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12 noviembre 2008

ING reports underlying net loss of EUR 585 million in 3Q

ING reports underlying net loss of EUR 585 million in 3Q

  • Underlying net loss of EUR 585 million driven by crisis in the financial markets
    • Pre-tax impairments on equities, pressurised assets and other debt securities totalling EUR 1,505 million
    • Negative revaluations through P&L on real estate and private equity totalling EUR 333 million
    • Negative impact of other market-related items of EUR 265 million through P&L
    • Net loss of EUR 478 million in line with preliminary results announced on 17 October
    • Net loss per share of EUR 0.22, compared to net profit per share of EUR 1.08 in third quarter of 2007
    • Net profit of EUR 2,982 million year-to-date, versus EUR 6,759 million for the first nine months of 2007
  • Sound commercial performance despite difficult operating environment
    • Net production of client balances up EUR 38 billion, excluding impact of currencies, to EUR 1,528 billion
    • Retail deposits grew EUR 6.7 billion and total Bank deposits grew by EUR 12.9 billion excluding FX impact
    • Insurance new sales down 8.5% on a constant currency basis
  • Capital buffers reinforced following transaction with Dutch State
    • All capital ratios within target during the third quarter, prior to transaction with Dutch State
    • EUR 10 billion purchase of core tier-1 securities by Dutch State to be completed on 12 November 2008
    • Pro-forma ING Bank Tier-1 ratio will increase to 10%; Pro-forma Core Tier-1 ratio will increase to 8%
    • Pro-forma ING Group Debt/Equity ratio will improve to under 10%
    • Final 2008 dividend suspended leaving total 2008 dividend at EUR 0.74 per share paid in August
Chairman's Statement
"The third quarter was extremely challenging for financial institutions. Financial markets deteriorated rapidly toward the end of the quarter, with steep declines in equity markets, widening credit spreads, declining property prices and the failure of several banks. Against this background, ING reported its first ever quarterly loss, following EUR 1.5 billion of impairments and losses. That brought our underlying net profit for the first nine months of the year to EUR 2.9 billion," said Michel Tilmant, CEO of ING.
"In these increasingly turbulent times, ING acted proactively to reinforce its capital base after the Dutch government made funds available to help stabilise the financial system and create a level playing field. The financial services industry is about trust, and as our customers face uncertain times it is essential that they have no reason to be concerned about the strength of ING as their financial partner. The EUR 10 billion capital injection from the Dutch State helped to reassure our customers who entrust their savings and investments to ING. In addition, the sale of our Taiwan life business will significantly reduce our exposure to long-term interest rates, reducing risks within the company. Following these transactions, our capital position is stronger and we have capacity to absorb the impact of a further deterioration in financial markets."
"ING's commercial performance was resilient, even in this challenging and highly competitive environment. Net production of client balances, excluding the impact of currencies, was EUR 38 billion in the third quarter, driven by savings and deposits growth of EUR 12.9 billion and lending growth of EUR 22.9 billion. New life sales declined 8.5% excluding currency impacts amid reduced demand for investment products. However, ING's broad product expertise enabled us to respond to customers' changing needs."
"As we approach the end of 2008, markets continue to be turbulent, so we expect pressure on asset prices to continue to impact results in the fourth quarter, while weakening economic conditions will put pressure on results into 2009. Our priority is to sustain commercial momentum by remaining focused on our customers, while managing our risks, capital and expense base with the discipline that these exceptional times require."
The full report including tables can be downloaded from the following link:
The following documents can be downloaded from around 08.00 am CET from the following links:

31 octubre 2008

Chesapeake Energy Corporation Reports Financial and Operational Results for the 2008 Third Quarter

Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE:CHK) today announced financial and operating results for the 2008 third quarter. For the quarter, Chesapeake reported net income to common shareholders of $3.282 billion ($5.61 per fully diluted common share), operating cash flow of $1.400 billion (defined as cash flow from operating activities before changes in assets and liabilities) and ebitda of $5.963 billion (defined as net income (loss) before income taxes, interest expense, and depreciation, depletion and amortization expense) on revenue of $7.491 billion and production of 214 billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent (bcfe). The results above include the following items that are typically not included in published estimates of the company's financial results by certain securities analysts:

-- an unrealized noncash after-tax mark-to-market (MTM) gain of $2.846 billion from future period natural gas, oil and interest rate hedges primarily resulting from lower natural gas and oil prices as of September 30, 2008 compared to June 30, 2008;

-- an after-tax loss of $19.0 million on the early redemption of the company's $300 million 7.75% Senior Notes due 2015;

-- an after-tax consent fee of $6.3 million paid to amend certain provisions contained in five of the company's senior note indentures; and

-- a reduction of net income available to common shareholders of $24.5 million resulting from exchanges of the company's preferred stock for common stock that reduced future preferred stock dividend payment requirements.

Including the items noted above, Chesapeake reported adjusted net income to common shareholders during the quarter of $486 million ($0.85 per fully diluted common share) and adjusted ebitda of $1.386 billion, increases of 47% and 16%, respectively, over the 2007 third quarter. A reconciliation of operating cash flow, ebitda, adjusted ebitda and adjusted net income to comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles is presented on pages 14 - 17 of this release. Key Operational and Financial Statistics Summarized

The table below summarizes Chesapeake's key results during the 2008 third quarter and compares them to results during the 2008 second quarter and the 2007 third quarter.

Three Months Ended:
-----------------------
9/30/08 6/30/08 9/30/07
------- ------- -------
Average daily production (in mmcfe) 2,321 2,328 2,026
Natural gas as % of total production 92 92 91
Natural gas production (in bcf) 196.7 195.0 170.3
Average realized natural gas price ($/mcf) (a) 8.02 8.18 7.41
Oil production (in mbbls) 2,810 2,816 2,680
Average realized oil price ($/bbl) (a) 75.74 76.96 69.25
Natural gas equivalent production (in bcfe) 213.5 211.9 186.4
Natural gas equivalent realized price ($/mcfe)
(a) 8.38 8.55 7.76
Natural gas and oil marketing income ($/mcfe) .11 .12 .10
Service operations income ($/mcfe) .04 .04 .06
Production expenses ($/mcfe) (1.12) (1.03) (.89)
Production taxes ($/mcfe) (.41) (.41) (.30)
General and administrative costs ($/mcfe) (b) (.38) (.38) (.23)
Stock-based compensation ($/mcfe) (.12) (.10) (.10)
DD&A of natural gas and oil properties
($/mcfe) (2.25) (2.47) (2.57)
D&A of other assets ($/mcfe) (.23) (.19) (.24)
Interest expense ($/mcfe) (a) (.26) (.36) (.52)
Operating cash flow ($ in millions) (c) 1,400 1,443 1,085
Operating cash flow ($/mcfe) 6.56 6.81 5.82
Adjusted ebitda ($ in millions) (d) 1,386 1,435 1,195
Adjusted ebitda ($/mcfe) 6.49 6.77 6.41
Net income (loss) to common shareholders ($ in
millions) 3,282 (1,649) 346
Earnings (loss) per share - assuming dilution
($) 5.61 (3.17) .72
Adjusted net income to common shareholders
($ in millions) (e) 486 479 330
Adjusted earnings per share - assuming
dilution ($) .85 .89 .69

(a) includes the effects of realized gains or (losses) from hedging, but does not include the effects of unrealized gains or (losses) from hedging

(b) excludes expenses associated with noncash stock-based compensation

(c) defined as cash flow provided by operating activities before changes in assets and liabilities

(d) defined as net income (loss) before income taxes, interest expense, and depreciation, depletion and amortization expense, as adjusted to remove the effects of certain items detailed on page 16

(e) defined as net income (loss) available to common shareholders, as adjusted to remove the effects of certain items detailed on page 16

2008 Third Quarter Average Daily Production Increases 15% over 2007 Third Quarter Production

Daily production for the 2008 third quarter averaged 2.321 bcfe, a decrease of 7 mmcfe, or 0.3%, over the 2.328 bcfe produced per day in the 2008 second quarter and an increase of 295 mmcfe, or 15%, over the 2.026 bcfe produced per day in the 2007 third quarter. Adjusted for the company's year-end 2007, second quarter 2008 and third quarter 2008 VPP sales of 55, 47 and 47 mmcfe per day, respectively, and the company's sale of Woodford Shale and Fayetteville Shale properties of 47 and 45 mmcfe per day, respectively, Chesapeake's sequential and year-over-year production growth rates were 3% and 23%, respectively. In addition, during the quarter hurricane-related production curtailments totaled approximately 1.6 bcfe while voluntary production cutbacks due to low wellhead natural gas prices totaled approximately 0.6 bcfe.

Chesapeake's average daily production for the 2008 third quarter consisted of 2.138 billion cubic feet of natural gas (bcf) and 30,543 barrels of oil and natural gas liquids (bbls). The company's 2008 third quarter production of 213.5 bcfe was comprised of 196.7 bcf (92% on a natural gas equivalent basis) and 2.81 million barrels of oil and natural gas liquids (mmbbls) (8% on a natural gas equivalent basis).

Natural Gas and Oil Proved Reserves Reach 12.1 Tcfe on 1.2 Tcfe of Net Additions; During the First Three Quarters of 2008, Company Delivers a Reserve Replacement Rate of 290% and a Drilling and Net Acquisition Cost of $1.35 per Mcfe

Chesapeake began 2008 with estimated proved reserves of 10.879 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent (tcfe) and ended the third quarter with 12.075 tcfe, an increase of 1.196 tcfe, or 11%. During the first three quarters of 2008, Chesapeake replaced 630 bcfe of production with an estimated 1.826 tcfe of new proved reserves for a reserve replacement rate of 290%. Reserve replacement through the drillbit was 2.286 tcfe, or 363% of production. This includes 1,128 bcfe of positive performance revisions (including 987 bcfe related to infill drilling and increased density locations) and 13 bcfe of positive revisions resulting from natural gas and oil price increases between December 31, 2007 and September 30, 2008. Acquisitions of proved reserves completed during the first three quarters of 2008 were 165 bcfe at a cost of $357 million, or $2.16 per mcfe, while sales of proved reserves during the first three quarters of 2008 totaled 638 bcfe for proceeds of $2.335 billion, or $3.66 per mcfe. Sales of undeveloped leasehold during the first three quarters of 2008 generated proceeds of $3.6 billion compared to a cost basis of approximately $750 million for the leasehold sold.

