br /> CARBOB 87 Gasoline Less ANS $ 12.21 $14.22 $ 12.95 $27.18<br /> CARB Diesel Less ANS $ 23.87 $17.86 $ 25.39 $23.52<br /><br /> VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES<br /> EARNINGS RELEASE<br /> (Millions of Dollars, Except per Share, per Barrel, and per Gallon<br /> Amounts)<br /> (Unaudited)<br /><br /><br />(1) Effective July 1, 2007, Valero Energy Corporation (Valero) sold<br /> its Lima Refinery to Husky Refining Company, a wholly owned<br /> subsidiary of Husky Energy Inc. The results of operations of the<br /> Lima Refinery for the six months of 2007 prior to its sale are<br /> reported as discontinued operations in the Statement of Income<br /> Data, and all refining operating highlights, both consolidated<br /> and for the Mid-Continent region, presented in this earnings<br /> release exclude the Lima Refinery. The sale resulted in a pre-tax<br /> gain of $827 million ($426 million after tax), which is included<br /> in "Income from Discontinued Operations, Net of Income Taxes" in<br /> the Statement of Income for the three and nine months ended<br /> September 30, 2007.<br /><br />(2) Includes excise taxes on sales by Valero's U.S. retail system of<br /> $207 million and $207 million for the three months ended<br /> September 30, 2008 and 2007, respectively, and $605 million and<br /> $606 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2008 and<br /> 2007, respectively.<br /><br />(3) Effective July 1, 2008, Valero sold its Krotz Springs Refinery to<br /> Alon Refining Krotz Springs, Inc. (Alon), a subsidiary of Alon<br /> USA Energy, Inc. The nature and significance of Valero's post-<br /> closing participation in an offtake agreement with Alon<br /> represents a continuation of activities with the Krotz Springs<br /> Refinery for accounting purposes, and as such the results of<br /> operations related to the Krotz Springs Refinery have not been<br /> presented as discontinued operations in the Statement of Income<br /> Data for any of the periods presented, and all refining operating<br /> highlights, both consolidated and for the Gulf Coast region,<br /> presented in this earnings release include the Krotz Springs<br /> Refinery for all periods presented. The pre-tax gain of $305<br /> million on the sale of the Krotz Springs Refinery is included in<br /> the Gulf Coast operating income for the three and nine months<br /> ended September 30, 2008.<br /><br />(4) "Other Income, Net" for the three and nine months ended September<br /> 30, 2007 includes a $91 million pre-tax gain resulting from the<br /> repayment of a loan by a foreign subsidiary.<br /><br />(5) The calculation of earnings per common share assuming dilution for<br /> the three and nine months ended September 30, 2007 includes the<br /> effect of a $94 million deduction from net income representing<br /> cash paid in the third quarter of 2007 in final settlement of an<br /> accelerated share repurchase program entered into in the second<br /> quarter of 2007.<br /><br />(6) Primarily includes gas oils, No. 6 fuel oil, petroleum coke, and<br /> asphalt.<br /><br />(7) The regions reflected herein contain the following refineries:<br /> Gulf Coast - Corpus Christi East, Corpus Christi West, Texas<br /> City, Houston, Three Rivers, Krotz Springs (for periods prior to<br /> its sale effective July 1, 2008), St. Charles, Aruba, and Port<br /> Arthur Refineries; Mid-Continent - McKee, Ardmore, and Memphis<br /> Refineries; Northeast - Quebec City, Paulsboro, and Delaware City<br /> Refineries; and West Coast - Benicia and Wilmington Refineries.<br /><br />(8) The market reference differential for sour crude oil is based on<br /> 50% Arab Medium and 50% Arab Light posted prices.Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-72284596364978735132008-10-23T08:01:00.001+02:002008-10-23T10:35:09.152+02:00ConocoPhillips Reports Third-Quarter Net Income of $5.2 Billion or $3.39 Per ShareHOUSTON --(Business Wire)-- -- ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP):<br /><br /> Earnings at a glance<br /><br /> Third Quarter Nine Months<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /> 2008 2007 2008 2007<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br />Net income $5,188 million 3,673 million $14,766 million 7,520 million<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br />Diluted<br />income per<br />share $3.39 2.23 $9.50 4.54<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br />Earnings<br />adjusted<br />for the<br />second-<br />quarter<br />2007<br />Venezuela<br />impairment$5,188 million 3,673 million $14,766 million 12,032 million<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br />Diluted<br />earnings<br />per share<br />adjusted<br />for the<br />second-<br />quarter<br />2007<br />Venezuela<br />impairment$3.39 2.23 $9.50 7.26<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br />Revenues $70.0 billion 46.1 billion $196.3 billion 134.8 billion<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) today reported third-quarter net income of $5,188 million, or $3.39 per share. This compared with $3,673 million, or $2.23 per share, for the same quarter in 2007. Revenues were $70.0 billion, versus $46.1 billion a year ago.<br /><br />"Our U.S. operations were impacted by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike during the quarter, but despite these impacts, our overall operating performance was good," said Jim Mulva, chairman and chief executive officer. "Our upstream business continued to benefit from the strong commodity price environment and we produced 2.2 million BOE per day, including an estimated 0.4 million BOE per day from our LUKOIL Investment segment. In our downstream business, we benefited from stronger global marketing margins and were able to slightly improve our overall realized refining margin in spite of a decrease in global refining crack spreads. Our worldwide refining crude oil capacity utilization rate was 87 percent, reflecting the impact of hurricane-related downtime.<br /><br />"We generated $7.5 billion of cash from operations during the quarter. This enabled us to invest $4.0 billion in exploring for and developing oil and natural gas supplies, enhancing refining capabilities, and fostering emerging technologies. It also enabled us to repurchase $2.5 billion of ConocoPhillips common stock and pay $0.7 billion in dividends. We ended the quarter with debt of $22.1 billion and a debt-to-capital ratio of 19 percent."<br /><br />The results for ConocoPhillips' business segments follow.<br /><br />Exploration and Production (E&P)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Third-quarter financial results: E&P third-quarter net income was $3,928 million, compared with $3,999 million in the previous quarter and $2,082 million in the third quarter of 2007.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The decrease from the second quarter of 2008 was primarily due to lower crude oil and natural gas prices, partially offset by a net benefit from asset rationalization efforts, favorable foreign exchange impacts, and lower production taxes. The increase from the third quarter of 2007 was primarily due to higher commodity prices, partially offset by higher production taxes, increased operating costs, and lower volumes.</span><br /><br />Daily production from the E&P segment, including Canadian Syncrude, averaged 1.75 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, similar to both the previous quarter and the third quarter of 2007. When compared with the previous quarter, production from new developments in the United Kingdom, Russia and Norway largely offset planned and unplanned downtime, which included hurricane disruptions in the U.S. Lower 48, as well as normal field decline. The production impact from hurricane disruptions was approximately 17,000 BOE per day.<br /><br />When compared with the third quarter of 2007, production from new developments in the United Kingdom, Russia, Indonesia, Norway and Canada was slightly less than impacts from normal field decline, unplanned downtime, and production sharing contracts.<br /><br />Before-tax exploration expenses were $267 million in the third quarter of 2008, compared with $288 million in the previous quarter and $218 million in the third quarter of 2007.<br /><br />Nine-month financial results: E&P net income for the first nine months of 2008 was $10,814 million, compared with $2,007 million during the first nine months of 2007. Nine-month 2007 earnings adjusted for the Venezuela impairment were $6,519 million. The increase from the nine-month 2007 adjusted earnings was primarily due to higher commodity prices, partially offset by higher production taxes, lower volumes, increased operating costs, and a lower net benefit from asset rationalization efforts.<br /><br />Midstream<br /><br />Third-quarter financial results: Midstream third-quarter net income was $173 million, compared with $162 million in the previous quarter and $104 million in the third quarter of 2007. The increases from the previous quarter and the third quarter of 2007 were primarily due to higher realized natural gas liquids prices, partially offset by lower volumes largely due to hurricane disruptions, as well as higher operating costs.<br /><br />Nine-month financial results: Midstream net income for the first nine months of 2008 was $472 million, compared with $291 million in 2007. The increase was primarily due to higher realized natural gas liquids prices, partially offset by higher operating costs.<br /><br />Refining and Marketing (R&M)<br /><br />Third-quarter financial results: R&M net income was $849 million in the third quarter, compared with $664 million in the previous quarter and $1,307 million in the third quarter of 2007.<br /><br />The increase in net income from the previous quarter was primarily due to improved global realized marketing margins and lower turnaround costs, which were partially offset by lower refining volumes. The decrease in net income from the third quarter of 2007 was primarily due to a lower net benefit from the company's asset rationalization efforts, the absence of a third-quarter 2007 German tax legislation benefit, and lower refining volumes.<br /><br />The U.S. realized refining margin for the third quarter was lower than the previous quarter as the benefit from higher clean product yields and improved margins for secondary products was more than offset by the narrowing of heavy crude differentials and inventory impacts related to the decrease in crude and refined product prices. The international realized refining margin was higher than the previous quarter due to the reduction of temporary inventory builds and improved clean product yields.<br /><br />The domestic refining crude oil capacity utilization rate for the third quarter was 90 percent, a 4 percent decrease from the previous quarter. The decrease was primarily due to hurricane impacts of approximately 6 percent, partially offset by lower turnaround activity. The international crude oil capacity utilization rate was 75 percent, down from 88 percent in the previous quarter as weak hydro-skimming margins continued to impact utilization at the company's Wilhelmshaven, Germany, refinery.<br /><br />Worldwide, R&M's refining crude oil capacity utilization rate was 87 percent, compared with 93 percent the previous quarter and 94 percent in the third quarter of 2007. Before-tax turnaround costs were $73 million in the third quarter of 2008, compared with $170 million in the previous quarter and $27 million in the third quarter of 2007.<br /><br />Nine-month financial results: R&M net income for the first nine months of 2008 was $2,033 million, compared with $4,801 million in 2007. The decrease was primarily due to significantly lower U.S. refining margins, as well as lower refining volumes, a reduced net benefit from the company's asset rationalization efforts, the absence of the German tax legislation benefit, and higher operating costs. These decreases were partially offset by higher global marketing margins.<br /><br />LUKOIL Investment<br /><br />Third-quarter financial results: LUKOIL Investment segment net income for the third quarter was $438 million, compared with $774 million in the previous quarter and $387 million in the third quarter of 2007. The results include ConocoPhillips' estimate of its equity share of OAO LUKOIL's (LUKOIL) income for the third quarter based on market indicators and LUKOIL's publicly available operating results. The decrease in net income from the previous quarter was primarily due to lower estimated volumes and realized prices, as well as higher estimated operating costs and taxes. The increase in net income from the third quarter of 2007 was primarily due to higher estimated realized prices, partially offset by higher estimated taxes and operating costs, as well as lower estimated volumes.<br /><br />For the third quarter of 2008, ConocoPhillips estimated its equity share of LUKOIL production was 422,000 BOE per day and its share of LUKOIL daily refining crude oil throughput was 228,000 barrels per day.<br /><br />Nine-month financial results: Net income for the first nine months of 2008 was $1,922 million, compared with $1,169 million in 2007. The increase was primarily due to higher estimated realized prices, partially offset by higher estimated taxes and operating costs, as well as lower estimated volumes.<br /><br />Chemicals<br /><br />Third-quarter financial results: Chemicals net income was $46 million in the third quarter, compared with $18 million in the previous quarter and $110 million in the third quarter of 2007. The increase from the previous quarter was primarily due to higher olefins and polyolefins margins, partially offset by lower aromatics and styrenics margins, costs associated with the decommissioning of an asset, and hurricane impacts. The decrease from the third quarter of 2007 was primarily due to higher utility costs and lower aromatics and styrenics margins.