Chesapeake's total drilling and net acquisition costs for the first three quarters of 2008 were $1.35 per mcfe. This calculation excludes costs of $3.3 billion for the acquisition of unproved properties and leasehold (net of sales), $289 million for capitalized interest on unproved properties, $234 million for seismic, and $19 million relating to tax basis step-up and asset retirement obligations, as well as positive revisions of proved reserves from higher natural gas and oil prices. Excluding these items and acquisition and divestiture activity, Chesapeake's exploration and development costs through the drillbit during the first three quarters of 2008 were $1.94 per mcfe. A complete reconciliation of finding and acquisition costs and a roll-forward of proved reserves are presented on page 12 of this release.

During the first three quarters of 2008, Chesapeake continued the industry's most active drilling program and drilled 1,435 gross operated wells (1,193 net with an average working interest of 83.1%) and participated in another 1,439 gross wells operated by other companies (195 net with an average working interest of 13.6%). The company's drilling success rate was 99% for company-operated wells and 97% for non-operated wells. Also during the first three quarters of 2008, Chesapeake invested $3.852 billion in operated wells (using an average of 148 operated rigs) and $576 million in non-operated wells (using an average of 118 non-operated rigs) for total drilling, completing and equipping costs of $4.428 billion.

As of September 30, 2008, Chesapeake's estimated future net cash flows from proved reserves, discounted at an annual rate of 10% before income taxes (PV-10), were $24.4 billion using field differential adjusted prices of $6.48 per thousand cubic feet of natural gas (mcf) (based on a NYMEX quarter-end price of $7.12 per mcf) and $96.66 per bbl (based on a NYMEX quarter-end price of $100.66 per bbl). Chesapeake's PV-10 changes by approximately $420 million for every $0.10 per mcf change in natural gas prices and approximately $60 million for every $1.00 per bbl change in oil prices. Chesapeake's enterprise value (market equity value plus long-term debt less working capital excluding current portion of derivative assets and liabilities) as of October 29, 2008 was approximately $27 billion.

By comparison, the December 31, 2007 PV-10 of the company's proved reserves was $20.6 billion ($15.0 billion applying the SFAS 69 standardized measure) using field differential adjusted prices of $6.19 per mcf (based on a NYMEX year-end price of $6.80 per mcf) and $90.58 per bbl (based on a NYMEX year-end price of $96.00 per bbl). The September 30, 2007 PV-10 of the company's proved reserves was $19.4 billion using field differential adjusted prices of $5.85 per mcf (based on a NYMEX quarter-end price of $6.38 per mcf) and $76.76 per bbl (based on a NYMEX quarter-end price of $81.56 per bbl).

The company calculates the standardized measure of future net cash flows in accordance with SFAS 69 only at year end because applicable income tax information on properties, including recently acquired natural gas and oil interests, is not readily available at other times during the year. As a result, the company is not able to reconcile the interim period-end values to the standardized measure at such dates. The only difference between the two measures is that PV-10 is calculated before considering the impact of future income tax expenses, while the standardized measure includes such effects.

In addition to the PV-10 value of its proved reserves and the very significant value of its undeveloped leasehold, particularly in the Haynesville, Marcellus, Barnett and Fayetteville shale plays, the net book value of the company's other assets (including gathering systems, compressors, land and buildings, investments and other non-current assets) was $4.9 billion as of September 30, 2008, $3.1 billion as of December 31, 2007 and $2.9 billion as of September 30, 2007.

Average Realized Prices, Hedging Results and Hedging Positions Detailed

Average prices realized during the 2008 third quarter (including realized gains or losses from natural gas and oil derivatives, but excluding unrealized gains or losses on such derivatives) were $8.02 per mcf and $75.74 per bbl, for a realized natural gas equivalent price of $8.38 per mcfe. Realized gains and losses from natural gas and oil hedging activities during the 2008 third quarter generated a $0.71 loss per mcf and a $37.79 loss per bbl for a 2008 third quarter realized hedging loss of $246 million, or $1.15 per mcfe. Excluding hedging activity, Chesapeake's average realized pricing basis differentials to NYMEX during the 2008 third quarter were a negative $1.52 per mcf and a negative $4.46 per bbl.

By comparison, average prices realized during the 2007 third quarter (including realized gains or losses from natural gas and oil derivatives, but excluding unrealized gains or losses on such derivatives) were $7.41 per mcf and $69.25 per bbl, for a realized natural gas equivalent price of $7.76 per mcfe. Realized gains from natural gas and oil hedging activities during the 2007 third quarter generated a $1.70 gain per mcf and a $1.51 loss per bbl for a 2007 third quarter realized hedging gain of $286 million, or $1.53 per mcfe. Excluding hedging activity, Chesapeake's average realized pricing basis differentials to NYMEX during the 2007 third quarter were a negative $0.45 per mcf and a negative $4.62 per bbl.

The following tables summarize Chesapeake's open hedge position through swaps and collars as of October 30, 2008. Depending on changes in natural gas and oil futures markets and management's view of underlying natural gas and oil supply and demand trends, Chesapeake may either increase or decrease its hedging positions at any time in the future without notice.

Open Swap Positions as of October 30, 2008

Natural Gas Oil
----------------- -----------------
Quarter or Year % Hedged $ NYMEX % Hedged $ NYMEX
============================== ======== ======= ======== =======
2008 Q4 62% 9.15 43% 78.09
============================== ======== ======= ======== =======
2009 Total 38% 9.33 48% 81.19
============================== ======== ======= ======== =======
2010 Total 40% 9.58 37% 90.25
============================== ======== ======= ======== =======

Open Natural Gas Collar Positions as of October 30, 2008

Average Average
Floor Ceiling
Quarter or Year % Hedged $ NYMEX $ NYMEX
==================================== ========== ========= =========
2008 Q4 14% 7.75 9.32
==================================== ========== ========= =========
2009 Total 30% 7.21 9.27
==================================== ========== ========= =========
2010 Total 2% 7.71 11.46
==================================== ========== ========= =========

Certain open natural gas swap positions include knockout swaps with knockout provisions at $6.50 per mcf covering 9 bcf in the 2008 fourth quarter, and prices ranging from $5.65 to $7.25 per mcf covering 150 bcf in 2009 and $5.45 to $7.40 per mcf covering 321 bcf in 2010. Certain open natural gas collar positions include three-way collars that include written put options with strike prices ranging from $5.00 to $6.00 per mcf covering 105 bcf in 2009 and at $6.00 per mcf covering 4 bcf in 2010. Also, certain open oil swap positions include cap-swaps and knockout swaps with provisions limiting the counterparty's exposure below prices ranging from $45 to $60 per bbl covering 1 mmbbls in the 2008 fourth quarter, from $50 to $60 per bbl covering 6 mmbbls in 2009 and $60 per bbl covering 5 mmbbls in 2010. As of October 24, 2008, Chesapeake's natural gas and oil hedging positions with a diversified group of 19 different counterparties had a positive mark-to-market (MTM) value of approximately $1.0 billion.

The company's updated forecasts for 2008 through 2010 are attached to this release in an Outlook dated October 30, 2008, labeled as Schedule "A," which begins on page 18. This Outlook has been changed from the Outlook dated October 14, 2008 (attached as Schedule "B," which begins on page 23) to reflect various updated information.

Company Continues to Improve Balance Sheet and Liquidity

As a result of strong earnings growth and favorable changes in the MTM value of the company's open hedging positions during the 2008 third quarter, Chesapeake's net debt to book capitalization ratio decreased from 57% at June 30, 2008 to 43% at September 30, 2008. The company's goal is to end 2008 with cash and cash equivalents on hand or bank credit availability of approximately $3.0 billion and to generate at least $1.0 billion of excess cash in each of 2009 and 2010. The company's revolving credit facility matures in November 2012 and the first maturity of its senior unsecured notes is in July 2013.

Management Comments

Aubrey K. McClendon, Chesapeake's Chief Executive Officer, commented, "We are pleased to report our financial and operational results for the 2008 third quarter. During the quarter, we earned almost $3.3 billion, improved our balance sheet and liquidity and closed approximately $7.5 billion of asset monetization transactions. Those transactions included selling a VPP for approximately $600 million in cash, selling 20% of our Haynesville Shale properties for $3.3 billion in cash and drilling carries, selling 25% of our Fayetteville Shale properties for $1.9 billion in cash and drilling carries and selling 100% of our remaining Woodford Shale properties for $1.7 billion in cash. Furthermore we are progressing on additional asset monetizations for the 2008 fourth quarter and we look forward to disclosing the details of these transactions later this quarter.

"Although financial market volatility remains high, Chesapeake is very well-positioned to continue growing and creating value in the 2008 fourth quarter and in 2009 and 2010. Our commodity hedges, our Haynesville and Fayetteville Shale drilling cost carries, our progress in the Marcellus Shale and our balance sheet, which has $2.0 billion in cash on it and requires no debt payments for four years, should enable Chesapeake to prosper during these difficult economic times. I am very excited to see the company continue realizing its full potential through the ongoing execution of our successful strategy and the full development of our top-tier properties."

Conference Call Information

A conference call to discuss this release has been scheduled for Friday morning, October 31, 2008, at 9:00 a.m. EDT. The telephone number to access the conference call is 913-312-1437 or toll-free 888-240-9345. The passcode for the call is 7433119. We encourage those who would like to participate in the call to dial the access number between 8:50 and 9:00 a.m. EDT. For those unable to participate in the conference call, a replay will be available for audio playback from 2:00 p.m. EDT on October 31, 2008 through midnight EST on Friday, November 14, 2008. The number to access the conference call replay is 719-457-0820 or toll-free 888-203-1112. The passcode for the replay is 7433119. The conference call will also be webcast live on the Internet and can be accessed by going to Chesapeake's website at www.chk.com and selecting the "News & Events" section. The webcast of the conference call will be available on our website for one year.