<br /><br />Nine-month financial results: Net income for the first nine months of 2008 was $116 million, compared with $260 million in 2007. The decrease was primarily due to higher utility costs and lower aromatics and styrenics margins.<br /><br />Emerging Businesses<br /><br />Emerging Businesses segment net income was $35 million in the third quarter, compared with $8 million in the previous quarter and $3 million in the third quarter of 2007. The increases from the previous quarter and the third quarter of 2007 were primarily due to higher international power generation results.<br /><br />Corporate and Other<br /><br />Third-quarter Corporate expenses were $281 million after-tax, compared with $186 million in the previous quarter and $320 million in the third quarter of 2007. The increase from the previous quarter was primarily due to foreign exchange losses. The decrease from the third quarter of 2007 was primarily due to lower net interest expense and the absence of acquisition-related costs, partially offset by foreign exchange losses. The number of weighted-average diluted shares outstanding during the third quarter was 1,528 million.<br /><br />The company's effective tax rate for the quarter was 45 percent. This compared with 44 percent in the previous quarter and 42 percent in the third quarter of 2007.<br /><br />Outlook<br /><br />Mr. Mulva concluded:<br /><br />"We recently announced our plan to create a long-term Australasian natural gas business with Origin Energy focused on coalbed methane production and liquefied natural gas (LNG) processing and sales. This joint venture leverages ConocoPhillips' strengths and experience in project management; coalbed methane; and LNG technology, operations and marketing. It also better balances ConocoPhillips' oil and gas resource mix, and our long-term production growth is expected to benefit from a steady, secure source of resource additions. With the transaction expected to close in the fourth quarter, we look forward to working with Origin in delivering a valuable energy resource to customers.<br /><br />"We also recently announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding with JSC National Company KazMunayGas (KMG) and Mubadala Development Company PJSC to negotiate terms for the exploration and development of the 'N' Block, located offshore Kazakhstan, under a new subsoil use contract. ConocoPhillips looks forward to establishing a major new exploration presence in Kazakhstan, and we are pleased to participate with KMG and Mubadala in this world-class exploration project.<br /><br />"Downstream, we were pleased to receive government approval in early September on a key permit associated with the expansion of the Wood River refinery, a facility located in Roxana, Ill., that is jointly owned by ConocoPhillips and EnCana Corporation. Upon completion, the expansion project will supply an additional 3.2 million gallons per day of clean gasoline and diesel in the region. In addition, the project provides significant environmental benefits, including a 95 percent reduction in sulfur dioxide emissions and a 25 percent reduction in nitrogen oxide emissions.<br /><br />"In terms of the fourth quarter, we anticipate the company's E&P segment production will be higher than the third quarter. We expect full-year 2008 production to be slightly below 1.8 million BOE per day due to the impact of higher prices on production-sharing-contract volumes and lost production associated with Hurricanes Gustav and Ike. We anticipate exploration expenses to be in the range of $400 million for the quarter.<br /><br />"In our downstream business, the fourth-quarter crude oil capacity utilization rate is expected to be in the mid-90-percent range. Turnaround costs are anticipated to be approximately $75 million before-tax for the quarter.<br /><br />"Share repurchases have continued into the fourth quarter. Through the end of October, we will have purchased approximately $8 billion of our shares in 2008 under the previously announced program. Share repurchase levels for the balance of the year will depend on market conditions and capital commitments. We will update the investment community in mid-December on the anticipated level of share repurchases for the fourth quarter, along with 2009 capital expenditure and share repurchase plans."<br /><br />ConocoPhillips is an international, integrated energy company with interests around the world. Headquartered in Houston, the company had approximately 33,600 employees, $185 billion of assets, and $262 billion of annualized revenues as of September 30, 2008. For more information, go to www.conocophillips.com. ConocoPhillips' quarterly conference call is scheduled for 11 a.m. Eastern time today. To listen to the conference call and to view related presentation materials, go to www.conocophillips.com and click on the "Investor Information" link. For detailed supplemental information, go to <a href="http://www.conocophillips.com/investor/financial_reports/earnings_reports">www.conocophillips.com/investor/financial_reports/earnings_reports</a>Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-6551771771128901332008-07-06T23:24:00.001+02:002008-07-06T23:27:33.792+02:00DOW THEORY - Análisis técnico: La teoría de Dow<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">The Dow theory has been around for almost 100 years. Developed by Charles Dow and refined by William Hamilton, many of the ideas put forward by these two men have become axioms of Wall Street.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Background:</span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Charles Dow developed the Dow theory from his analysis of market price action in the late 19th. Century. Until his death in 1902, Dow was part owner as well as editor of the Wall Street Journal. Even though Charles Dow is credited with initiating Dow theory, it was S.A. Nelson and William Hamilton who later refined the theory into what it is today. In 1932 Robert Rhea further refined the analysis. Rhea studied and deciphered some 252 editorials through which Dow and Hamilton conveyed their thoughts on the market.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Main Assumptions:</span></span></b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE"> </span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">1.<span style=""> </span>Manipulation of the primary trend as not being possible is the primary assumption of the Dow theory. Hamilton also believed that while individual stocks could be influenced it would be virtually impossible to manipulate the market as a whole.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">2.<span style=""> </span>Averages discount everything. This assumption means that the markets reflect all known information. Everything there is to know is already reflected in the markets through price. Price represents the sum total of all the hopes, fears and expectations of all participants. The un-expected will occur, but usually this will affect the short-term trend. The primary trend will remain unaffected. Hamilton noted that sometimes the market would react negatively to good news. For Hamilton the reason was simple: the markets look ahead, this explains the old Wall Street axiom "buy on the rumor and sell on the news".</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Even though the Dow Theory is not meant for short-term trading, it can still add value for traders. Thus no matter what your time frame, it always helps to be able to identify the primary trend. According to Hamilton those who successfully applied the Dow Theory rarely traded on too regular a basis. Hamilton and Dow were not concerned with the risks involved in getting exact tops and bottoms. Their main concern was catching large moves. They advised the close study of the markets on a daily basis, but they also sought to minimize the effects of random movements and recommended concentration on the primary trend.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Price Movement:</span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Dow and Hamilton identified three types of price movement for the Dow Jones Industrial and Rail averages:</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">A.<span style=""> </span>Primary movements<br /> B.<span style=""> </span>Secondary movements<br /> C.<span style=""> </span>Daily fluctuations</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">A.<span style=""> </span>Primary moves last from a few months to many years and represent the broad underlying trend of the market.</span></span><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE"><br /> B.<span style=""> </span>Secondary or reaction movements last for a few weeks to many months and move counter to the primary trend.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">B.<span style=""> </span>Daily fluctuations can move with or against the primary trend and last from a few hours to a few days, but usually not more than a week.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Primary movements</span></span></b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">, as mentioned, represent the broad underlying trend. These actions are typically referred to as BULL or BEAR trends.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Bull means buying or positive trends and Bear means negative or selling trends. <b>Once the primary trend has been identified, it will remain in effect until proven otherwise</b>. Hamilton believed that the length and the duration of the trend were largely undeterminable. Many traders and investors get hung up on price and time targets. The reality of the situation is that nobody knows where and when the primary trend will end.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">The objective of Dow theory is to utilize what we do know, </span></span></b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">not to haphazardly guess about what we do not. Through a set of guidelines. Dow theory enables investors to identify the primary trend and invest accordingly. Trying to predict the length and duration of the trend is an exercise in futility. <b>Success according to Hamilton and Dow is measured by the ability to identify the primary trend and stay with it.</b></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Secondary movements</span></span></b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE"> run counter to the primary trend and are reactionary in nature. In a bull market a secondary move is considered a correction. In a bear market, secondary moves are sometimes called reaction rallies. Hamilton characterized secondary moves as a necessary</span> <span style="" lang="EN-IE">phenomenon to combat excessive speculation. Corrections and counter moves kept speculators in check and added a healthy dose of guess work to market movements. Because of their complexity and deceptive nature,</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">secondary movements require extra careful study and analysis. He discovered investors often mistake a secondary move as the beginning of</span> <span style="" lang="EN-IE">a new primary trend.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Daily fluctuations, </span></span></b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">while important when viewed as a group, can be dangerous and unreliable individually. getting too caught up in the movement of one or two days can lead to hasty decisions that are based on emotion. <b>To invest successfully it is vitally important to keep the whole picture in mind when analyzing daily price movements. </b>In general they agreed the study of daily price action can add valuable insight, but only when taken in greater context.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">The Three Stages of Primary Bull Markets and Primary Bear Markets</span></span></b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Hamilton identified three stages to both primary bull and primary bear markets. The stages relate as much to the psychological state of the market as to the movement of prices.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="" lang="EN-IE"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:130%;">Primary Bull Market</span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="" lang="EN-IE"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:100%;color:#ad9400;">Stage 1.<span style=""> </span>Accumulation</span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Hamilton noted that the first stage of a bull market was largely indistinguishable from the last reaction rally in a bear market. Pessimism, which was excessive at the end of the bear market, still reigns at the beginning of a bull market. In the first stage of a bull market, stocks begin to find a bottom and quietly firm up. After the first leg peaks and starts to head down, the bears come out proclaiming that the bear market is not over. It is at this stage that careful analysis is warranted to determine if the decline is a secondary movement. <b>If is a secondary move, then the low forms above the previous low,</b> a quiet period will ensue as the market firms and then an advance will begin. When the previous peak is surpassed, the beginning of the second leg and a primary bull will be confirmed.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="" lang="EN-IE"><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:100%;color:#ad9400;">Stage 2.<span style=""> </span>Movement With Strength</span></b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">The second stage of a primary bull market is usually the longest, and sees the largest advance in prices. It is a period marked by improving business</span> <span style="" lang="EN-IE">conditions and increased valuations in stocks. This is considered the easiest stage to make profit as participation is broad and the trend followers begin to participate.