This press release and the accompanying Outlooks include "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements give our current expectations or forecasts of future events. They include estimates of natural gas and oil reserves, expected natural gas and oil production and future expenses, assumptions regarding future natural gas and oil prices, planned capital expenditures for drilling, leasehold acquisitions and seismic data and planned asset sales, as well as statements concerning anticipated cash flow and liquidity, business strategy and other plans and objectives for future operations. Disclosures concerning the fair value of derivative contracts and their estimated contribution to our future results of operations are based upon market information as of a specific date. These market prices are subject to significant volatility. We caution you not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this press release, and we undertake no obligation to update this information.

Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expected results are described in "Risk Factors" in the Prospectus Supplement we filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on July 10, 2008. These risk factors include the volatility of natural gas and oil prices; the limitations our level of indebtedness may have on our financial flexibility; our ability to compete effectively against strong independent natural gas and oil companies and majors; the availability of capital on an economic basis, including planned asset monetization transactions, to fund reserve replacement costs; our ability to replace reserves and sustain production; uncertainties inherent in estimating quantities of natural gas and oil reserves and projecting future rates of production and the amount and timing of development expenditures; uncertainties in evaluating natural gas and oil reserves of acquired properties and associated potential liabilities; our ability to effectively consolidate and integrate acquired properties and operations; unsuccessful exploration and development drilling; declines in the values of our natural gas and oil properties resulting in ceiling test write-downs; lower prices realized on natural gas and oil sales and collateral required to secure hedging liabilities resulting from our commodity price risk management activities; the negative impact lower natural gas and oil prices could have on our ability to borrow; drilling and operating risks, including potential environmental liabilities; production interruptions that could adversely affect our cash flow; and pending or future litigation.

Our production forecasts are dependent upon many assumptions, including estimates of production decline rates from existing wells and the outcome of future drilling activity. Although we believe the expectations and forecasts reflected in these and other forward-looking statements are reasonable, we can give no assurance they will prove to have been correct. They can be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties.

Chesapeake Energy Corporation is the largest producer of natural gas in the U.S. Headquartered in Oklahoma City, the company's operations are focused on exploratory and developmental drilling and corporate and property acquisitions in the Fort Worth Barnett Shale, Haynesville Shale, Fayetteville Shale, Anadarko Basin, Arkoma Basin, Appalachian Basin, Permian Basin, Delaware Basin, South Texas, Texas Gulf Coast and Ark-La-Tex regions of the United States. Further information is available at www.chk.com.

CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
($ in millions, except per-share and unit data)
(unaudited)

September 30, September 30,

THREE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------
$ $/mcfe $ $/mcfe
-------- -------- -------- --------

REVENUES:
Natural gas and oil sales 6,408 30.01 1,492 8.00
Natural gas and oil marketing
sales 1,038 4.86 501 2.69
Service operations revenue 45 0.21 34 0.18
-------- -------- -------- --------
Total Revenues 7,491 35.08 2,027 10.87
-------- -------- -------- --------

OPERATING COSTS:
Production expenses 239 1.12 165 0.89
Production taxes 87 0.41 56 0.30
General and administrative
expenses 108 0.50 62 0.33
Natural gas and oil marketing
expenses 1,014 4.75 483 2.59
Service operations expense 37 0.17 23 0.12
Natural gas and oil
depreciation, depletion and
amortization 480 2.25 479 2.57
Depreciation and amortization
of other assets 48 0.23 44 0.24
-------- -------- -------- --------
Total Operating Costs 2,013 9.43 1,312 7.04
-------- -------- -------- --------

INCOME FROM OPERATIONS 5,478 25.65 715 3.83
-------- -------- -------- --------

OTHER INCOME (EXPENSE):
Interest and other income (2) (0.01) 1 0.01
Interest expense (48) (0.22) (116) (0.62)
Loss on repurchase of
Chesapeake debt (31) (0.14) -- --
Consent solicitation fees (10) (0.05) -- --
-------- -------- -------- --------
Total Other Income
(Expense) (91) (0.42) (115) (0.61)
-------- -------- -------- --------

INCOME BEFORE INCOME TAXES 5,387 25.23 600 3.22

Income Tax Expense:
Current 193 0.90 9 0.05
Deferred 1,881 8.81 219 1.17
-------- -------- -------- --------
Total Income Tax Expense 2,074 9.71 228 1.22
-------- -------- -------- --------

NET INCOME 3,313 15.52 372 2.00
-------- -------- -------- --------

Preferred stock dividends (6) (0.03) (26) (0.14)
Loss on conversion/exchange of
preferred stock (25) (0.12) -- --
-------- -------- -------- --------

NET INCOME AVAILABLE TO COMMON
SHAREHOLDERS 3,282 15.37 346 1.86
======== ======== ======== ========

EARNINGS PER COMMON SHARE:

Basic $ 5.93 $ 0.76
======== ========
Assuming dilution $ 5.61 $ 0.72
======== ========

WEIGHTED AVERAGE COMMON AND
COMMON EQUIVALENT SHARES
OUTSTANDING (in millions)

Basic 554 454
======== ========
Assuming dilution 588 517
======== ========

CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
($ in millions, except per-share and unit data)
(unaudited)

September 30, September 30,

NINE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------
$ $/mcfe $ $/mcfe
-------- -------- -------- --------

REVENUES:
Natural gas and oil sales 5,587 8.87 4,164 8.16
Natural gas and oil marketing
sales 2,934 4.66 1,446 2.84
Service operations revenue 127 0.20 101 0.20
-------- -------- -------- --------
Total Revenues 8,648 13.73 5,711 11.20
-------- -------- -------- --------

OPERATING COSTS:
Production expenses 658 1.04 461 0.90
Production taxes 250 0.40 151 0.30
General and administrative
expenses 288 0.46 168 0.33
Natural gas and oil marketing
expenses 2,864 4.55 1,394 2.73
Service operations expense 104 0.16 67 0.13
Natural gas and oil
depreciation, depletion and
amortization 1,518 2.41 1,314 2.58
Depreciation and amortization
of other assets 125 0.20 120 0.24
-------- -------- -------- --------
Total Operating Costs 5,807 9.22 3,675 7.21
-------- -------- -------- --------

INCOME FROM OPERATIONS 2,841 4.51 2,036 3.99
-------- -------- -------- --------

OTHER INCOME (EXPENSE):
Interest and other income (13) (0.02) 12 0.02
Interest expense (212) (0.33) (279) (0.54)
Gain on sale of investment -- -- 83 0.16
Loss on repurchase of
Chesapeake debt (31) (0.05) -- --
Consent solicitation fees (10) (0.02) -- --
-------- -------- -------- --------
Total Other Income
(Expense) (266) (0.42) (184) (0.36)
-------- -------- -------- --------

INCOME BEFORE INCOME TAXES 2,575 4.09 1,852 3.63

Income Tax Expense:
Current 196 0.31 19 0.04
Deferred 795 1.26 685 1.34
-------- -------- -------- --------
Total Income Tax Expense 991 1.57 704 1.38
-------- -------- -------- --------

NET INCOME 1,584 2.52 1,148 2.25
-------- -------- -------- --------

Preferred stock dividends (27) (0.04) (77) (0.15)
Loss on conversion/exchange of
preferred stock (67) (0.11) -- --
-------- -------- -------- --------

NET INCOME AVAILABLE TO COMMON
SHAREHOLDERS 1,490 2.37 1,071 2.10
======== ======== ======== ========

EARNINGS PER COMMON SHARE:

Basic $ 2.85 $ 2.37
======== ========
Assuming dilution $ 2.73 $ 2.23
======== ========

WEIGHTED AVERAGE COMMON AND
COMMON EQUIVALENT SHARES
OUTSTANDING (in millions)

Basic 523 452
======== ========
Assuming dilution 557 516
======== ========

CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
($ in millions)
(unaudited)

September 30, December 31,
2008 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Cash $ 1,964 $ 1
Other current assets 2,147 1,395
------------- ------------
Total Current Assets 4,111 1,396
------------- ------------

Property and equipment (net) 34,845 28,337
Other assets 1,062 1,001
------------- ------------
Total Assets $ 40,018 $ 30,734
============= ============

Current liabilities $ 3,601 $ 2,760
Long-term debt, net 14,345 10,950
Asset retirement obligation 260 236
Other long-term liabilities 715 692
Deferred tax liability 4,690 3,966
------------- ------------
Total Liabilities 23,611 18,604

Stockholders' Equity 16,407 12,130
------------- ------------

Total Liabilities & Stockholders' Equity $ 40,018 $ 30,734
============= ============

Common Shares Outstanding (in millions) 581 511
============= ============

CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION
CAPITALIZATION
($ in millions)
(unaudited)


% of Total % of Total
September 30, Book June 30, Book
2008 Capitalization 2008 Capitalization
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Total debt, net
cash $ 12,381 43% $ 13,703 57%
Stockholders'
equity 16,407 57% 10,276 43%
------------- -------------- ---------- --------------
Total $ 28,788 100% $ 23,979 100%
============= ============== ========== ==============

% of Total
December 31, Book
2007 Capitalization
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Total debt, net cash $ 10,949 47%
Stockholders' equity 12,130 53%
-------------- ----------------
Total $ 23,079 100%
============== ================

CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION
RECONCILIATION OF 2008 ADDITIONS TO NATURAL GAS AND OIL PROPERTIES
($ in millions, except per-unit data)
(unaudited)

Reserves
Cost (in bcfe) $/mcfe
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Exploration and development costs $ 4,428 2,286(a) 1.94
Acquisition of proved properties 357 165 2.16
Sale of proved properties (2,335) (638) 3.66
--------- --------- --------
Drilling and net acquisition cost 2,450 1,813 1.35
--------- --------- --------

Revisions - price -- 13 --

Acquisition of unproved properties and
leasehold 6,931 -- --
Sale of unproved properties and leasehold (3,587) -- --
--------- --------- --------
Net leasehold and unproved
property acquisition 3,344 -- --
--------- --------- --------

Capitalized interest on leasehold and
unproved property 289 -- --
Geological and geophysical costs 234 -- --
--------- --------- --------
Geological, geophysical and
capitalized interest 523 -- --
--------- --------- --------

Subtotal 6,317 1,826 3.46
--------- --------- --------

Tax basis step-up 13 -- --
Asset retirement obligation and other 6 -- --
--------- --------- --------
Total $ 6,336 1,826 3.47
========= ========= --------

(a) Includes 1,128 bcfe of positive performance revisions (987 bcfe relating to infill drilling and increased density locations and 141 bcfe of other performance related revisions) and excludes positive revisions of 13 bcfe resulting from natural gas and oil price increases between December 31, 2007 and September 30, 2008.

CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION
ROLL-FORWARD OF PROVED RESERVES
NINE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2008
(unaudited)

Bcfe
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Beginning balance, 01/01/08 10,879
Production (630)
Acquisitions 165
Divestitures (638)
Revisions - performance 1,128
Revisions - price 13
Extensions and discoveries 1,158
-----------
Ending balance, 09/30/08 12,075
===========

Reserve replacement 1,826
Reserve replacement ratio (a) 290%

(a) The company uses the reserve replacement ratio as an indicator of the company's ability to replenish annual production volumes and grow its reserves. It should be noted that the reserve replacement ratio is a statistical indicator that has limitations. The ratio is limited because it typically varies widely based on the extent and timing of new discoveries and property acquisitions. Its predictive and comparative value is also limited for the same reasons. In addition, since the ratio does not embed the cost or timing of future production of new reserves, it cannot be used as a measure of value creation.

CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION
SUPPLEMENTAL DATA - NATURAL GAS AND OIL SALES AND INTEREST EXPENSE
(unaudited)

THREE MONTHS ENDED NINE MONTHS ENDED
September 30, September 30,
------------------- -------------------
2008 2007 2008 2007
--------- --------- --------- ---------
Natural Gas and Oil Sales ($
in millions):
Natural gas sales $ 1,717 $ 971 $ 5,046 $ 2,918
Natural gas derivatives -
realized gains (losses) (140) 290 (174) 890
Natural gas derivatives -
unrealized gains
(losses) 3,854 73 325 (58)
--------- --------- --------- ---------

Total Natural Gas
Sales 5,431 1,334 5,197 3,750
--------- --------- --------- ---------

Oil sales 319 190 915 443
Oil derivatives -
realized gains (losses) (106) (4) (280) 26
Oil derivatives -
unrealized gains
(losses) 764 (28) (245) (55)
--------- --------- --------- ---------

Total Oil Sales 977 158 390 414
--------- --------- --------- ---------

Total Natural Gas and
Oil Sales $ 6,408 $ 1,492 $ 5,587 $ 4,164
========= ========= ========= =========

Average Sales Price -
excluding gains (losses) on
derivatives:
Natural gas ($ per mcf) $ 8.73 $ 5.71 $ 8.71 $ 6.25
Oil ($ per bbl) $113.53 $ 70.76 $109.28 $ 61.91
Natural gas equivalent ($
per mcfe) $ 9.54 $ 6.23 $ 9.47 $ 6.59

Average Sales Price -
excluding unrealized gains
(losses) on derivatives:
Natural gas ($ per mcf) $ 8.02 $ 7.41 $ 8.41 $ 8.15
Oil ($ per bbl) $ 75.74 $ 69.25 $ 75.82 $ 65.55
Natural gas equivalent ($
per mcfe) $ 8.38 $ 7.76 $ 8.75 $ 8.39

Interest Expense ($ in
millions):
Interest $ 51 $ 98 $ 220 $ 266
Derivatives - realized
(gains) losses 5 (1) 1 --
Derivatives - unrealized
(gains) losses (8) 19 (9) 13
--------- --------- --------- ---------
Total Interest
Expense $ 48 $ 116 $ 212 279
========= ========= ========= =========

CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED CASH FLOW DATA
($ in millions)
(unaudited)

September 30, September 30,

THREE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Beginning cash $ 1 $ 4
Cash provided by operating activities 1,550 1,267
Cash (used in) investing activities (1,872) (2,485)
Cash provided by financing activities 2,285 1,216
Ending cash 1,964 2


======================================================================


September 30, September 30,

NINE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Beginning cash $ 1 $ 3
Cash provided by operating activities 4,305 3,389
Cash (used in) investing activities (8,201) (6,488)
Cash provided by financing activities 5,859 3,098
Ending cash 1,964 2


CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION
RECONCILIATION OF OPERATING CASH FLOW AND EBITDA
($ in millions)
(unaudited)

September 30, June 30, September 30,

THREE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2008 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------

CASH PROVIDED BY OPERATING
ACTIVITIES $ 1,550 $ 1,256 $ 1,267

Adjustments:
Changes in assets and
liabilities (150) 187 (182)
------------- ------------- -------------

OPERATING CASH FLOW(1) $ 1,400 $ 1,443 $ 1,085
============= ============= =============

(1) Operating cash flow represents net cash provided by operating activities before changes in assets and liabilities. Operating cash flow is presented because management believes it is a useful adjunct to net cash provided by operating activities under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States (GAAP). Operating cash flow is widely accepted as a financial indicator of a natural gas and oil company's ability to generate cash which is used to internally fund exploration and development activities and to service debt. This measure is widely used by investors and rating agencies in the valuation, comparison, rating and investment recommendations of companies within the natural gas and oil exploration and production industry. Operating cash flow is not a measure of financial performance under GAAP and should not be considered as an alternative to cash flows from operating, investing or financing activities as an indicator of cash flows, or as a measure of liquidity.

September 30, June 30, September 30,

THREE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2008 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------

NET INCOME (LOSS) $ 3,313 $ (1,597) $ 372

Income tax expense (benefit) 2,074 (1,000) 228
Interest expense 48 63 116
Depreciation and
amortization of other
assets 48 40 44
Natural gas and oil
depreciation, depletion and
amortization 480 523 479
------------- ------------- -------------

EBITDA(2) $ 5,963 $ (1,971) $ 1,239
============= ============= =============

(2) Ebitda represents net income (loss) before income tax expense, interest expense and depreciation, depletion and amortization expense. Ebitda is presented as a supplemental financial measurement in the evaluation of our business. We believe that it provides additional information regarding our ability to meet our future debt service, capital expenditures and working capital requirements. This measure is widely used by investors and rating agencies in the valuation, comparison, rating and investment recommendations of companies. Ebitda is also a financial measurement that, with certain negotiated adjustments, is reported to our lenders pursuant to our bank credit agreement and is used in the financial covenants in our bank credit agreement and our senior note indentures. Ebitda is not a measure of financial performance under GAAP. Accordingly, it should not be considered as a substitute for net income, income from operations, or cash flow provided by operating activities prepared in accordance with GAAP. Ebitda is reconciled to cash provided by operating activities as follows:

September 30, June 30, September 30,

THREE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2008 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------

CASH PROVIDED BY OPERATING
ACTIVITIES $ 1,550 $ 1,256 $ 1,267

Changes in assets and
liabilities (150) 187 (182)
Interest expense 48 63 116
Unrealized gains (losses) on
natural gas and oil
derivatives 4,618 (3,404) 45
Other non-cash items (103) (73) (7)
------------- ------------- -------------

EBITDA $ 5,963 $ (1,971) $ 1,239
============= ============= =============

CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION
RECONCILIATION OF OPERATING CASH FLOW AND EBITDA
($ in millions)
(unaudited)

September 30, September 30,

NINE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------

CASH PROVIDED BY OPERATING ACTIVITIES $ 4,305 $ 3,389

Adjustments:
Changes in assets and liabilities 49 (104)
------------- -------------

OPERATING CASH FLOW(1) $ 4,354 $ 3,285
============= =============

(1) Operating cash flow represents net cash provided by operating activities before changes in assets and liabilities. Operating cash flow is presented because management believes it is a useful adjunct to net cash provided by operating activities under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States (GAAP). Operating cash flow is widely accepted as a financial indicator of a natural gas and oil company's ability to generate cash which is used to internally fund exploration and development activities and to service debt. This measure is widely used by investors and rating agencies in the valuation, comparison, rating and investment recommendations of companies within the natural gas and oil exploration and production industry. Operating cash flow is not a measure of financial performance under GAAP and should not be considered as an alternative to cash flows from operating, investing or financing activities as an indicator of cash flows, or as a measure of liquidity.

September 30, September 30,

NINE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------

NET INCOME $ 1,584 $ 1,148

Income tax expense (benefit) 991 704
Interest expense 212 279
Depreciation and amortization of other
assets 125 120
Natural gas and oil depreciation,
depletion and amortization 1,518 1,314
------------- -------------

EBITDA(2) $ 4,430 $ 3,565
============= =============

(2) Ebitda represents net income (loss) before income tax expense, interest expense and depreciation, depletion and amortization expense. Ebitda is presented as a supplemental financial measurement in the evaluation of our business. We believe that it provides additional information regarding our ability to meet our future debt service, capital expenditures and working capital requirements. This measure is widely used by investors and rating agencies in the valuation, comparison, rating and investment recommendations of companies. Ebitda is also a financial measurement that, with certain negotiated adjustments, is reported to our lenders pursuant to our bank credit agreement and is used in the financial covenants in our bank credit agreement and our senior note indentures. Ebitda is not a measure of financial performance under GAAP. Accordingly, it should not be considered as a substitute for net income, income from operations, or cash flow provided by operating activities prepared in accordance with GAAP. Ebitda is reconciled to cash provided by operating activities as follows:

September 30, September 30,

NINE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------

CASH PROVIDED BY OPERATING ACTIVITIES $ 4,305 $ 3,389

Changes in assets and liabilities 49 (104)
Interest expense 212 279
Unrealized gains (losses) on natural gas
and oil derivatives 80 (113)
Other noncash items (216) 114
------------- -------------

EBITDA $ 4,430 $ 3,565
============= =============

CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION
RECONCILIATION OF ADJUSTED NET INCOME AVAILABLE TO COMMON SHAREHOLDERS
($ in millions, except per-share data)
(unaudited)

September 30, June 30, September 30,
THREE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2008 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Net income (loss) available
to common shareholders $ 3,282 $ (1,649) $ 346

Adjustments:
Unrealized (gains) losses
on derivatives, net of
tax (2,846) 2,085 (16)
Loss on repurchase of
Chesapeake debt, net of
tax 19 -- --
Consent fees on senior
notes, net of tax 6 -- --
Loss on
conversion/exchange of
preferred stock 25 43 --
------------- ------------- -------------

Adjusted net income
available to common
shareholders(1) 486 479 330
Preferred stock dividends 6 9 26
Interest on 2.75%
contingent convertible
notes, net of tax 3 3 --
Interest on 2.50%
contingent convertible
notes, net of tax 7 -- --
------------- ------------- -------------
Total adjusted net income $ 502 $ 491 $ 356
============= ============= =============

Weighted average fully
diluted shares
outstanding(2) 589 553 517

Adjusted earnings per share
assuming dilution(1) $ 0.85 $ 0.89 $ 0.69
============= ============= =============

(1) Adjusted net income available to common and adjusted earnings per share assuming dilution exclude certain items that management believes affect the comparability of operating results. The company discloses these non-GAAP financial measures as a useful adjunct to GAAP earnings because:

(a) Management uses adjusted net income available to common to evaluate the company's operational trends and performance relative to other natural gas and oil producing companies.

(b) Adjusted net income available to common is more comparable to earnings estimates provided by securities analysts.

(c) Items excluded generally are one-time items or items whose timing or amount cannot be reasonably estimated. Accordingly, any guidance provided by the company generally excludes information regarding these types of items.

(2) Weighted average fully diluted shares outstanding include shares that were considered antidilutive for calculating earnings per share in accordance with GAAP.

CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION
RECONCILIATION OF ADJUSTED EBITDA
($ in millions)
(unaudited)

September 30, June 30, September 30,
THREE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2008 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------

EBITDA $ 5,963 $ (1,971) $ 1,239

Adjustments, before tax:
Unrealized (gains) losses
on natural gas and oil
derivatives (4,618) 3,406 (45)
Loss on repurchase of
Chesapeake debt 31 -- --
Consent fees on senior
notes 10 -- --
------------- ------------- -------------

Adjusted ebitda(1) $ 1,386 $ 1,435 $ 1,194
============= ============= =============

(1) Adjusted ebitda excludes certain items that management believes affect the comparability of operating results. The company discloses these non-GAAP financial measures as a useful adjunct to ebitda because:

(a) Management uses adjusted ebitda to evaluate the company's operational trends and performance relative to other natural gas and oil producing companies.

(b) Adjusted ebitda is more comparable to estimates provided by securities analysts.

(c) Items excluded generally are one-time items or items whose timing or amount cannot be reasonably estimated. Accordingly, any guidance provided by the company generally excludes information regarding these types of items.

CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION
RECONCILIATION OF ADJUSTED NET INCOME AVAILABLE TO COMMON SHAREHOLDERS
($ in millions, except per-share data)
(unaudited)

September 30, September 30,
NINE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Net income available to common
shareholders $ 1,490 $ 1,071

Adjustments:
Unrealized (gains) losses on
derivatives, net of tax (55) 78
Gain on sale of investment, net of
cash -- (51)
Loss on repurchase of Chesapeake debt,
net of tax 19 --
Consent fees on senior notes, net of
tax 6 --
Loss on conversion/exchange of
preferred stock 67 --
------------- -------------

Adjusted net income available to common
shareholders(1) 1,527 1,098
Preferred stock dividends 27 77
Interest on 2.75% contingent
convertible notes, net of tax 5 --
Interest on 2.50% contingent
convertible notes, net of tax 7 --
------------- -------------

Total adjusted net income $ 1,566 $ 1,175
============= =============

Weighted average fully diluted shares
outstanding(2) 564 516

Adjusted earnings per share assuming
dilution(1) $ 2.78 $ 2.28
============= =============

(1) Adjusted net income available to common and adjusted earnings per share assuming dilution exclude certain items that management believes affect the comparability of operating results. The company discloses these non-GAAP financial measures as a useful adjunct to GAAP earnings because:

(a) Management uses adjusted net income available to common to evaluate the company's operational trends and performance relative to other natural gas and oil producing companies.

(b) Adjusted net income available to common is more comparable to earnings estimates provided by securities analysts.

(c) Items excluded generally are one-time items or items whose timing or amount cannot be reasonably estimated. Accordingly, any guidance provided by the company generally excludes information regarding these types of items.

(2) Weighted average fully diluted shares outstanding include shares that were considered antidilutive for calculating earnings per share in accordance with GAAP.

CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION
RECONCILIATION OF ADJUSTED EBITDA
($ in millions)
(unaudited)

September 30, September 30,
NINE MONTHS ENDED: 2008 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------

EBITDA $ 4,430 $ 3,565

Adjustments, before tax:
Unrealized (gains) losses on natural
gas and oil derivatives (80) 113
Gain on sale of investment -- (83)
Loss on repurchase of Chesapeake debt 31 --
Consent fees on senior notes 10 --
------------- -------------

Adjusted ebitda(1) $ 4,391 $ 3,595
============= =============

(1) Adjusted ebitda excludes certain items that management believes affect the comparability of operating results. The company discloses these non-GAAP financial measures as a useful adjunct to ebitda because:

(a) Management uses adjusted ebitda to evaluate the company's operational trends and performance relative to other natural gas and oil producing companies.

(b) Adjusted ebitda is more comparable to estimates provided by securities analysts.

(c) Items excluded generally are one-time items or items whose timing or amount cannot be reasonably estimated. Accordingly, any guidance provided by the company generally excludes information regarding these types of items.

SCHEDULE "A"

CHESAPEAKE'S OUTLOOK AS OF OCTOBER 30, 2008

Quarter Ending December 31, 2008 and Years Ending December 31, 2009 and 2010.

We have adopted a policy of periodically providing guidance on certain factors that affect our future financial performance. As of October 30, 2008, we are using the following key assumptions in our projections for the fourth quarter of 2008 and the full years 2009 and 2010.

The primary changes from our October 14, 2008 Outlook are in italicized bold and are explained as follows:

1) Natural gas production assumption for the quarter ending 12/31/08 has been reduced to reflect anticipated voluntary curtailments due to low wellhead price realizations;

2) Projected effects of changes in our hedging positions have been updated;

3) Our NYMEX natural gas and oil price assumptions for realized hedging effects and estimating future operating cash flow have been reduced for the quarter ending 12/31/08; and

4) Certain cost and cash income tax assumptions have been updated.

Quarter Ending Year Ending Year Ending
12/31/2008 12/31/2009 12/31/2010
-------------- ------------ -------------
Estimated Production(a)
Natural gas - bcf 188 - 192 893 - 913 1,032 - 1,072
Oil - mbbls 2,825 12,000 13,000
Natural gas equivalent -
bcfe 205 - 209 965 - 985 1,110 -1,150

Daily natural gas equivalent
midpoint - mmcfe 2,250 2,670 3,095

Year-over-year production
increase 1.4% 16.8% 15.9%

NYMEX Prices (b) (for calculation of realized hedging effects only):
Natural gas - $/mcf $7.00 $8.00 $8.00
Oil - $/bbl $60.00 $80.00 $80.00
Estimated Realized Hedging Effects (based on assumed NYMEX prices
above):
Natural gas - $/mcf $1.96 $0.70 $0.82
Oil - $/bbl $5.48 $1.32 $4.79
Estimated Differentials to
NYMEX Prices:
Natural gas - $/mcf 10 - 14% 10 - 14% 10 - 14%
Oil - $/bbl 5 - 7% 5 - 7% 5 - 7%
Operating Costs per Mcfe of Projected Production:
Production expense $1.00 - 1.15 $1.10 - 1.20 $1.15 - 1.25
Production taxes (about
5% of O&G revenues) (c) $0.30 - 0.35 $0.35 - 0.40 $0.35 - 0.40
General and
administrative(d) $0.33 - 0.37 $0.33 - 0.37 $0.33 - 0.37
Stock-based compensation
(non-cash) $0.10 - 0.13 $0.10 - 0.12 $0.10 - 0.12
DD&A of natural gas and
oil assets $2.25 - 2.30 $2.20 - 2.30 $2.15 - 2.25
Depreciation of other
assets $0.20 - 0.25 $0.20 - 0.24 $0.20 - 0.24
Interest expense(e) $0.30 - 0.35 $0.40 - 0.45 $0.35 - 0.40
Other Income per Mcfe:
Natural gas and oil
marketing income $0.09 - 0.11 $0.09 - 0.11 $0.09 - 0.11
Service operations income $0.04 - 0.06 $0.04 - 0.06 $0.04 - 0.06
Book Tax Rate 38.5% 38.5% 38.5%
Cash Income Taxes - in
millions $550 - 650 $200 - 300 $200 - 300

Equivalent Shares
Outstanding - in millions:
Basic 560 - 565 565 - 570 575 - 580
Diluted 580 - 585 585 - 590 595 - 600