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="" lang="EN-IE"><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:100%;color:#ad9400;">Stage 3.<span style=""> </span>Excess</span></b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Marked by excess speculation and the appearance of inflationary pressures. During the third and final stage, the public is fully involved in the market, valuations are excessive and confidence is extraordinarily</span> <span style="" lang="EN-IE">high.<span style=""> </span></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="" lang="EN-IE"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:130%;">Primary Bear Market</span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="" lang="EN-IE"><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:100%;color:#008080;">Stage 1.<span style=""> </span>Distribution</span></b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Just as accumulation is the hallmark of the first stage of a primary bull market, distribution marks the beginning of a bear market. As the "smart money" begins to realise that business conditions are not quite as good as once thought, and thus they begin to sell stock. There is little in the headlines to indicate a bear market is at hand and general business conditions remain good. However stocks begin to lose their lustre and the decline begins to take hand. After a moderate decline, there is a reaction rally that retraces a portion of the decline. <b>Hamilton noted that reaction rallies during a bear market were quite swift and sharp</b>. This quick and sudden movement would invigorate the bulls to proclaim the bull market alive and well. <b>However the reaction high of the secondary move would form and be lower than the previous high. </b>After making a lower high, <b>a break below the previous low, </b>would confirm that this was the second stage of a bear market.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="" lang="EN-IE"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:100%;color:#008080;"><b>Stage 2.<span style=""> </span>Movement With Strength</b></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">As with the primary bull market stage two of a primary bear market provides the largest move. This is when the trend has been identified as down and business conditions begin to deteriorate. Earnings estimates are reduced, shortfalls occur, profit margins shrink and revenues fall.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="" lang="EN-IE"><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:100%;color:#008080;">Stage 3.<span style=""> </span>Despair</span></b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">At the final stage of a bear market all hope is lost and stocks are frowned upon. Valuations are low, but the selling continues as participants seek to sell no matter what. The news from corporate America is bad, the economic outlook is bleak and no buyers are to be found. The market will continue to decline until all the bad news is fully priced into the stocks. Once stocks fully reflect the worst possible outcome, the cycle begins again.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Signals</span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Identification Of The Trend</span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="" lang="EN-IE"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;">The first step in the identifying the primary trend is to analyze the individual trend of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transport Average. Hamilton used peak and trough analysis to ascertain the identity of the trend. <b>An uptrend is defined by prices that form a series of rising peaks and rising troughs [higher highs and higher lows]. </b>In contrast, a </span><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;">downtrend is defined by prices that form a series of declining peaks and declining troughs [lower highs and lower lows].</span></b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="" lang="EN-IE"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;">Once the trend has been identified, it is assumed valid until proven otherwise. A downtrend is considered valid until a </span><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;">higher low forms</span></b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">and the ensuing advance off the higher low <b>surpasses the previous reaction high. </b>Conversely, an uptrend is considered in place until a lower low forms.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Averages Must Confirm</span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Hamilton and Dow stressed that for a primary trend or sell signal to be valid, both the Dow Jones Industrial and The Transport averages <b>must confirm each other. </b>For example if one average records a new high or new low, then the other must soon follow for a Dow theory signal to be considered valid.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Volume</span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Though Hamilton did analyze statistics, price action was the ultimate determinant. Volume is more important when confirming the strength of</span> <span style="" lang="EN-IE">advances and can also help to identify potential reversals. Hamilton thought that volume <b>should increase in the direction of the primary trend. </b>For example in a primary bull market, volume should be heavier on advances than during corrections. The opposite is true in a primary bear market. Volume should increase on the declines and decrease during the reaction rallies. <b>Thus by analysing the reaction rallies and corrections, it is possible to judge the underlying strength of the primary trend.</b></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Trading Ranges</span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="" lang="EN-IE"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;">In his commentaries over the years, Hamilton referred many times to "lines". Lines are horizontal lines that form trading ranges. Trading ranges develop when the averages move sideways over a period of time and make it possible to draw horizontal lines connecting the tops and the bottoms. These trading ranges indicate either accumulation or distrib-tion, but is was virtually impossible to tell which </span><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;">until there was a clear break to the upside or the downside.</span></b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Conclusion</span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">The goal of Dow and Hamilton was to identify the primary trend and catch the big moves up and be out of the market the rest of the time. They well understood that the market was influenced by emotion and prone to</span> <span style="" lang="EN-IE">over-reaction, both up and down. With this in mind, they concentrated on identification and following the trend.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Dow theory [or set of assumptions] helps investors <b>identify facts. </b>It can form an excellent basis for analysis and has become the cornerstone for many professional traders in understanding market movement. Hamilton and Dow believed that success in the markets required serious study and analysis. They realized that success was a great thing, but also realized that failure, while painful, should be looked upon as learning experiences.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,verdana;font-size:85%;"><span style="" lang="EN-IE">Technical analysis is an art form and the eye and mind grow keener with practice. Study both success and failure with an eye to the future.</span></span></p>Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-65702428873190446662008-02-24T13:33:00.001+01:002008-02-24T13:35:48.827+01:00El superávit anual sube a 23.368 millones a pesar de la rebaja fiscalLos 23.368 millones de superávit del 2007 se desglosan en 13.526 millones del Estado (el 1,29% del PIB) y otros 13.085 de la Seguridad Social (el 1,25%). Por primera vez, el Estado obtuvo un mejor registro que la Seguridad Social. Las autonomías anotaron un déficit de 1.745 millones y los ayuntamientos, de 1.498.<br /><br />Los ingresos del Estado registraron un fuerte aumento del IRPF (del 15,7%) y del impuesto sobre sociedades (del 20,5%).<br /><br />En el conjunto de la legislatura, las Administraciones Públicas han acumulado un superávit de 46.803 millones de euros que han servido para reducir la deuda pública desde un registro del 48,7% del PIB, en el 2003, hasta el 36,2% a finales del 2007.<br /><br />El superávit de la Seguridad Social se destinará a engrosar el fondo de reserva de las pensiones (que ya suma 50.909 millones de euros, el 5% del PIB, equivalente al pago de nueve meses de prestaciones).Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-75980688111694518852008-02-24T12:46:00.001+01:002008-02-24T12:48:21.660+01:00Pumpido se indigna por el fallo sobre 'los Albertos'El fiscal general discrepa "total, radical y profundamente" de la exoneración.<br /><br />La sentencia del Tribunal Constitucional que anula la condena a Alberto Cortina y Alberto Alcocer, los primos conocidos como los Albertos, provocó ayer una cascada de reacciones. El fiscal general del Estado, Cándido Conde-Pumpido, no escondió su "total, radical y absoluta" discrepancia con el fallo. La fiscalía ha defendido ante la Audiencia de Madrid, el Tribunal Supremo y el Constitucional la condena de los Albertos por haber estafado a sus socios cuando vendieron los terrenos de Urbanor en los que se construyeron las Torres KIO de Madrid. Por ello, apoyó la sentencia del Supremo que les condenó a tres años y cuatro meses de prisión por estafa y falsedad en documento mercantil. "Es un fallo con todas las garantías y no es irrazonable", agregó el jurista.<br /><br />María Teresa Fernández de la Vega, tras acatar el fallo, reconoció que la sentencia del Alto Tribunal "puede provocar una cierta inquietud porque parece que puede haber dos tipos de justicia".Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-52310171077205922522008-02-20T00:28:00.000+01:002008-02-20T00:30:16.721+01:00Articulos para novatos en bolsaMi colección de artículos para novatos en bolsa. Me dicen esto de ellos:<br /><br />Muy buena colección de artículos para empezar en bolsa, los novatos en bolsa necesitamos cosas así que nos ayuden a entender la bolsa de verdad.<br /><br />A mí me han gustado mucho <a href="http://www.rankia.com/blog/fernan2/2006/09/primeras-experiencias-en-bolsa.html" rel="nofollow">Primeras experiencias en bolsa</a>, <a href="http://www.rankia.com/blog/fernan2/2006/12/inversion-especulacion-ludopatia-y.html" rel="nofollow">Inversión, especulación, ludopatía y ruina</a> y <a href="http://www.rankia.com/blog/fernan2/2007/04/analisis-fundamental-capitulo-primero.html" rel="nofollow">Análisis fundamental, capítulo primero</a>, pero todos son buenos para novatos en bolsa como yo.Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-17992604323511212862008-02-20T00:25:00.001+01:002008-02-20T00:27:37.210+01:00PER 200 en FersaFersa estrenó su salida al continuo con un desplome, cayendo de más de 12€ a menos de 8€ en poco más de una semana. Por entonces, escribí un artículo titulado "Fersa, o como algunos nunca aprenden"... Posteriormente se recuperó, pero ahora ha caído con más fuerza.<br /><br />No estoy vendido de Fersa, así que no tengo motivos para alegrarme de que Fersa caiga. No le deseo el mal a quienes compran un PER de Fersa estratosférico... sólo les aviso de lo que les puede pasar.Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-6580687884242221152008-02-20T00:18:00.001+01:002008-02-20T00:20:39.399+01:00Titulizacion de hipotecas subprime y crisis subprimeUna hipoteca subprime es darle una hipoteca de 240.000 euros a una pareja de mileuristas con contrato temporal para que se compren una casa de 250.000 euros, pagando un interés bajo los dos primeros años. Eso sí, la hipoteca subía luego al euribor + 8%...<br /><br />El problema es la contabilización de las pérdidas: Contabilizar las hipotecas subprime "mark-to-market" es complicado porque no hay liquidez en el mercado de titulizaciones de hipotecas subprime, y podría llevar a provisiones demasiado duras que dañaran excesivamente a las entidades, cuando el objetivo de provisionar es prevenir daños y no provocarlos. Pero claro, si las titulizaciones de hipotecas subprime se contabilizan "mark-to-model", eso abre la mano a que hagan lo que les dé la gana...Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-83995664456899327032008-02-19T23:42:00.003+01:002008-02-19T23:52:34.805+01:00La burbuja inmobiliaria se pone feaLa burbuja inmobiliaria se pone fea, muy fea... pero los bancos han sabido soltar lastre a tiempo, en máximos. Son las cajas las que lo tienen peor. Y Astroc, y Colonial, y Contsa, y Llanera, Habitat...Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-23782827188254608062008-02-19T23:42:00.000+01:002008-02-19T23:46:04.518+01:00Hipotecas multidivisa en yenesAun está muy de moda en algunos sitios el tema de las hipotecas multidivisas en general, y en yenes en particular, así que voy a tocar el tema... Al fin y al cabo, es un tema que siento como muy personal, porque yo me quise sacar una hipoteca multidivisa en yenes cuando me compré mi piso, en el 99... y cuando cambié el préstamo a otra entidad, en el 2001 ¿Y por qué no lo hice? Pues tropecé con el principal problema que tienen las hipotecas multidivisas: convencer a mi mujer!!Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-13075287175778669302008-02-19T21:17:00.001+01:002008-02-19T21:24:12.888+01:00Fondos de inversion: Lo que el banco no diceDescripción de algunas malas prácticas que algunos gestores de fondos podrían, o no, estar realizando en provecho propio y en detrimento de sus partícipes. En Fondo-Timo, se dedican a dar contrapartida al banco, permiten el late-trading, generan comisiones para el banco y se comen algunas malas operaciones de Fondo-VIP... todo ello, aderezado con una gestión mediocre por culpa del benchmarking.Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-72846141292614891282007-10-19T08:24:00.000+02:002007-10-19T08:26:30.012+02:00Anuncian pacto para proteger los derechos de autor en la red<span style="font-weight: bold;">Los gigantes de la comunicación norteamericanos, entre los que destacan Viacom, Walt Disney y Microsoft, acordaron hoy aplicar una serie de directrices para proteger los derechos de autor en Internet.<br /></span><br />Las empresas, entre las que también figuran los canales estadounidenses CBS y NBC, además de Fox y la red social MySpace, alcanzaron un pacto por el que se comprometen a aplicar la tecnología necesaria para eliminar los contenidos que atentan contra los derechos de autor en Internet.<br /><br />Los participantes en el pacto han destacado la importancia de la red como lugar de creación y de intercambio de obras audiovisuales, un sector en el que se centran buena parte de sus iniciativas, aunque entre las empresas de comunicación firmantes no figura Google, propietaria de la mayor página de intercambio de vídeo YouTube.<br /><br />Según un comunicado emitido por Viacom, los gigantes de la comunicación pretenden así seguir innovando en los contenidos que ofrecen en línea, entre los que destacan los desarrollados por los propios usuarios, pero 'respetando siempre la propiedad intelectual de los propietarios de ese contenido'.<br /><br />'La colaboración entre todos nosotros y la ayuda de las nuevas tecnologías pueden allanar el camino hacia un mayor crecimiento en la disponibilidad de vídeos en la red de modo que sea bueno para los consumidores y los propietarios de los derechos de autor', aseguró en el mismo comunicado el presidente de Walt Disney, Bob Iger.<br /><br />Las directrices que han acordado aplicar cuentan con el objetivo de llevar a la destrucción el material ilegítimo que los usuarios hayan podido introducir en la red y de bloquear cualquier material de este tipo antes de que el público tenga acceso al mismo.<br /><br />Las empresas han asegurado que lucharán contra la piratería en la red eliminando asimismo de sus páginas web cualquier enlace que lleve a portales electrónicos dedicados al intercambio de material pirateado.<br /><br />Los responsables del pacto reconocen la importancia que juega la red como lugar de intercambio de creaciones audiovisuales, algo que, al mismo tiempo, aseguran que ha multiplicado el número de delitos contra los derechos de autor.<br /><br />'Estos principios son un paso muy importante para establecer Internet como una gran plataforma para el contenido audiovisual, una que permita innovar y preservar iniciativas para todos los creadores, grandes y pequeños, respetando los derechos de autor', aseguró en el comunicado el consejero delegado de Microsoft, Steve Ballmer.<br /><br /><div class="shadow"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Mi comentario:</span> Esto huele que apesta a chanchullo para manipular Internet, con la excusa de proteger los derechos de autor lo que pretenden es meter la censura donde quieran.</div>Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-8484403828314976262007-10-18T00:24:00.001+02:002007-10-18T00:24:43.066+02:00Medtronic Inc (MDT) - ¿Buena oportunidad a largo plazo?Esta es una vieja conocida nuestra. Líder mundial de instrumental médico, especialmente conocida por sus aparatos para el corazón. Comprada en Noviembre de 2006 a $48,50 y vendida con pena en Agosto de 2007 a $52,70 para comprar JNJ. Como ya dije, el motivo de la venta era que quería tener a toda costa JNJ y, aunque MDT me parece una inversión "obligatoria" en toda buena cartera de largo plazo, tenía que venderla porque había mucho solape entre la actividad de JNJ y MDT (JNJ también tiene división de instrumental).<br /><br />En menos de dos sesiones, sus acciones han caído desde $56,33 hasta $49,44 en estos momentos. Supone un 12,23% de descenso o una pérdida de casi $7.600 millones de capitalización. En el <a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071015/heart_device.html?.v=11">enlace</a> podéis leer el motivo. Básicamente, se han descubierto algunos desfibriladores defectuosos. La FDA calcula que son menos del 1% de los 268.000 implantados. Ante este descubrimiento, la compañía ha pedido a los médicos que dejen de implantarlos. Como podéis ver en el enlace, MDT estima que todo esto va a suponer un descenso máximo de los ventas de $250 millones (esto supone $57,50 millones de beneficio neto) a lo que habría que sumos otros $40 millones por otros motivos como devaluación de inventarios. En total, la compañía ha calculado que en el peor de los casos el coste directo será de $100 millones.<br /><br />A estos $100 millones habría que sumarle unos cuantos más por daños de imagen que lastrarán sus ventas generales y bastantes más por conflictos legales (seguro que hay algún juicio, indemnizaciones...) Vamos a ponernos en un escenario muy malo. Supongamos que por la imagen reducen sus ventas un 5% del total del año pasado. Serían $615 millones que con un margen neto del 23% supondrían un descenso del beneficio de $141 millones. Por otro lado, tenemos 2.680 desfibriladores defectuosos. Vamos a ponernos bestias y supongamos que todos los que tengan el desfibrilador dañado merecen indemnizaciones de $2 millones. El impacto total de la noticia sobre el beneficio sería: $100 + $141 + $2.680 = $5.601 millones. Supongamos que MDT no está asegurada y que va a pagarlos ella solita.<br /><br />Con todo esto, el impacto real de la noticia sería de $5.601 millones (en un escenario absolutamente malo) frente a su impacto de $7.600 millones en la cotización. A corto plazo, la caída de estos días no tiene sentido. A largo plazo, teniendo en cuenta que en el pasado ejercicio MDT generó $2.400 millones en Free Cash Flow y que la tasa de crecimiento del FCF durante la última década fue superior al 20% anual, el impacto de la moticia en la empresa a largo plazo (a menos que salgan nuevos datos que la compliquen mucho) es nulo. Así de rotundo: nulo. (Este es el escenario terrible, personalmente me sorprendería si el impacto supera los $500 millones, que ya sería 5 veces más de lo que calcula la propia empresa).<br /><br />Por tanto, MDT puede ser una buena oportunidad de compra. Recordad que antes de comprar es imprescindible que analicéis vosotros mismos la empresa. Os dejo mi <a href="http://www.rankia.com/blog/toros-osos-y-borricos/2006/11/compras-medtronic-inc-mdt.html#links">análisis</a> inicial de la compañía de cuando la compré hace unos meses. Es muy posible que, como decíamos hoy en el <a href="http://www.rankia.com/blog/toros-osos-y-borricos/2007/10/invierto-mal-porque-no-tengo-dinero.html#links">artículo anterior</a>, estemos ante una de esas empresas que a largo plazo haga crecer nuestro capital poco a poco, año a año.Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-44833721806303952732007-10-18T00:19:00.000+02:002007-10-18T00:23:32.231+02:00COMPRAS: MEDTRONIC Inc. (MDT) 17 de noviembre de 2006<div align="justify">Por primera vez desde que inicié el blog he comprado una empresa. Llegué a ella gracias al <a href="http://toros-osos-y-borricos.blogspot.com/2006/10/zimmer-holdings-inc-zmh.html">análisis de ZMH</a>. Ya la conocía pero nunca me había parado a analizarla. Después de tres días de leer cuentas analuales, analizar los balances y calcular los riesgos, esta misma tarde compré unas cuantas acciones. Ahora me queda un 7% de liquidez. Me gusta tener liquidez por si aparece alguna buena oportunidad. Sin ir más lejos, el lunes presenta resultados <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=mdt">MDT</a>. Si son peores de lo esperado y la acción cae, me quedaré sin liquidez. Ahí os dejo mi análisis.</div><div align="justify"><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><strong>1. DESCRIPCIÓN DE LA COMPAÑÍA</strong></span></div><div align="justify"><br />Medtronic (MDT) es líder mundial en el desarrollo y fabricación de aparatos médicos para el tratamiento de diversas enfermedades crónicas. Sus campos de trabajo son: problemas cardiacos, problemas vasculares, problemas neurológicos (parkinson, depresiones...), gástricos (acidez, obesidad...), urológicos, diabéticos, trastornos craneales y vertebrales y desarrolla sistemas de cirugía guiados por imagen. Más información sobre las áreas de negocio en el <a href="http://www.medtronic.es/ES/about/businesses.html">enlace</a>. </div><div align="justify"><br />Se fundó en 1949 en Minneapolis. Gracias MDT hoy tenemos marcapasos, ya que es su fundador quien en en 1957 desarrolló el primer marcapasos cardiaco a pilas y transportable (a lo mejor es por esto por lo que tiene un 50% de cuota de mercado de aparatos médicos para problemas de corazón). Tiene 31.000 empleados y durante el ejercicio 2006 obtuvo unas ventas record de $11.292 millones y unos beneficos (Net Income) de $2.546 millones. Su capitalización es de $56.000 millones (es la mayor empresa del sector a nivel mundial).</div><div align="justify"><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><strong>2. ESTRATEGIA Y POTENCIAL DE CRECIMIENTO</strong></span></div><div align="justify"><br />MDT tiene una cartera de productos diversificada a lo largo de una amplia gama de dolencias crónicas comunes. Su posición de líder en estos segmentos le coloca en una situación envidiable a la hora de tomar ventaja en las nuevas tendencias del cuidado de este tipo de dolencias. Su estrategia se centra en potenciar sus productos de marca, siendo líder indiscutible en el cuidado de la diabetes, problemas neurológicos y problemas de espina dorsal (sus ventas en estos tres segmentos son el 35% del total de las ventas de MDT. Así mismo, MDT es una de las empresas más innovadoras del sector, centrándose en enfermedades tales como la diabetes, problemas cardio-vasculares y neurológicos y siendo líder en todas ellas. </div><div align="justify"><br />El factor clave de crecimiento es el envejecimiento de la población de los países occidentales, ya que será un factor determinante para el aumento de la demanda. Además, son productos que generan una lealtad a la marca muy elevada, con lo que es difícil que los consumidores, una vez iniciada su relación con MDT, cambién a la competencia. Lo mismo ocurría en ZMH (ver <a href="http://toros-osos-y-borricos.blogspot.com/2006/10/zimmer-holdings-inc-zmh.html">análisis</a>).</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">3. RIESGOS</span></strong></div><div align="justify"><br />Como ya dijimos al analizar ZMH, dos factores externos son la clave del éxito en el sector de Cuidados de la Salud: 1) la regulación jurídica y 2) la innovación tecnológica. </div><div align="justify"><br />La entrada de los demócratas en las Cámaras estadounidenses está causando cierta volatilidad en todo el sector por miedo a cambios en la regulación. Personalmente (esto es una opinión, no un hecho) no creo que introduzcan grandes cambios legales que puedan dañar la rentabilidad del sector a largo plazo. </div><div align="justify"><br />Como accionistas de este tipo de empresas, debemos ser conscientes de la responsabilidad especial que tenemos con la sociedad mundial (no sólo con la de los países desarrollados). Nuestros productos pueden cambiar las vidas de millones de personas de todo el mundo aquejadas de las más múltiples dolencias y trastornos. Da lo mismo que esas personas sean consumidores. Da lo mismo que esas personas no puedan pagar los tratamientos. Ellas los necesitan y proporcionárselos es una OBLIGACIÓN de todas las empresas del sector. Es bueno para la humanidad que las empresas de Cuidados de la Salud democraticen su política comercial. Deben acordarse de África no para utilizarla como conejillo de indias, sino para ayudarla. Deben utilizar parte de los enormes beneficos anuales para investigar y tratar enfermedades raras que no son tan rentables como la diabetes, pero que destrozan las vidas de mucha gente. Sinceramente creo que esa es la única forma que tienen estas empresas de crear valor y que, a largo plazo, una estrategia comercial HUMANA es mucho más rentable. Y si como accionistas tenemos que perder un porcentaje del beneficio para destinarlo a estos fines, que así sea. Espero de todo corazón que los futuros cambios legales que afecten al sector, tengan esa dirección y no estén enfocados a un aumento de la recaudación fiscal o a un simple ahorro de los consumidores de países desarrollados .</div><div align="justify"><br />Sobre la innovación tecnológica, la mayor competencia se registra en el terreno de la diabetes. No es raro pues es una enfermedad cada vez más habitual. MDT tiene una posición dominante y una fortaleza financiera muy superior a la de sus competidores, con lo que no deberíamos estar muy preocupados con este punto, aunque es importante seguirlo de cerca.</div><div align="justify"><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><strong>4. SITUACIÓN FINANCIERA Y CALIDAD</strong></span></div><div align="justify"><br />Secillamente perfecta. Sus ratios de endeudamiento y liquidez son bajísimos y mantiene esta tendencia desde hace más de una década. Su apalancamiento es de 2,27 veces. Su riesgo negocio es bajísimo (gracias a sus ya comentadas ventajas competitivas). Históricamente tiene un Net Margin del 20% y un Free Cash Flow / Sales del 20%. La tendencia en ambas medidas a mejorar sus marcas (Net Margin 2006: 22,60% y FCF/S 2006: 27,48%). Por tanto, su fortaleza financiera es inmejorable y su calidad (medida con el NM y FCF/S es altísima).</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">5. RENTABILIDAD</span></strong></div><div align="justify"><br />Es una empresa extremadamente rentable. Aunque tiene un apalancamiento bajísimo, su ROE medio histórico es del 21,74% siendo el del 2006 del 27,19%. Es lo que los americanos llaman una <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cashcow.asp">cash cow</a>. Su inversión en CAPEX no llega a un 5% de las ventas y su FCF/S es de un 20%. Su rentabilidad por dividendo, sin embargo, es baja: 0,90%. </div><div align="justify"><br /><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">6. VALORACIÓN</span></strong></div><div align="justify"><br />Sus múltiplos actuales son los más bajos de los últimos 10 años. Además, si los comparamos con los del S&P, está en un momento de valoración relativa muy baja. Tengo bastante confianza en el análisis por descuentos de flujos ya que no espero caídas pronunciadas en la demanda de sus productos (su innovación tecnológica es la más puntera y la población envejece). Su situación financiera, su rentabilidad y su bajísima valoración por múltiplos provoca su prima de riesgo sea muy baja. Además, tenemos grandes fondos de inversión incrementando posiciones en el valor, lo cual siempre aporta confianza.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Por todo ello, el Precio Justo de la compañía lo sitúo en la franja de los $80 - $84 por acción. Creo que con el precio actual (sobre $48) es una oportunidad de inversión con un márgen de seguridad más que suficiente para el inversor de largo plazo.</strong> </div><div align="justify"><br /><em>NOTA: como toda inversión en norteamérica, el cambio de la divisa es muy importante aunque diversos estudios académicos demuestran que, a largo plazo, la incidencia de la divisa es mínima.</em></div>Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-23140858808621896872007-10-17T21:52:00.002+02:002007-10-17T21:58:29.603+02:00Medtronic pasa "las de Caín" con sus desfibriladores<span style="font-style:italic;">Sanidad recomienda identificar a los pacientes con electrodos implantables de la marca Sprint Fidelis y acudir al médico en caso de que se produzcan demasiadas descargas.</span><br /><br />Reconocer errores de fabricación es un billete seguro para pleitear en Estados Unidos, sobre todo cuando ya hay cinco pacientes fallecidos como consecuencia de una rotura de los electrodos defectuosos de Medtronic. Pero no le queda otra al líder mundial en tecnología médica.<br /><br />La compañía de Minneapolis ha informado que estas roturas afectan al 2,3% de los 268.000 modelos puestos en el mercado, de los que 235.000 se han implantado en pacientes para controlar su ritmo cardiaco.<br /><br />La asociación de consumidores Public Citizen ya ha pedido explicaciones tanto a la empresa, que ha decidido suspender voluntariamente el suministro de esta marca y retirar los dispositivos del mercado no implantados, como a la Agencia Estadounidense del Medicamento. Y las explicaciones de los abogados también parece que han llegado a los juzgados de Minneapolis y Puerto Rico en forma de demandas.<br /><br />La empresa ha contabilizado en España a 2.204 pacientes que tienen implantados estos desfibriladores defectuosos. Medtronic ha recibido por ahora la comunicación de 13 casos de roturas sin consecuencias graves.<br /><br />Después de su comunicado del pasado lunes por la mañana, la Agencia Española de Medicamentos y Productos Sanitarios envió hoy a primera hora de la tarde su alerta sanitaria. Este organismo recomienda a todos los centros hospitalarios que identifiquen y acuerden una cita "en el plazo de tiempo más breve posible" con todos los pacientes en los que han implantado estos dispositivos de la marca Sprint Fidelis.<br /><br />La empresa quiere con ello incrementar la detección de fracturas de los electrodos y reducir la probabilidad de fallos en los dispositivos. El 10% de las fracturas producidas afectan al conductor de alto voltaje y podrían ocasionar la imposibilidad de administrar terapia de desfibrilación.<br /><br />De momento no se considera apropiada la explantación de los electrodos de forma profiláctica y la Agencia recomienda a los pacientes de que en el caso de advertir el tono de alerta del dispositivo que su cardiólogo le ha indicado, experimente descargas frecuentes o pérdida de conocimiento, "acuda rápidamente al médico para realizar un seguimiento".Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-1350332374889407732007-10-17T21:52:00.001+02:002007-10-17T21:55:52.714+02:00Retiran un modelo de desfibrilador cardiaco tras la muerte de cinco pacientes<div class="text"> <div class="p">La compañía Medtronic suspendió ayer la distribución en todo el mundo de uno de sus equipos de desfibrilación implantables de última generación. Estos dispositivos se instalan en el corazón de enfermos con riesgo de sufrir una arritmia cardiaca. La retirada se produce después de que se detectaran defectos en un componente clave del sistema que le resta eficacia. Cinco muertes podrían estar relacionadas con este fallo. En España se ha implantado a 2.204 pacientes y aunque se han detectado alteraciones en 16 casos, no se ha producido ningún problema serio ni fallecimiento por su mal funcionamiento. La alerta no afecta a los portadores de marcapasos.</div> <div class="p">El componente que falla es un cable, un electrodo que conecta el corazón al desfibrilador. La misión de este dispositivo, similar a un marcapasos, es detectar y tratar los ritmos cardiacos anormalmente rápidos. Cuando se produce la arritmia, el desfibrilador aplica una descarga eléctrica al corazón para devolverle su ritmo normal. Los últimos desfibriladores de Medtronic incorporan un cable -el modelo «Sprint Fidelis»- de un calibre menor. Pero lo que suponía en principio un avance, se ha convertido en el origen del problema. Al reducirse la sección, el electrodo es más frágil y puede deteriorarse hasta su rotura completa. Este cable es un componente clave del dispositivo y su fractura impide que el desfibrilador se active en caso de arritmia.</div> <div class="p">Tras detectar problemas en 660 aparatos y relacionar cinco posibles muertes por este fallo, Medtronic ha realizado una retirada voluntaria de su producto. Los desfibriladores con este componente ya no se implantarán más. Pero la compañía no recomienda la retirada de los que ya se han implantado, ni siquiera una vigilancia más estrecha de los portadores. «El riesgo de una cirugía preventiva para cambiar los cables sería mayor que mantener el dispositivo. No estamos ante una alarma de gravedad», explicó ayer Javier Colás, director de Medtronic España.</div> <div class="p">La compañía ya ha avisado al Ministerio de Sanidad y a todos los hospitales españoles que han implantado este dispositivo desde el año 2004, fecha en la que empezaron a utilizarse los nuevos electrodos. Hasta la fecha, sólo se han detectado problemas en 16 pacientes españoles, ninguno de gravedad.</div> <div class="p">Luis Alonso Pulpón, presidente de la Sociedad Española de Cardiología, recordó ayer que alertas de este tipo son «relativamente frecuentes» y aseguró que «no hay razones para alarmarse». Los cardiólogos no alterarán el régimen de visitas de los portadores de los implantes. Pero están comprobando que los pacientes tratados con este modelo de desfibrilador tengan su sistema de alarma activo, «para estar atentos a cualquier problema», explicó el doctor Pulpón.<br /><br /></div> <div class="p" id="U1641154892926zuB" style="font-weight: bold;">Una alarma que avisa del riesgo</div> <div class="p">Todos los desfibriladores cuentan con su propio sistema de seguridad. Cuando se produce alguna alteración en el funcionamiento avisa al paciente con una alarma acústica. La alerta también salta cuando se detecta un incremento de la resistencia de los cables, como lo que sucede cuando se deterioran. La señal eléctrica no se transmite como debería y empieza a fallar. Un primer síntoma de la degradación del cable es el envío de descargas eléctricas innecesarias al corazón.</div> <div class="p">Los problemas graves sólo aparecen cuando el paciente tiene desconectada la alarma o desoye los avisos. Esta situación es poco común, aunque algunos médicos lo recomiendan a pacientes muy preocupados y obsesionados con la alarma. Sólo si los enfermos no acuden al médico ante las alertas o el cable se rompe definitivamente el paciente estaría en riesgo. Si su corazón sufriera una fibrilación ventricular, la arritmia más peligrosa, el desfibrilador sería incapaz de detectarla y tratarla. Si no se trata esta arritmia en los primeros cinco minutos, el paciente puede morir o sufrir lesiones cerebrales irreversibles.</div> <div class="p">«Llegar a esta situación es muy poco problable, es difícil que el enfermo no acuda antes a su médico para ver si hay algún problema», aseguró Colás, Si se observan fallos en los cables, el protocolo es cambiar sólo el cable, no todo el sistema.</div> <div class="p">Las primeras dudas sobre el funcionamiento de los desfibriladores de Medtronic, el mayor fabricante, surgieron a principios de año. Robert Hauser, del Instituto del Corazón de Minneapolis, publicó un estudio donde descubrió un significativo número de pacientes que sufrían descargas eléctricas innecesarias. Estas descargas pueden ser muy dolorosas.<br /><br /></div> <div class="p" id="U1641154892926dOC" style="font-weight: bold;">Retirada voluntaria</div> <div class="p">Entonces no había suficiente información para ordenar su retirada del mercado. Meses después, cuando ya se contaba con suficiente información se empezó a valorar qué hacer. Los fallos detectados no eran estadísticamente significativos, pero sí eran preocupantes.Al final, la compañía decidió retirar de forma voluntaria su producto.</div> <div class="p">La empresa optó por reducir el calibre de los cables que unen el desfibrilador al corazón en un intento por hacer más compactos y flexibles sus dispositivos. Así se podrían implantar con mayor facilidad y menos riesgo. La idea no fue buena. Se degradan con mayor facilidad que los antiguos, más gruesos.</div> </div>Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-2755342662204736582007-10-17T21:52:00.000+02:002007-10-17T21:56:48.008+02:00Medtronic podría reducir ingresos tras retirada electrodo de desfibrilación<h3>La compañía Medtronic, el mayor fabricante mundial de dispositivos médicos, advirtió hoy de que podrían reducirse sus ingresos del segundo trimestre tras la decisión de suspender voluntariamente la distribución en todo el mundo de los electrodos de desfibrilación de la familia Sprint Fidelis.<br /></h3><span class="par">Medtronic advirtió hoy a sus inversores de que sus ingresos podrían recortarse 150 millones de dólares hasta los 250 millones de dólares en el segundo trimestre debido a esta medida.</span><br /><br /><span class="par">El fabricante de dispositivos médicos decidió suspender de forma voluntaria la distribución en todo el mundo de los electrodos de desfibrilador de la familia Sprint Fidelis y recomendar a los médicos no realizar más implantes de estos dispositivos.</span><br /><br /><span class="par">Esta decisión se produce tras la muerte de cinco pacientes, a los que se les rompió este electrodo.</span><br /><br /><span class="par">Medtronic precisó en un comunicado que este tipo de cable se utilizaba sólo en desfibriladores o aparatos que aplican descargas eléctricas para restablecer el ritmo cardíaco normal, incluidos los llamados desfibriladores automáticos implantables (DAI) y los dispositivos para terapia de resincronización cardíaca y desfibrilación (TCR-D).</span><br /><br /><span class="par">La compañía precisó que unos 268.000 pacientes llevan implantado este dispositivo y les recomendó que consulten con un médico especialista.</span><br /><br /><span class="par">Sin embargo, añadió que un grupo independiente de expertos médicos asesores en calidad desaconseja el reemplazo profiláctico de los electrodos implantados, al considerar que el riesgo de retirar un electrodo o el de insertar otro es superior al bajo riesgo de fractura de un electrodo Sprint Fidelis.</span><br /><br /><span class="par">Medtronic también dejó claro que la medida no afecta a las personas que llevan marcapasos.</span><br /><br /><span class="par">La terapia de resincronización cardíaca es administrada mediante un dispositivo implantable para pacientes con insuficiencia cardíaca moderada o grave y asincronía ventricular.</span><br /><br /><span class="par">Esta terapia hace que ambos ventrículos se contraigan al mismo tiempo y de manera más sincronizada gracias a la administración de diminutos impulsos eléctricos a través de un dispositivo implantado en el pecho y conectado a tres cables, según precisa la página web de Medtronic.</span><br /><br /><span class="par">Un hora y cuarto antes del cierre de la Bolsa de Nueva York, las acciones de Medtronic bajaban un 12,39 por ciento hasta los 49,35 dólares por título.</span>Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-26891059466124490162007-10-14T23:53:00.000+02:002007-10-14T23:54:04.699+02:00Estados Unidos tendrá 30 centrales nucleares más en diez años<p>Mientras en la Unión Europea cobra fuerza el debate sobre la importancia que la energía nuclear debe tener en el mix energético, al otro lado del océano Atlántico parecen tenerlo claro. El presidente de la NRC (regulador de seguridad nuclear de EE UU), Dale Klein, afirmó ayer que ese país dispondrá en el próximo decenio de 30 nuevas centrales nucleares. Klein pronunció ayer una conferencia en Madrid, como colofón a la reunión anual de la Asociación Internacional de Reguladores Nucleares (INRA), integrada por nueve países y presidida en esta ocasión por España.