Cash Flow
Projections - in Quarter Ending Year Ending Year Ending
millions 12/31/2008 12/31/2009 12/31/2010
--------------- ----------------- -----------------
Net inflows:
------------------
Operating cash
flow before
changes in
assets and
liabilities
(f)(g) $1,250 - 1,375 $5,800 - 6,000 $6,250 - 6,750
Leasehold and
producing
property
transactions:
------------------
Sale of
leasehold
and
producing
properties
(a) $2,100 - 2,500 $1,250 - 2,000 $1,250 - 2,000
Sale of
producing
properties
via VPP's(a) $400 - 500 $1,000 - 1,250 $1,000 - 1,250
Acquisition
of leasehold
and
producing
properties ($750 - $1,000) ($1,250 - $1,750) ($1,000 - $1,500)
------------------ --------------- ----------------- -----------------
Net leasehold
and
producing
property
transactions $1,750 - 2,000 $1,000 - 1,500 $1,250 - 1,750
Debt and equity
offerings - - -
Midstream
financings $1,050 - 1,275 $500 - 700 $500 - 700
Proceeds from
investments and
other - $500- 750 $150 - 250
--------------- ----------------- -----------------
Total Cash Inflows $4,050 - 4,650 $7,800 - 8,950 $8,150 - 9,450
=============== ================= =================

Net outflows:
------------------
Drilling $1,200 - 1,300 $4,250 - 4,750 $4,750 - 5,250
Geophysical
costs $75 $225 - 275 $225 - 275
Midstream
infrastructure
and compression $300 - 325 $1,000 - 1,200 $900 - 1,000
Other PP&E $50 - 75 $250 - 300 $250 - 300
Dividends,
senior notes
redemption,
capitalized
interest, etc. $150 - 200 $575 - 600 $575 - 600
Cash income
taxes $550 - 650 $200 - 300 $200 - 300
--------------- ----------------- -----------------
Total Cash
Outflows $2,325 - 2,625 $6,500 - 7,425 $6,900 - 7,725
=============== ================= =================

Net Cash Change $1,725 - 2,025 $1,300 -1,525 $1,250 - 1,725
=============== ================= =================

(a) The 2008 fourth quarter production and cash flow forecasts reflect anticipated sales by the company of: 1) producing properties for approximately $450 million in a volumetric production payment (VPP); and 2) producing properties in South Texas and undeveloped leasehold in the Marcellus Shale and other areas for approximately $2.3 billion. The 2009 and 2010 production and cash flow forecasts reflect anticipated sales by the company of: 1) producing properties for approximately $1.1 billion in each year in VPP transactions; and 2) undeveloped leasehold or other producing properties for approximately $1.6 billion in each year.

(b) NYMEX natural gas prices have been updated for actual contract prices through October 2008.

(c) Severance tax per mcfe is based on NYMEX prices of $60.00 per bbl of oil and $6.50 to $7.50 per mcf of natural gas during the 2008 fourth quarter; $80.00 per bbl of oil and $7.50 to $8.50 per mcf of natural gas during 2009; and $80.00 per bbl of oil and $7.50 to $8.50 per mcf of natural gas during 2010.

(d) Excludes expenses associated with noncash stock compensation.

(e) Does not include gains or losses on interest rate derivatives (SFAS 133).

(f) A non-GAAP financial measure. We are unable to provide a reconciliation to projected cash provided by operating activities, the most comparable GAAP measure, because of uncertainties associated with projecting future changes in assets and liabilities.

(g) Assumes NYMEX natural gas prices of $6.50 to $7.50 per mcf and NYMEX oil prices of $60.00 per bbl in the 2008 fourth quarter and NYMEX natural gas prices of $7.00 to $8.00 per mcf and NYMEX oil prices of $80.00 per bbl in 2009 and 2010.

Commodity Hedging Activities

The company utilizes hedging strategies to hedge the price of a portion of its future natural gas and oil production. These strategies include:

(i) For swap instruments, Chesapeake receives a fixed price and pays a floating market price to the counterparty. The fixed-price payment and the floating-price payment are netted, resulting in a net amount due to or from the counterparty.

(ii) Basis protection swaps are arrangements that guarantee a price differential for oil or natural gas from a specified delivery point. For Mid-Continent basis protection swaps, which have negative differentials to NYMEX, Chesapeake receives a payment from the counterparty if the price differential is greater than the stated terms of the contract and pays the counterparty if the price differential is less than the stated terms of the contract. For Appalachian basis protection swaps, which have positive differentials to NYMEX, Chesapeake receives a payment from the counterparty if the price differential is less than the stated terms of the contract and pays the counterparty if the price differential is greater than the stated terms of the contract.

(iii) For knockout swaps, Chesapeake receives a fixed price and pays a floating market price. The fixed price received by Chesapeake includes a premium in exchange for the possibility to reduce the counterparty's exposure to zero, in any given month, if the floating market price is lower than certain predetermined knockout prices.

(iv) For cap-swaps, Chesapeake receives a fixed price and pays a floating market price. The fixed price received by Chesapeake includes a premium in exchange for a "cap" limiting the counterparty's exposure. In other words, there is no limit to Chesapeake's exposure but there is a limit to the downside exposure of the counterparty

(v) For written call options, Chesapeake receives a premium from the counterparty in exchange for the sale of a call option. If the market price exceeds the fixed price of the call option, Chesapeake pays the counterparty such excess. If the market price settles below the fixed price of the call option, no payment is due from Chesapeake.

(vi) Collars contain a fixed floor price (put) and ceiling price (call). If the market price exceeds the call strike price or falls below the put strike price, Chesapeake receives the fixed price and pays the market price. If the market price is between the call and the put strike price, no payments are due from either party.

(vii) A three-way collar contract consists of a standard collar contract plus a written put option with a strike price below the floor price of the collar. In addition to the settlement of the collar, the put option requires Chesapeake to make a payment to the counterparty equal to the difference between the put option price and the settlement price if the settlement price for any settlement period is below the put option strike price.

Commodity markets are volatile, and as a result, Chesapeake's hedging activity is dynamic. As market conditions warrant, the company may elect to settle a hedging transaction prior to its scheduled maturity date and lock in the gain or loss on the transaction.

Chesapeake enters into natural gas and oil derivative transactions in order to mitigate a portion of its exposure to adverse market changes in natural gas and oil prices. Accordingly, associated gains or losses from the derivative transactions are reflected as adjustments to natural gas and oil sales. All realized gains and losses from natural gas and oil derivatives are included in natural gas and oil sales in the month of related production. Pursuant to SFAS 133, certain derivatives do not qualify for designation as cash flow hedges. Changes in the fair value of these nonqualifying derivatives that occur prior to their maturity (i.e., because of temporary fluctuations in value) are reported currently in the consolidated statement of operations as unrealized gains (losses) within natural gas and oil sales.

Following provisions of SFAS 133, changes in the fair value of derivative instruments designated as cash flow hedges, to the extent effective in offsetting cash flows attributable to hedged risk, are recorded in other comprehensive income until the hedged item is recognized in earnings. Any change in fair value resulting from ineffectiveness is recognized currently in natural gas and oil sales.

Excluding the swaps assumed in connection with the acquisition of CNR which are described below, the company currently has the following open natural gas swaps in place and also has the following gains (losses) from lifted natural gas swaps:

Total
Open Swap Lifted
Positions Total Gain
Avg. as a Gains (Loss) per
NYMEX Assuming % of (Losses) Mcf of
Strike Natural Estimated from Estimated
Open Price Gas Total Lifted Total
Swaps of Production Natural Swaps Natural
in Open in Bcf's Gas ($ Gas
Bcf's Swaps of: Production millions) Production
======================================================================
Q4 2008 108.2 $9.27 190 57% $85.2 $0.45
======================================================================

======================================================================
Total
2009(1) 327.7 $9.43 903 36% ($36.7) ($0.04)
======================================================================

======================================================================
Total
2010(1) 422.6 $9.58 1,052 40% $33.9 $0.03
======================================================================

(1) Certain hedging arrangements include knockout swaps with provisions limiting the counterparty's exposure below $6.50 covering 9 bcf in 2008 and prices ranging from $5.65 to $7.25 covering 150 bcf in 2009 and $5.45 to $7.40 covering 321 bcf in 2010.

The company currently has the following open natural gas collars in place:

Open Collars
Assuming as a % of
Natural Gas Estimated
Open Avg. NYMEX Avg. NYMEX Production Total
Collars Floor Ceiling in Bcf's Natural Gas
in Bcf's Price Price of: Production
======================================================================
Q4 2008 26.6 $7.75 $9.32 190 14%
======================================================================

======================================================================
Total 2009(1) 267.5 $7.21 $9.27 903 30%
======================================================================

======================================================================
Total 2010(1) 25.6 $7.71 $11.46 1,052 2%
======================================================================

(1) Certain collar arrangements include three-way collars that include written put options with strike prices ranging from $5.00 to $6.00 covering 105 bcf in 2009 and at $6.00 covering 4 bcf in 2010.

The company currently has the following natural gas written call options in place:

Call Options
Assuming as a % of
Call Avg. Natural Gas Estimated Total
Options Avg. NYMEX Premium Production Natural Gas
in Bcf's Call Price per mcf in Bcf's of: Production
======================================================================
Q4 2008 32.2 $10.37 $0.74 190 17%
======================================================================

======================================================================
Total 2009 216.2 $11.40 $0.63 903 24%
======================================================================

======================================================================
Total 2010 231.8 $10.77 $0.72 1,052 22%
======================================================================

The company has the following natural gas basis protection swaps in place:

Mid-Continent Appalachia
--------------------- ---------------------
Volume in NYMEX Volume in NYMEX
Bcf's less(1): Bcf's plus(1):
--------- ---------- --------- ----------
Q4 2008 32.1 $ 0.45 5.8 $ 0.33
2009 77.1 0.35 16.9 0.28
2010 -- -- 10.2 0.26
2011 45.1 0.64 12.1 0.25
2012 43.2 0.48 -- --
--------- ---------- --------- ----------
Totals 197.5 $ 0.46 45.0 $ 0.27
========= ========== ========= ==========

(1) weighted average

We assumed certain liabilities related to open derivative positions in connection with the CNR acquisition in November 2005. In accordance with SFAS 141, these derivative positions were recorded at fair value in the purchase price allocation as a liability of $592 million ($76 million as of September 30, 2008). The recognition of the derivative liability and other assumed liabilities resulted in an increase in the total purchase price which was allocated to the assets acquired. Because of this accounting treatment, only cash settlements for changes in fair value subsequent to the acquisition date for the derivative positions assumed result in adjustments to our natural gas and oil revenues upon settlement. For example, if the fair value of the derivative positions assumed does not change, then upon the sale of the underlying production and corresponding settlement of the derivative positions, cash would be paid to the counterparties and there would be no adjustment to natural gas and oil revenues related to the derivative positions. If, however, the actual sales price is different from the price assumed in the original fair value calculation, the difference would be reflected as either a decrease or increase in natural gas and oil revenues, depending upon whether the sales price was higher or lower, respectively, than the prices assumed in the original fair value calculation. For accounting purposes, the net effect of these acquired hedges is that we hedged the production volumes listed below at their fair values on the date of our acquisition of CNR.