</p> <p>Estados Unidos, primera potencia nuclear del mundo, tiene 104 plantas activas, muchas de las cuales verán próximamente culminado su periodo inicial de licencia (40 años). Sin embargo, Klein explicó que las revisiones de seguridad están siendo satisfactorias, de modo que se están otorgando prórrogas para veinte años más, e incluso es posible que se vaya después a otras dos décadas adicionales.</p> <p>El encuentro del INRA se celebró en Córdoba entre el lunes y el miércoles, pero ayer pronunciaron sendas conferencias y atendieron a la prensa los presidentes de los reguladores de EE UU, España y Francia. Este último, André-Claude Lacoste, explicó que su organismo no tiene competencias sobre la seguridad de las centrales frente a ataques terroristas, aunque reclamó a su Parlamento que las integrase. Lacoste se refirió a los incidentes radiológicos registrados en los últimos tiempos en su país (el más grave, en Épinal, causó varios muertos), y afirmó que el regulador está reclamando la máxima colaboración a los médicos.</p> <p>Por su parte, la presidenta del Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear, Carmen Martínez Ten, resaltó la importancia de la cooperación entre reguladores internacionales para aprender de las mejores prácticas y de los problemas ajenos, y destacó la formación de un foro similar al INRA en el ámbito latinoamericano.</p> <span class="txtNRel">El incidente de Juzbado lo sigue la policía</span> <p>Carmen Martínez Ten puso en común con sus homólogos del INRA el reciente incidente de la localidad salmantina de Juzbado, donde se encontraron 300 gramos de pastillas de combustible dentro del recinto, pero fuera de la planta de fabricación.</p><p>La presidenta del Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear dijo ayer que no pudo abundar en las explicaciones, dado que el caso está siendo investigado por las fuerzas de seguridad del Estado, aunque afirmó que desde el Consejo creen que 'es un tema que viene de dentro', en alusión al personal de la planta.</p>Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-28876235147117234322007-10-14T20:46:00.000+02:002007-10-14T20:54:21.954+02:00El 'efecto Facebook' marca la agenda de los grandes de internet<p>Las comunidades sociales de internet no son un fenómeno de futuro. Son ya un presente en el corazón del negocio de la red. Y hay ejemplos demoledores. En Corea, Cyworld.com ha logrado que el 43% de la población esté inscrita en sus registros de usuarios. En Europa, las redes sociales han logrado atraer a más de 127 millones de visitantes únicos, según ComScore. Este medidor de audiencias indica que se gasta en estos sitios online una media de tres horas al mes (aunque en países como Reino Unido esta magnitud sube a las 5,9 horas). En EE UU, Facebook, quizá el nombre más de moda, registró en agosto un crecimiento en su número de visitantes del 117% en relación al mismo mes del pasado año.</p> <p>En su avance, la moda de las comunidades sociales, cuyo gran acierto ha sido proporcionar a los usuarios un punto central en la web donde puedan almacenar aquello que les interesa e integrar todas sus actividades (como escuchar música, ver vídeos, hablar con amigos, escribir), ha llegado a los mercados financieros. Así, Classmates, filial de United Online, tiene intención de salir a bolsa antes de que concluya 2007 (registró recientemente su OPV). También Reunion.com, red social que cuenta con 30 millones de usuarios, cerró en el primer semestre una ronda de financiación de 25 millones de dólares, encabezada por Oak Investment Partners, uno de los grupos de capital riesgo de mayor solera en EE UU. Esta es la mayor inyección de financiación que una empresa de este perfil ha recibido hasta el momento.</p> <p>La expansión de las comunidades sociales y el interés logrado ha llevado a alguna de estas firmas a robar directivos a otras empresas con mucho renombre en internet. Un ejemplo se ha producido esta semana. Según algunos medios especializados, Benjamín Ling, uno de los ingenieros más cualificados de Google y considerado uno de los chicos de oro de la compañía, se ha marchado a Facebook. Y no es el primero. Justin Rosenstein, uno de los gestores de producto del buscador de internet, y Gideon Yu, ex director financiero de Youtube (otra filial de Google) recorrieron este mismo camino en los últimos meses.</p> <p>Pero, ¿qué tienen estas redes sociales que no tengan los portales? 'Han dado un paso más; el de 'ahora todo junto y en todas partes'. Lo que ha hecho Facebook y otras comunidades es permitirte integrar todas tus actividades en la red en una página, interactuando con ella desde cualquier dispositivo y plataforma, con especial importancia en la movilidad', explica Enrique Dans, profesor de tecnología del Instituto de Empresa.</p> <p>Un fenómeno al que los gigantes de la red no quieren perder de vista y al que empiezan a sumarse: Microsoft con su red social Space, Ask con Zwinky, Yahoo con Mash y Google con su Orkut. O la propia Ebay, que ha lanzado Neighborhoods, una comunidad con la que busca animar a los usuarios a que cuelguen fotos en la red, intercambien comentarios o abran foros de debate.</p> <table align="left" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="159"> <tbody><tr> <td bgcolor="#f6f5ee" width="11"><br /></td> <td bg="" style="color: rgb(246, 245, 238);"><span class="titularN"><br /> </span><span class="empRel">Las redes sociales prevén ingresar este año en EE UU casi 640 millones por publicidad</span><br /> <br /> </td> <td width="11"><br /></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <p>'El hecho de que los usuarios se sientan atraídos por estos servicios marcará la agenda de los grandes de internet', dice Bernardo Hernández, director mundial de Geomarketing de Google, quien está convencido de que habrá una integración entre redes sociales y portales. 'Estas comunidades son una dimensión nueva que será parte de todo lo que se haga en internet. Como una columna vertebral que articulará la forma en la que muchos de los servicios de la red se desarrollan'.</p> <p>En este sentido, Miguel Acosta, vicepresidente de desarrollo de negocio europeo de Ask.com, apunta que los grandes portales están reaccionando bastante rápidamente a las nuevas tendencias. 'A la hora de ver qué estrategia siguen, tienen dos alternativas: o crear (más arriesgado pero más barato) o comprar alguna red existente (a un precio elevado). Según el directivo, los gigantes de la red están apostando, de momento, más por la primera alternativa, 'pero si ven que les falla, seguramente derivarán a la segunda'. Acosta sostiene que si en el internet actual cada compañía compite dentro de su sector (comercio electrónico, anuncios clasificados, buscadores, comunidades…), en el futuro se camina hacia un entorno donde todos empiezan a competir contra todos a la hora de captar al usuario y competir en el segmento publicitario.</p> <p>La lucha está servida. Y es que las redes sociales en EE UU van a captar en 2007 unos ingresos de 900 millones de dólares (unos 638 millones de euros) procedentes de los anuncios insertados en sus respectivas páginas, según las previsiones de la consultora eMarketer, que apunta que MySpace, filial de News Corp, y Facebook, captarán el 72%. Este negocio aumentará hasta los 1.380 millones de dólares en 2008 para alcanzar los 2.500 millones en 2011.</p> <p>Eso sí, no todas las redes sociales viven exclusivamente de la publicidad. LinkedIn, dedicada a los directivos y otros trabajadores especializados y con la poderosa Sequoia Capital como accionista, cobra una suscripción a sus clientes, explica Aitor Chinchetru, experto en Telecomunicaciones de Arthur D. Little.</p> <p>José Antonio del Moral, director general de Alianzo, vaticina que los movimientos en el sector pueden ser drásticos puesto que, en su opinión, los portales temen perder más clientes en favor de las comunidades. 'Las redes ofrecen todo tipo de servicios y los usuarios no tendrían por qué salir de ella', señala.</p> <p>También las comunidades sociales son una amenaza a medio plazo para el correo electrónico de los portales tradicionales. 'El e-mail empieza a quedarse como una herramienta corporativa puesto que los internautas más jóvenes han optado por los sistemas de comunicación de estas redes que apuestan por el contacto en tiempo real', coinciden algunos expertos consultados. Otros, como Juan Carlos Fernández, director de MSN España, y Nacho Azcoitia, director general de Yahoo Iberia, defienden que el e-mail seguirá siendo uno de los servicios más utilizados, 'aunque se deje de usar un cliente de correo electrónico personal instalado en el disco duro de su ordenador para realizar la mayor parte de las comunicaciones a través de servicios online', subraya Azcoitia.</p> <table align="right" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="159"> <tbody><tr> <td bgcolor="#f6f5ee" width="11"><br /></td> <td bg="" style="color: rgb(246, 245, 238);"><span class="titularN"><br /> </span><span class="empRel">Classmates puede ser la primera comunidad en salir a cotizar en los mercados financieros</span><br /> <br /> </td> <td width="11"><br /></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <p>Pese a los movimientos emprendidos por los reyes actuales de la red, las especulaciones sobre posibles adquisiciones de las recién nacidas redes sociales se mantienen en los mercados financieros. De hecho, el propio Steve Ballmer, consejero delegado de Microsoft, se vio obligado a desmentir que su compañía tuviese intención de adquirir una participación de entre el 5% y el 10% de Facebook, una operación que podría valorar a esta última comunidad social en unos 7.100 millones de euros. Aún así, las operaciones no serán fáciles. Alberto Knapp, director general de The Cocktail, cree que es sumamente difícil integrar las comunidades sociales en las estructuras humanas y técnicas de los grandes portales. 'No se trata de comprar propiedades valiosas, sino de saber ponerlas en valor a medio plazo', asegura.</p> <span class="txtNRel">Debate sobre el impacto de las comunidades sociales</span> <p><b>The Cocktail: 'El filtrado colaborativo es la clave del éxito' </b></p><p>'Las nuevas redes sociales están democratizando internet', dice Alberto Knapp, director general de The Cocktail. Este experto cree que estos sitios han logrado que gente que apenas se conectaba a internet entre ahora todos los días para ver qué hacen sus amigos. Asegura que los portales tienen difícil sobrevivir si son sólo lugares de consulta del correo y el clima. En su opinión, la integración con las redes sociales es clave porque 'les permitirá segmentar mejor su oferta y revalorizar sus contenidos con las aportaciones de los usuarios, porque el filtrado colaborativo es más interesante que el automático porque el usuario filtra los contenidos de la web a través de su red de amigos'.</p><p><b>MySpace: 'Hay que rentabilizar el tiempo en internet' </b></p><p>Para Borja Prieto, director de contenidos de Myspace España, las redes sociales son la nueva forma de usar internet 'porque te permiten personalizar todo a tu gusto'. Además, considera que la integración de éstas con los portales 'se hace obvia', más cuando como explica 'vemos muchísimos casos de usuarios que lo hacen todo desde su perfil de Myspace'. En el fondo, continúa, 'no es más que una forma de rentabilizar el tiempo que dedicas a internet, porque dispones de todas las herramientas de comunicación online posibles en una sola web y esto seguro que afecta a los servicios tradicionales'.</p><p><b>Ask: 'Los jóvenes 'hablan' a través de estas redes'</b></p><p>'Más que los usuarios cualificados (que también son un nicho importante), las redes sociales están captando sobretodo a la generación que ha crecido con internet', destaca Miguel Acosta, vicepresidente de desarrollo de negocio europeo de Ask.com. Según el directivo, esta generación se comunica a través de la red (experiencias, comentarios, fotos, vídeos...) y, por tanto, 'pide más a las empresas de internet que un portal tradicional, que están perdiendo protagonismo dentro de ese nicho'. Aun así, asegura que obviamente no todas las redes sociales van a sobrevivir y que sufrirán una consolidación como antes vivieron los portales y los buscadores'.</p><p><b>Google: 'Descubren otra forma de contactar con la gente'</b></p><p>El fenómeno de las redes sociales está poniendo de manifiesto dos cosas, que nos gusta estar en contacto y que internet es un medio idóneo para ello, dice Bernardo Hernández, de Google. El directivo explica que 'estamos descubriendo una nueva manera de relacionarnos con la gente que conocemos que hasta ahora era imposible'. Y sólo es el principio de lo que veremos en los próximos años, añade. 'La forma en la que compartimos información va a ser mucho más efectiva y rápida'. Asegura que no cree que estas redes estén restando protagonismo a los portales, sino que 'es algo distinto que poco a poco irá calando todas la iniciativas que ya existen en la red'.</p><p><b>AOL: 'Los usuarios quieren una oferta personal'</b></p><p>Desde AOL aseguran que tienen la sensación de que hay otra fase en esta Web 2.0 que va más allá de lo que ya se ha conseguido. 'Nuestras investigaciones nos dicen que las audiencias clave abarcan la nueva generación de web basadas en servicios. Se trata de hacer funcionar internet para ellos de forma individual', subrayan. La filial de Time Warner considera que redes sociales y portales no son incompatibles, y se recuerda que estos últimos han aprendido mucho de las páginas de networking social, y reconocen que han aplicado este tipo de operaciones a su propio negocio. AOL indica que en su portal ha incluido servicios de Web 2.0 como la posibilidad de compartir fotos.</p><p><b>MSN 'La integración de los servicios aporta valor'</b></p><p>El director de MSN España, Juan Carlos Fernández, señala que las redes sociales no están restando protagonismo a los portales como MSN, Yahoo o AOL. 