Pursuant to SFAS 149 "Amendment of SFAS 133 on Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities," the assumed CNR derivative instruments are deemed to contain a significant financing element and all cash flows associated with these positions are reported as financing activity in the statement of cash flows.

The following details the CNR derivatives (natural gas swaps) we have assumed:

Open Swap
Avg. Positions
NYMEX as a %
Strike Avg. Fair Assuming of
Price Value Upon Natural Estimated
Open Of Open Acquisition Initial Gas Total
Swaps Swaps of Liability Production Natural
in (per Open Swaps Acquired in Bcf's Gas
Bcf's Mcf) (per Mcf) (per Mcf) of: Production
======================================================================
Q4 2008 9.7 $4.66 $7.84 ($3.17) 190 5%
======================================================================

======================================================================
Total 2009 18.3 $5.18 $7.28 ($2.10) 903 2%
======================================================================

Note: Not shown above are collars covering 3.7 bcf of production in 2009 at an average floor and ceiling of $4.50 and $6.00.

The company also has the following crude oil swaps in place:

Total Total
Open Swap Gains Lifted
Positions (Losses) Gain
Assuming as a % from (Loss)
Open Avg. Oil of Lifted per bbl of
Swaps NYMEX Production Estimated Swaps Estimated
in Strike in mbbls Total Oil ($ Total Oil
mbbls Price of: Production millions) Production
======================================================================
Q4 2008(1) 1,214 $78.09 2,825 43% ($2.3) ($0.81)
======================================================================

======================================================================
Total
2009(1) 5,728 $81.19 12,000 48% $38.5 $3.21
======================================================================

======================================================================
Total
2010(1) 4,745 $90.25 13,000 37% -- --
======================================================================

(1) Certain hedging arrangements include cap-swaps and knockout swaps with provisions limiting the counterparty's exposure below prices ranging from $45.00 to $60.00 covering 982 mbbls in 2008, from $50.00 to $60.00 covering 6,038 mbbls in 2009 and $60.00 covering 4,745 mbbls in 2010.

Note: Not shown above are written call options covering 768 mbbls of production in 2008 at a weighted average price of $85.86 for a weighted average premium of $4.05, 5,110 mbbls of production in 2009 at a weighed average price of $133.93 for a weighted average premium of $3.90 and 5,110 mbbls of production in 2010 at a weighed average price of $140.00 for a weighted average premium of $4.46.

SCHEDULE "B"

CHESAPEAKE'S PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AS OF OCTOBER 14, 2008

(PROVIDED FOR REFERENCE ONLY)

NOW SUPERSEDED BY OUTLOOK AS OF OCTOBER 30, 2008

Quarter Ending December 31, 2008 and Years Ending December 31, 2009 and 2010.

We have adopted a policy of periodically providing guidance on certain factors that affect our future financial performance. As of October 14, 2008, we are using the following key assumptions in our projections for the fourth quarter of 2008 and the full years 2009 and 2010.

The primary changes from our September 22, 2008 Outlook are in italicized bold and are explained as follows:

1) Projected effects of changes in our hedging positions have been updated;

2) Certain cost assumptions and budgeted capital expenditure assumptions have been updated;

3) Our NYMEX oil price assumption for realized hedging effects and estimating future operating cash flow has been reduced; and

4) Shares outstanding have been updated to remove the effects of certain contingent convertible senior notes that are not presently convertible at the current stock price level.

Quarter Ending Year Ending Year Ending
12/31/2008 12/31/2009 12/31/2010
-------------- ------------ -------------
Estimated Production(a)
Natural gas - bcf 197 - 201 893 - 913 1,032 - 1,072
Oil - mbbls 2,825 12,000 13,000
Natural gas equivalent -
bcfe 214 - 218 965 - 985 1,110 -1,150

Daily natural gas equivalent
midpoint - mmcfe 2,350 2,670 3,095

Year-over-year production
increase 5.9% 15.6% 15.9%

NYMEX Prices (b) (for calculation of realized hedging effects only):
Natural gas - $/mcf $7.82 $8.00 $8.00
Oil - $/bbl $80.00 $80.00 $80.00
Estimated Realized Hedging Effects (based on assumed NYMEX prices
above):
Natural gas - $/mcf $1.48 $1.04 $0.82
Oil - $/bbl ($2.82) $2.42 $4.79
Estimated Differentials to
NYMEX Prices:
Natural gas - $/mcf 10 - 14% 10 - 14% 10 - 14%
Oil - $/bbl 5 - 7% 5 - 7% 5 - 7%
Operating Costs per Mcfe of Projected Production:
Production expense $1.00 - 1.10 $1.10 - 1.20 $1.15 - 1.25
Production taxes (about
5% of O&G revenues) (c) $0.35 - 0.40 $0.35 - 0.40 $0.35 - 0.40
General and
administrative(d) $0.33 - 0.37 $0.33 - 0.37 $0.33 - 0.37
Stock-based compensation
(non-cash) $0.10 - 0.12 $0.10 - 0.12 $0.10 - 0.12
DD&A of natural gas and
oil assets $2.30 - 2.35 $2.20 - 2.30 $2.15 - 2.25
Depreciation of other
assets $0.20 - 0.24 $0.20 - 0.24 $0.20 - 0.24
Interest expense(e) $0.30 - 0.35 $0.40 - 0.45 $0.35 - 0.40
Other Income per Mcfe:
Natural gas and oil
marketing income $0.09 - 0.11 $0.09 - 0.11 $0.09 - 0.11
Service operations income $0.04 - 0.06 $0.04 - 0.06 $0.04 - 0.06
Book Tax Rate 38.5% 38.5% 38.5%
Cash Income Taxes - in
millions $350 - 450 $200 - 300 $200 - 300

Equivalent Shares
Outstanding - in millions:
Basic 560 - 565 565 - 570 575 - 580
Diluted 580 - 585 585 - 590 595 - 600

Cash Flow
Projections - in Quarter Ending Year Ending Year Ending
millions 12/31/2008 12/31/2009 12/31/2010
--------------- ----------------- -----------------
Net inflows:
------------------
Operating cash
flow before
changes in
assets and
liabilities
(f)(g) $1,375 - 1,425 $5,800 - 6,000 $6,250 - 6,750
Leasehold and
producing
property
transactions:
------------------
Sale of
leasehold
and
producing
properties
(a) $2,100 - 2,500 $1,250 - 2,000 $1,250 - 2,000
Sale of
producing
properties
via VPP's(a) $400 - 500 $1,000 - 1,250 $1,000 - 1,250
Acquisition
of leasehold
and
producing
properties ($750 - $1,000) ($1,250 - $1,750) ($1,000 - $1,500)
------------------ --------------- ----------------- -----------------
Net leasehold
and
producing
property
transactions $1,750 - 2,000 $1,000 - 1,500 $1,250 - 1,750
Debt and equity
offerings - - -
Midstream
financings $1,050 - 1,275 $500 - 700 $500 - 700
Proceeds from
investments and
other - $500 - 750 $150 - 250
--------------- ----------------- -----------------
Total Cash Inflows $4,175 - 4,700 $7,800 - 8,950 $8,150 - 9,450
=============== ================= =================

Net outflows:
------------------
Drilling $1,200 - 1,300 $4,250 - 4,750 $4,750 - 5,250
Geophysical
costs $75 $225 - 275 $225 - 275
Midstream
infrastructure
and compression $300 - 325 $1,000 - 1,200 $900 - 1,000
Other PP&E $50 - 75 $250 - 300 $250 - 300
Dividends,
senior notes
redemption,
capitalized
interest, etc. $150 - 200 $575 - 600 $575 - 600
Cash income
taxes $350 - 450 $200 - 300 $200 - 300
--------------- ----------------- -----------------
Total Cash
Outflows $2,125 - 2,425 $6,500 - 7,425 $6,900 - 7,725
=============== ================= =================

Net Cash Change $2,050 - 2,275 $1,300 -1,525 $1,250 - 1,725
=============== ================= =================

(a) The 2008 fourth quarter production and cash flow forecasts reflect anticipated sales by the company of: 1) producing properties for approximately $450 million in a volumetric production payment (VPP); and 2) producing properties in South Texas and undeveloped leasehold in the Marcellus Shale and other areas for approximately $2.3 billion. The 2009 and 2010 production and cash flow forecasts reflect anticipated sales by the company of: 1) producing properties for approximately $1.1 billion in each year in VPP transactions; and 2) undeveloped leasehold or other producing properties for approximately $1.6 billion in each year.

(b) NYMEX natural gas prices have been updated for actual contract prices through October 2008.

(c) Severance tax per mcfe is based on NYMEX prices of $80.00 per bbl of oil and $7.50 to $8.50 per mcf of natural gas during Q4 2008; $80.00 per bbl of oil and $7.50 to $8.50 per mcf of natural gas during 2009; and $80.00 per bbl of oil and $7.50 to $8.50 per mcf of natural gas during 2010.

(d) Excludes expenses associated with noncash stock compensation.

(e) Does not include gains or losses on interest rate derivatives (SFAS 133).

(f) A non-GAAP financial measure. We are unable to provide a reconciliation to projected cash provided by operating activities, the most comparable GAAP measure, because of uncertainties associated with projecting future changes in assets and liabilities.