'Internet ha madurado y dispone de espacio de sobra para albergar más jugadores'. Fernández sostiene que la integración de los servicios online es lo que genera valor añadido al usuario, y que, por eso, la apuesta de Microsoft a través de Windows Live pasa por integrar su red social Windows Live Spaces con otras herramientas de la compañía como Messenger y Hotmail. Fernández añade que redes como Bebo han sellado una alianza con Microsoft para usar Messenger en su página web y simplificar el intercambio de contactos.</p><p><b>Alianzo: 'Facebook ha pasado a ser una plataforma' </b></p><p>José Antonio del Moral, director general de Alianzo, cree que Google teme a las comunidades sociales como Facebook, puesto que han sido capaces de convertirse en auténticas plataformas en las que los usuarios pueden desarrollar aplicaciones para todo tipo de servicios. 'Puedes crear una tienda, un software de gestión de fotos o un archivo de datos', asegura. No obstante, cree que en el enfrentamiento final ganará Google 'no sólo por su poderío económico sino por su capacidad de transformarse para encontrar nuevos negocios en la red'. Del Moral advierte que uno de los riesgos de las redes sociales es el peligro para la privacidad de los datos personales.</p><p><b>Yahoo 'Ayudan a rentabilizar la publicidad'</b></p><p>Nacho Azcoitia, director general de Yahoo Iberia, explica que los nuevos servicios de redes sociales 'han generado una base de usuarios altamente segmentada que crea la mejor oportunidad a los anunciantes para que transmitan sus mensajes a las audiencias más apropiadas y consigan rentabilizar su inversión en publicidad'. Asimismo, cree que el usuario va a seguir ganando protagonismo en la generación de contenidos. Azcoitia insiste en que Yahoo ha mantenido el concepto de la comunidad como el núcleo de la estrategia de la compañía en internet y 'todos nuestros servicios tienen el objetivo de aprovechar las herramientas de las redes sociales'.</p> <span class="txtNRel"><b>España y los móviles se apuntan a esta moda</b></span> <p>España no se ha quedado al margen de la moda de las comunidades sociales. Según los últimos datos recopilados por comScore, las redes sociales acumulan 8,8 millones de visitantes únicos, lo que sitúa a España en cuarta posición en el mercado europeo por detrás de Alemania, Reino Unido y Francia; y por delante de Italia. Asimismo, la media de utilización es de 1,8 horas mensuales y 14,9 visitas por usuario.</p><p>Entre las redes sociales españolas con mayor tirón, Aitor Chinchetru de Arthur D. Little, señala a Wamba, desarrollada en Mallorca por Matías de Tezanos y Enrique Dubois. La empresa, que asegura haber llegado al millón de usuarios, recibió una inyección de tres millones de euros del inversor danés Morten Lund (uno de los que contribuyó al lanzamiento de Skype), quien habría adquirido un 40% del capital.</p><p>Otra de las comunidades españolas que quiere posicionarse con fuerza es Tuenti, creada por Bernardo Hernández y Whoiswho Technologies, aunque aún está en fase beta privada. Otras iniciativas son nosuni.com, patatabrava.com y salir.com.</p><p>Al mercado español también han llegado comunidades sociales de otros países. Entre los ejemplos más claros figuran MySpace, que abrió sus puertas antes del verano, y la alemana EstudiLN que, según sus responsables, se integra en las redes estudiantiles europeas.</p><p>De todas maneras, los analistas consultados coinciden en que el modelo de comunidades sociales para estudiantes es muy diferente en España dado que aquí la mayoría vive en casa de sus padres, al contrario que en otros países donde se marchan antes de su domicilio paterno, situación que les obliga a un mayor uso de internet para comunicarse.</p><p>El fenómeno que sí puede tener un gran éxito en España es el acceso a las redes sociales desde el teléfono móvil, dada la alta penetración de celulares en el país. Según datos de M. Metrics, en torno a 751.000 usuarios españoles se estarían conectando a su respectiva comunidad social desde su terminal móvil. Este mercado se situaría por detrás de EE UU que cuenta con 7,5 millones de clientes en este ámbito; Italia con 1,3 millones y Reino Unido con 1,1 millones.</p><p>En este sentido, comunidades sociales como MySpace ya ha lanzado servicios exclusivos para el móvil lo que le ha llevado a convertirse en el líder en Reino Unido y EE UU, donde ya está accesible en operadoras como AT&T, Helio, Sprint y Amp'd. Entre ambos países, MySpace tiene ya 4,14 millones de clientes. En segundo lugar en ambos países estaría Facebook con 2,3 millones de usuarios. La comunidad está accesible en EE UU desde operadores como AT&T, Virgin y Sprint. Otra de las firmas relevantes es Bebo, que según comScore, ha superado ya los 288.000 clientes desde el móvil en Reino Unido, lo que le situaría en tercer lugar de este ranking.</p>Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-87902588354946661702007-10-14T20:42:00.000+02:002007-10-14T20:44:40.124+02:00Fluidra saldrá a Bolsa a un máximo de 7,55 euros el 31 de octubreEl fabricante nacional de piscinas Fluidra sacará el 39,14% del capital a Bolsa con un valor total de mercado entre 700,5 y 850,3 millones de euros. La empresa cuenta con dos divisiones, una del negocio integrado de piscinas y otra emergente de válvulas y sistemas de riego. El precio marcado oscila en una horquilla entre 6,22 y 7,55 euros por título.<br /><br /><p>La antigua Aquaria (inicialmente denominada Astral Pool) saldrá a Bolsa el 31 de octubre a un precio que oscilará entre 6,22 y 7,55 euros por acción. La empresa realizará una OPV de 44,08 millones de acciones (el 39,14% del capital), que incluyendo la posibilidad de que las entidades coordinadoras ejerzan la opción de compra (green shoe) se ampliará hasta los 48,98 millones de títulos (el 43,49% del capital).</p> <p>Precisamente, uno de los colocadores, Banco Sabadell, es accionista de la compañía, con una participación del 20%, por lo que podrá aumentar este porcentaje con su correspondiente opción de compra. Las otras dos entidades colocadoras son Citi (grupo Citigroup) y Banco Santander.</p> <p>De esta forma, las cuatro familias fundadoras (a través de las sociedades Aniol, Boyser, Dispur y Edrem) y Banco Sabadell (canaliza la inversión en Bidsa), que actualmente controlan el 90,3% del capital, contarán después de la oferta con el 57,6% de Fluidra, porcentaje que se reducirá hasta el 54,5% si el green shoe se ejercita en su totalidad. La compañía se ha valorado entre 700,5 millones y una capitalización máxima de 850,3 millones, según el folleto de admisión aprobado ayer por la CNMV. El PER, ratio resultante de dividir la cotización potencial de Fluidra entre el beneficio neto de diciembre de 2006 se situaría entre 25,5 y 30,95.</p> <p>El precio de la OPV se conocerá el 29 de octubre. La mitad de la oferta se destinará los inversores internacionales (22,04 millones de acciones), el 29,5% se repartirá en el tramo minorista, otro 20% para inversores cualificados en España y el 0,48% para los empleados. Fluidra cuenta con una plantilla de 3.600 trabajadores.</p> <p>La compañía que opera en la producción de accesorios para piscinas y soluciones para el tratamiento de aguas y fluidos cuenta con inversiones aprobadas para este año por valor de 23,8 millones.</p> <p>Además, Fluidra compró la semana pasada el grupo francés SAS Pacific Industrie por 6,5 millones.</p> <span style="font-weight: bold;" class="txtNRel">Riesgos en mercados maduros como EE UU</span> <p>La compañía, que facturó 390,5 millones de euros durante el primer semestre del año en curso, concentra el 80% de su actividad en la división de piscinas. El folleto de admisión refleja los riesgos de la madurez de esta división en países como Estados Unidos, Australia y Francia, mercados en los que la compañía concentró el 20,4% de las ventas en 2006. Además, hay que añadir que el mercado español también se considera 'relativamente maduro' (36,3% de la facturación). Otro de los riesgos potenciales que concreta la empresa es la elevada estacionalidad del negocio, que se concentró en un 60% en el primer semestre del ejercicio pasado. Finalmente, la información depositada en la CNMV avisa de la posible competencia de nuevos fabricantes a bajo coste provenientes de mercados emergentes en un futuro.<br /><br /></p><div class="shadow"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Artículos relacionados:</span><br /><a href="http://www.mejores-opiniones.es/opv/fluidra" title=" OPV Fluidra sí, OPV Fluidra no">Opinion OPV Fluidra</a></div>Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-12152229576383741542007-10-14T20:33:00.000+02:002007-10-14T20:37:57.962+02:00Los analistas quitan hierro al elevado PER de Codere<p>El grupo de casinos y juegos recreativos Codere calienta motores de cara a su próxima salida a Bolsa, prevista para el 25 de octubre. La compañía ya ha iniciado las presentaciones a inversores institucionales, los únicos a los que va dirigida la colocación. Y las reacciones iniciales mezclan la expectación por el estreno con las dudas sobre la actividad de la compañía.</p> <p>'De entrada, los principales riesgos tienen que ver con la regulación del juego, que varía según los países y según las comunidades autónomas en España. Pero es un negocio tan bueno como otro cualquiera, la oportunidad estará en el precio de salida', señalan en una firma de análisis. El folleto de la operación remitido a la CNMV establece una horquilla de precios de entre 21 a 26 euros por acción, lo que se traduce en un elevado PER, 'de los más altos de las salidas a Bolsa de los últimos cuatro años', según reconoce en el documento la propia compañía.</p> <p>Según los resultados a diciembre de 2006 y de acuerdo con la banda de precios, el PER de Codere resulta entre 129,9 y 160,8 veces. Sin embargo, los expertos recuerdan que se trata de una compañía en proceso de crecimiento y recuerdan la existencia de otros ratios orientativos. Desde Gaesco apuntan que si se toma en cuenta el valor de la empresa (entre 1.155,8 millones y 1.431 millones de euros) sobre el Ebitda resulta un ratio de entre 6,5 y 8,1 veces, que 'no es excesivamente caro'. Además, las previsiones de la compañía auguran tasas de crecimiento orgánico para los próximos años de al menos el 20% anual. Así, el PER estimado para 2007, de acuerdo con la estimación de beneficio neto, se rebajaría a una banda de entre 32,2 y 40 veces, siguiendo la referencia de la horquilla de precio de salida a Bolsa. Para 2008, el PER caería a entre 19,13 y 23,7 veces.</p> <p>Los analistas apuntan que hay que considerar a Codere como un negocio 'joven y en crecimiento'. De hecho, la compañía ya ha adelantado que no tiene previsto el reparto de dividendos en el medio plazo puesto que destinará sus beneficios a la expansión del grupo, con especial interés en México.</p> <p>Codere defiende además su condición de valor defensivo, a pesar de que la actividad del juego guarda una estrecha relación con la renta disponible y, por extensión, con el consumo interno. En opinión de Gaesco, 'hay un fuerte factor cíclico' en el valor, mientras que otros expertos sí reconocen su carácter defensivo, gracias en buena parte a la diversificación geográfica. En el primer semestre de este año, las operaciones fuera de España supusieron el 72,2% de los ingresos y el 69,9% del Ebitda consolidado.</p> <p>Más allá del precio, referencia ineludible para los analistas, el mercado aprecia la novedad que supondrá la presencia de Codere en la Bolsa española. 'Aporta algo distinto y eso ya es interesante. Estamos hartos de constructoras', ironizan en una gestora de fondos.</p> <span class="txtNRel">Criteria se pierde el alza del Ibex 35 y el rally de Telefónica</span> <p>El holding de participaciones de La Caixa vivió ayer una segunda jornada bursátil decepcionante. Aunque se apuntó un alza del 0,76%, frente al cierre en tablas de su debut del miércoles, no consiguió disfrutar del avance del 1,59% del Ibex 35 y, menos todavía, del ímpetu alcista de su participada Telefónica, de la que posee el 5,45%, y que ayer se disparó el 7%, hasta superar los 20 euros por acción. Gas Natural, otra de las principales participadas de Criteria, subió el 2,63%.</p><p>En contrapartida, la discreta marcha bursátil del holding de la caja catalana acentúa el descuento con que cotiza respecto a sus compañías participadas, uno de los aspectos más valorados por los inversores institucionales en el proceso de salida a Bolsa.<br /></p><br /><div class="shadow"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Artículos relacionados:</span><br /><a href="http://www.mejores-opiniones.es/opv/codere" title=" OPV Codere sí, OPV Codere no">Opinion OPV Codere</a></div>Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-46393001219391514262007-10-14T18:29:00.000+02:002007-10-14T20:32:54.782+02:00Fórmulas para sacar partido a la divisa fuerteLos máximos del euro, que ha rozado los 1,43 dólares, tienen una doble lectura. De esta forma, el cambio puede ofrecer un gran número de oportunidades para consumidores, inversores y ahorradores.<br /><br /><b>1. Bienvenido Míster García. La fortaleza del euro hace de los españoles unos clientes preciados en Estados Unidos</b> <p>Miami sale barato. La escalada del precio del suelo en España ha provocado que ya no sea tan extravagante ni propio sólo de folclóricas comprar una vivienda en Miami. 'Una apartamento nuevo en una urbanización de lujo -piscina con asistentes que te traen la toalla, aparca choches y gimnasio- cuesta unos 5.500 dólares 3.879 euros el metro cuadrado. Y estamos hablando de zonas lujosas. Si te vas al mercado de segunda mano el precio es mucho menor', explica Manuel G. Garnacho, director de la oficina regional para América Latina de C.B. Richard Ellis. Eso sí, el seguro de la vivienda es muy caro debido a que es una zona azotada a menudo por los huracanes.</p> <p>Sin embargo, ahora no parece el mejor momento para invertir en vivienda, pues el precio ha caído en Estados Unidos y en el sector persiste la incertidumbre. 'Ya lleva un año o más cayendo', asegura Garnacho. Con todo, Mauricio Uribe, de Miami Brokers, explica que la subida del euro ha provocado que cada vez más españoles, y no sólo grandes empresas, contacten con él para conocer la viabilidad de abrir un negocio en Florida. Una de las grandes ventajas es el idioma. De hecho, no es extraño que al llamar a Florida te respondan directamente en castellano.</p> <p>Otros que pueden beneficiarse de la fortaleza del euro son los estudiantes de intercambio. Cada año, miles de jóvenes españoles se desplazan cursar estudios en universidades americanas. Con el cambio actual puede salir más barato estudiar en América que en muchas capitales europeas como Londres.</p> <p>La cartera respira. La ortodoxia económica es clara al respecto. Una divisa fuerte sirve para controlar la inflación. El precio del euro repercute directamente en los bolsillos de todos los españoles. 'Y más cuando un producto como el petróleo, principal fuente de energía, se vende en dólares', explica Santiago Mínguez, profesor de ESADE y senior manager de KPMG.</p> <p>Desde el año 2006, el precio del barril de Brent, de referencia en el mercado europeo, ha subido un 35,2%. Sin embargo, si se utilizan euros, la escalada ha sido mucho menor, un 13,5%. Con todo, es difícil cuantificar el ahorro que el aprecio del euro supone en el coste de la gasolina, pues las compañías petroleras manejan multitud de variables a la hora de determinar el precio del carburante. Una subida o bajada del precio del crudo no se traduce en la misma proporción al precio final.</p> <p>La fortaleza del euro también ha contribuido, junto a la crisis de liquidez, a que Jean-Claude Trichet, presidente del Banco Central Europeo, aplace su política de subida de tipos de interés, que actualmente están en el 4%. Un dato positivo para aquellos que pagan una hipoteca. Por otro lado, un euro fuerte supone una pérdida de competitividad para las compañías exportadoras. De hecho, en Alemania y Francia algunas empresas ya han hecho notar su malestar por ello.</p> <p>Nueva York, más cerca. No hace tanto tiempo, los españoles iban a Andorra atraídos por sus precios más baratos y regresaban cargados de azúcar y queso. Y ahora, gracias a la fortaleza del euro, los españoles desembarcan como marajás en la primera potencia del mundo, EE UU, que recibe a los europeos con sus mejores galas.</p> <p>El pasado martes, el alcalde de Nueva York, Michael Bloomberg, inauguró una campaña publicitaria para atraer a turistas que se realizará en diez países, entre ellos España. Nueva York se gastará unos 42 millones de euros para atraer a 50 millones de turistas en 2015. El año pasado, unos 43,8 millones de personas visitaron la ciudad.</p> <p>Otra muestra del interés americano por el viajero español es la apertura a principios de año de una oficina turística de Nueva York en Madrid. 'Hace poco que hemos abierto pero ya hemos recibido muchas visitas', dice Abigail Sigüenza, responsable de la oficina. España es el noveno país que más turistas aporta y ha crecido un 24,8% en 2006 respecto al año anterior.</p> <p>Lo que con la peseta era imposible, hoy, con el euro, es una realidad: comprar en la gran manzana a mejor precio que en la Gran Vía madrileña o en la plaza del pueblo. Desde pasar la noche en un hotel de lujo, comprar ropa o tecnología, sale más barato ahora que hace un año. Desde el primero de enero, el euro se ha apreciado un 7,3% respecto al dólar.</p> <p>Algunas compañías, como Apple, impiden que los europeos compren vía web sus productos en dólares para evitar que les salga más barato que en las tiendas europeas. Afortunadamente, siempre quedarán páginas web como Amazón o Ebay para aprovechar la fortaleza del euro.</p> <b>2. Selección a la hora de invertir. Sufren los exportadores, pero el Ibex puede respirar tranquilo</b> <p>Latinoamérica suma. El crecimiento de las empresas españolas en los últimos años se debe en buena medida a su expansión internacional. El escenario de desaceleración al que se enfrenta la economía preocupa y los expertos, de hecho, encuentran que la exposición exterior de las empresas españolas es más una ventaja que una debilidad en el momento actual.</p> <p>En la primera mitad del año el 52,45% de los ingresos se generaron en España, el 19% en la Unión Europea y el 21,6% en Asia y Latinoamérica, mientras que el área dólar representó menos del 7% de los ingresos. Por tanto, los analistas restan preocupación a la debilidad reciente del dólar frente al euro, en un momento en el que las divisas latinoamericanas están aprovechando la fortaleza de la región. 'Brasil y México tienen unas perspectivas excelentes y son los países donde hay una mayor exposición de empresas españolas. Nos gustan mucho las que tienen ingresos fuera', explica Esteban Gridilla, responsable del departamento de gestión de carteras de LLoyds TSB. Y es que el aumento de actividad puede ver compensada la fortaleza del euro.</p> <p>Últimamente, además, priman una y otra vez las apuestas a favor de empresas grandes frente a pequeñas. Por tanto, Telefónica, Santander, BBVA pese a su exposición exterior, están entre las preferidas de muchos expertos. Aunque, eso sí, la banca aún genera algo de recelo y es más una apuesta a largo plazo.</p> <p>Ideas sectoriales. Un euro fuerte reduce la competitividad de las exportadoras europeas. Una caída del 10% del dólar merma el beneficio antes de impuestos (Ebit) de las empresas no financieras alrededor de un 5% y en un 1,5% el de las financieras, según cálculos de Deutsche Bank. Los expertos, sin embargo, consideran que el impacto para aquellas con una mayor exposición al exterior será limitado.</p> <p>'Hay que tener en cuenta que muchas utilizan sistemas de cobertura y cuando esto ocurre el impacto de una subida del dólar del 10% reduce la caída del Ebit del 5% al 1,4%. Otras empresas optan por cambiar proveedores o producen fuera para mitigar los efectos cambiarios', explica Miguel Ángel García, director de inversiones de Deutsche Bank.</p> <p>La complejidad de computar tantas variables lleva a algunos expertos a aconsejar evitar a los representantes del sector de salud, químicas, petróleo y gas, tecnología, industria y automoción en Europa, sectores con una mayor dependencia de ingresos en dólares. Por poner nombres Daimlerchysler, CRH, Synthes, Fresenius, Essilor, Atlas Copco, Securitas, Swiss Re, Ahold, Elan, Bae Systems, Astrazeneca, UCB, Shire, Dassault Systemes, Hunting, ICI, Thomson, GlaxoSmithKline, Sage o Yell son algunas empresas con más del 40% de ventas en dólares, según Citigroup. Los sectores menos expuestos al dólar, por contra, engloban a representantes del sector eléctrico, servicios financieros, distribución, telecomunicaciones y viajes y ocio.</p> <b>3. Cuenta en libras, deuda en yenes. La eventual caída del euro haría atractivas otras divisas</b> <p>Depósitos. El avance imparable del euro, que renueva máximos históricos al ritmo de los zarpazos de la crisis hipotecaria de EE UU, no será eterno. Y para aquellos inversores sin miedo a la volatilidad inherente al mercado de divisas, la contratación de un depósito en una moneda distinta al euro puede ser una buena oportunidad. Para empezar, los tipos estadounidenses, aun habiendo caído al 4,75%, son superiores al 4% del euro. Y este diferencial es aún más favorable respecto a la libra, con los tipos al 5,75%, si bien el mercado comienza a descontar un recorte.</p> <p>'Ahorraría mejor en libras, que es menos volátil que el dólar y afronta menos riesgo de bajada de tipos', señala David Cano, de Analistas Financieros Internacionales (AFI).</p> <p>Pero la libra se ha depreciado en el año casi el 4% frente al euro, lo que perjudica a aquellos que hayan contratado hace meses un depósito en la divisa británica. La oportunidad para el inversor está en que cambien las tornas y el euro se debilite. Así, la perspectiva de que el dólar recupere terreno puede hacer más apetecible la contratación de un depósito en el billete verde. 'Está tremendamente barato y su precio no es sostenible en un plazo de tres a seis meses', añade Cano.</p> <p>Citibank, Bankinter y Barclays son algunas de las entidades con depósitos en divisas, aunque el sector bancario reconoce que la guerra del pasivo está en los depósitos en euros, del agrado de todos los públicos y ajenos a las oscilaciones de las divisas.</p> <p>Hipotecas. La contratación de hipotecas en divisas es un fenómeno minoritario en el mercado español pero que ha dejado grandes alegrías a quienes asumieron su deuda en el yen japonés. Según explica Francisco Isidro, director de negocio internacional de Bankinter, 'la oportunidad no está tanto en el tipo de cambio de la divisa como en el tipo de interés'. Y en Japón están en el 0,5%. El lado más amargo de esta apuesta está en la extrema volatilidad de esta divisa, víctima de lo que se conoce como carry trade, mecanismo por el que los inversores más especuladores se endeudan en yenes, a menor interés. Con el estallido de la crisis financiera de este verano, esos inversores deshicieron posiciones de riesgo, provocando la apreciación del yen. 'Quien suscribió una hipoteca en yenes en 2005 o 2006 ha ganado dinero, al contrario que quien lo hizo en mayo de este año', explica Isidro, que recuerda que una hipoteca en multidivisas debe contratarse con miras a largo plazo.</p> <p>Además, estas hipotecas permiten mudar de divisa cada mes, por lo que 'conviene no ponerse nerviosos', insisten en Bankinter, donde reconocen en cualquier caso que muchos clientes han resguardado últimamente su hipoteca de la extrema volatilidad, cambiando a euros.</p><br /><br /><div class="shadow"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Artículos relacionados:</span><br /><a href="http://www.rankia.com/blog/fernan2/2006/11/hipotecas-multidivisa-en-yenes.html" title="Hipotecas multidivisa en yenes">Hipotecas multidivisa en yenes</a><br /><a href="http://www.mejores-opiniones.es/hipotecas/hipoteca-multidivisa-yenes/" title="Hipotecas multidivisas, hipoteca en yenes">Hipotecas multidivisas, hipoteca en yenes</a></div>Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-613774982584425942.post-29686090560047997852007-10-07T21:02:00.000+02:002007-10-07T21:23:02.485+02:00Esperando la V de la viviendaQue el ladrillo ha dejado de ser la piedra filosofal de la economía española es algo que lleva muchos meses sobre la mesa. Es un proceso que empezó sin que se notase demasiado, que encontró en Astroc el símbolo mediático perfecto y que se ha visto reforzado, euribor mediante, por la crisis hipotecaria en Estados Unidos. La fiesta está terminando, para lo bueno porque cuanto antes se frenen los procesos de inflación de activos, mejor, y para lo malo porque este freno va a enfriar de forma sensible la economía española. Pero no se puede vivir eterna y exclusivamente de juntar ladrillo y cemento, y sólo queda por ver cómo se pone en marcha el ajuste.<br /><br />Hay dos grandes alternativas, la U y la V. La U es una caída más larga pero menos violenta y la V es todo lo contrario, un descenso violento en los precios. En el primer escenario los niveles de precios se mantendrían más estables, puesto que el ajuste estaría centrado en la actividad. A lo largo de varios años los precios se mantendrían estables, porque si nadie vende, el precio no baja. Se construirían menos viviendas y la demanda absorbería las existencias acumuladas durante unos años.<br /><br />Una alternativa engañosamente positiva, en la medida en que los propietarios de vivienda no tienen la sensación de pérdida de patrimonio pero la economía en general sufre por el parón prolongado en construcción -actividad intensiva en empleo- y porque, además, no se purga una industria a todas luces sobredimensionada, donde la especulación y el dinero fácil han dado lugar a ciertas prácticas dudosas.<br /><br />La segunda opción es la V. Un descenso fuerte en los precios que dé salida al stock de viviendas, pues en España hay una alta demanda de viviendas que permanece latente por los altos precios. Una caída de éstos implicaría un menor descenso de actividad o, al menos, una recuperación más rápida del pulso constructor, pues el menor precio no se trasladaría a los costes de producción, sino en su mayoría al suelo.<br /><br />Una crisis en forma de V es poco habitual en España, pues más que invertir en casas, se tiende más a la acumulación pura y dura. Pero el mercado, en cierto sentido, se ha modernizado y flexibilizado en la última década, luego no es descartable que una caída más repentina, un proceso de destrucción creativa que sentaría mejores bases para el futuro del sector.<br /><br /><div class="shadow"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Artículos relacionados:</span><br /><a href="http://www.rankia.com/blog/fernan2/2006/11/hipotecas-multidivisa-en-yenes.html" title="Hipotecas multidivisa en yenes"></a><a href="http://www.rankia.com/blog/fernan2/2007/08/crdito-subprime-en-espana-hipotecas.html" title="Crédito subprime en España: Hipotecas subprime, no, pero...">Crédito subprime en España: Hipotecas subprime, no, pero...</a><br /><a href="http://www.rankia.com/blog/fernan2/2007/09/hipotecas-subprime-y-crisis-subprime.html" title="Hipotecas subprime y crisis subprime">Hipotecas subprime y crisis subprime</a><br /><a href="http://www.rankia.com/blog/fernan2/2007/09/titulizacion-hipotecas-crisis-subprime.html" title="Titulizacion de hipotecas y crisis subprime">Titulizacion de hipotecas y crisis subprime</a><br /><a href="http://www.rankia.com/blog/fernan2/2007/09/titulizacion-de-hipotecas-y-crisis.html" title="Titulizacion de hipotecas y crisis subprime - respuestas">Titulizacion de hipotecas y crisis subprime - respuestas</a><br /><a href="http://www.rankia.com/blog/fernan2/2007/06/la-burbuja-inmobiliaria-se-pone-fea.html" title="La burbuja inmobiliaria se pone fea">La burbuja inmobiliaria se pone fea</a></div>Fernan2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12289125210918078097noreply@blogger.com0