(g) Assumes NYMEX natural gas of $7.00 to $8.00 per mcf and NYMEX oil prices of $80.00 per bbl.

Commodity Hedging Activities

The company utilizes hedging strategies to hedge the price of a portion of its future natural gas and oil production.

These strategies include:

(i) For swap instruments, Chesapeake receives a fixed price and pays a floating market price to the counterparty. The fixed-price payment and the floating-price payment are netted, resulting in a net amount due to or from the counterparty.

(ii) Basis protection swaps are arrangements that guarantee a price differential for oil or natural gas from a specified delivery point. For Mid-Continent basis protection swaps, which have negative differentials to NYMEX, Chesapeake receives a payment from the counterparty if the price differential is greater than the stated terms of the contract and pays the counterparty if the price differential is less than the stated terms of the contract. For Appalachian basis protection swaps, which have positive differentials to NYMEX, Chesapeake receives a payment from the counterparty if the price differential is less than the stated terms of the contract and pays the counterparty if the price differential is greater than the stated terms of the contract.

(iii) For knockout swaps, Chesapeake receives a fixed price and pays a floating market price. The fixed price received by Chesapeake includes a premium in exchange for the possibility to reduce the counterparty's exposure to zero, in any given month, if the floating market price is lower than certain predetermined knockout prices.

(iv) For cap-swaps, Chesapeake receives a fixed price and pays a floating market price. The fixed price received by Chesapeake includes a premium in exchange for a "cap" limiting the counterparty's exposure. In other words, there is no limit to Chesapeake's exposure but there is a limit to the downside exposure of the counterparty

(v) For written call options, Chesapeake receives a premium from the counterparty in exchange for the sale of a call option. If the market price exceeds the fixed price of the call option, Chesapeake pays the counterparty such excess. If the market price settles below the fixed price of the call option, no payment is due from Chesapeake.

(vi) Collars contain a fixed floor price (put) and ceiling price (call). If the market price exceeds the call strike price or falls below the put strike price, Chesapeake receives the fixed price and pays the market price. If the market price is between the call and the put strike price, no payments are due from either party.

(vii) A three-way collar contract consists of a standard collar contract plus a written put option with a strike price below the floor price of the collar. In addition to the settlement of the collar, the put option requires Chesapeake to make a payment to the counterparty equal to the difference between the put option price and the settlement price if the settlement price for any settlement period is below the put option strike price.

Commodity markets are volatile, and as a result, Chesapeake's hedging activity is dynamic. As market conditions warrant, the company may elect to settle a hedging transaction prior to its scheduled maturity date and lock in the gain or loss on the transaction.

Chesapeake enters into natural gas and oil derivative transactions in order to mitigate a portion of its exposure to adverse market changes in natural gas and oil prices. Accordingly, associated gains or losses from the derivative transactions are reflected as adjustments to natural gas and oil sales. All realized gains and losses from natural gas and oil derivatives are included in natural gas and oil sales in the month of related production. Pursuant to SFAS 133, certain derivatives do not qualify for designation as cash flow hedges. Changes in the fair value of these nonqualifying derivatives that occur prior to their maturity (i.e., because of temporary fluctuations in value) are reported currently in the consolidated statement of operations as unrealized gains (losses) within natural gas and oil sales.

Following provisions of SFAS 133, changes in the fair value of derivative instruments designated as cash flow hedges, to the extent effective in offsetting cash flows attributable to hedged risk, are recorded in other comprehensive income until the hedged item is recognized in earnings. Any change in fair value resulting from ineffectiveness is recognized currently in natural gas and oil sales.

Excluding the swaps assumed in connection with the acquisition of CNR which are described below, the company currently has the following open natural gas swaps in place and also has the following gains (losses) from lifted natural gas swaps:

Open Swap
Positions Total Total Lifted
as a Gains Gain
Avg. Assuming % of (Losses) (Loss) per
NYMEX Natural Estimated from Mcf of
Open Strike Gas Total Lifted Estimated
Swaps Price Production Natural Swaps Total
in of Open in Bcf's Gas ($ Natural Gas
Bcf's Swaps of: Production millions) Production
======================================================================
Q4 2008 110.6 $9.30 199 56% $79.70 $0.40
======================================================================

======================================================================
Total
2009(1) 533.0 $9.46 903 59% ($36.70) ($0.04)
======================================================================

======================================================================
Total
2010(1) 422.6 $9.58 1,052 40% $33.90 $0.03
======================================================================

(1) Certain hedging arrangements include knockout swaps with provisions limiting the counterparty's exposure below prices ranging from $5.45 to $6.50 covering 35 bcf in 2008, $5.45 to $7.25 covering 356 bcf in 2009 and $5.45 to $7.40 covering 318 bcf in 2010.

The company currently has the following open natural gas collars in place:

Open Collars
Assuming as a % of
Avg. Avg. Natural Gas Estimated
Open NYMEX NYMEX Production Total
Collars Floor Ceiling in Bcf's Natural Gas
in Bcf's Price Price of: Production
======================================================================
Q4 2008 26.6 $7.75 $9.32 199 13%
======================================================================

======================================================================
Total 2009(1) 63.9 $8.05 $11.18 903 7%
======================================================================

======================================================================
Total 2010(1) 25.6 $7.71 $11.46 1,052 2%
======================================================================

(1) Certain collar arrangements include three-way collars that include written put options with strike prices ranging from $5.50 to $6.00 covering 38 bcf in 2009 and at $6.00 covering 4 bcf in 2010.

The company currently has the following natural gas written call options in place:

Call Options
as a % of
Assuming Estimated
Call Avg. Natural Gas Total
Options Avg. NYMEX Premium Production Natural Gas
in Bcf's Call Price per mcf in Bcf's of: Production
======================================================================
Q4 2008 34.0 $10.39 $0.70 199 17%
======================================================================

======================================================================
Total 2009 225.5 $11.37 $0.61 903 25%
======================================================================

======================================================================
Total 2010 231.8 $10.77 $0.72 1,052 22%
======================================================================

The company has the following natural gas basis protection swaps in place:

Mid-Continent Appalachia
----------------------- -----------------------
Volume in NYMEX Volume in NYMEX
Bcf's less(1): Bcf's plus(1):
--------- ------------ --------- ------------
Q4 2008 32.1 $ 0.45 5.8 $ 0.33
2009 77.1 0.35 16.9 0.28
2010 -- -- 10.2 0.26
2011 45.1 0.64 12.1 0.25
2012 43.2 0.48 -- --
--------- ------------ --------- ------------
Totals 197.5 $ 0.46 45.0 $ 0.27
========= ============ ========= ============

(1) weighted average

We assumed certain liabilities related to open derivative positions in connection with the CNR acquisition in November 2005. In accordance with SFAS 141, these derivative positions were recorded at fair value in the purchase price allocation as a liability of $592 million ($102 million as of June 30, 2008). The recognition of the derivative liability and other assumed liabilities resulted in an increase in the total purchase price which was allocated to the assets acquired. Because of this accounting treatment, only cash settlements for changes in fair value subsequent to the acquisition date for the derivative positions assumed result in adjustments to our natural gas and oil revenues upon settlement. For example, if the fair value of the derivative positions assumed does not change, then upon the sale of the underlying production and corresponding settlement of the derivative positions, cash would be paid to the counterparties and there would be no adjustment to natural gas and oil revenues related to the derivative positions. If, however, the actual sales price is different from the price assumed in the original fair value calculation, the difference would be reflected as either a decrease or increase in natural gas and oil revenues, depending upon whether the sales price was higher or lower, respectively, than the prices assumed in the original fair value calculation. For accounting purposes, the net effect of these acquired hedges is that we hedged the production volumes listed below at their fair values on the date of our acquisition of CNR.

Pursuant to SFAS 149 "Amendment of SFAS 133 on Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities," the assumed CNR derivative instruments are deemed to contain a significant financing element and all cash flows associated with these positions are reported as financing activity in the statement of cash flows.

The following details the CNR derivatives (natural gas swaps) we have assumed:

Open Swap
Avg. Positions
NYMEX as a %
Strike Avg. Fair Assuming of
Price Value Upon Natural Estimated
Open Of Open Acquisition Initial Gas Total
Swaps Swaps of Liability Production Natural
in (per Open Swaps Acquired in Bcf's Gas
Bcf's Mcf) (per Mcf) (per Mcf) of: Production
======================================================================
Q4 2008 9.7 $4.66 $7.84 ($3.17) 199 5%
======================================================================

======================================================================
Total 2009 18.3 $5.18 $7.28 ($2.10) 903 2%
======================================================================

Note: Not shown above are collars covering 3.7 bcf of production in 2009 at an average floor and ceiling of $4.50 and $6.00.

The company also has the following crude oil swaps in place:

Open Swap Total Total
Positions Losses Lifted
Assuming as a % from Losses per
Open Avg. Oil of Lifted bbl of
Swaps NYMEX Production Estimated Swaps Estimated
in Strike in mbbls Total Oil ($ Total Oil
mbbls Price of: Production millions) Production
======================================================================
Q4 2008(1) 1,702 $77.57 2,825 60% ($4.7) ($1.68)
======================================================================

======================================================================
Total
2009(1) 8,364 $82.38 12,000 70% ($0.6) ($0.05)
======================================================================

======================================================================
Total
2010(1) 4,745 $90.25 13,000 37% -- --
======================================================================

(1) Certain hedging arrangements include cap-swaps and knockout swaps with provisions limiting the counterparty's exposure below prices ranging from $45.00 to $60.00 covering 1,104 mbbls in 2008, from $52.50 to $60.00 covering 7,848 mbbls in 2009 and $60.00 covering 4,745 mbbls in 2010.

Note: Not shown above are written call options covering 890 mbbls of production in 2008 at a weighted average price of $86.43 for a weighted average premium of $3.63, 3,285 mbbls of production in 2009 at a weighed average price of $122.22 for a weighted average premium of $6.07 and 3,285 mbbls of production in 2010 at a weighed average price of $131.67 for a weighted average premium of $6.94.

29 octubre 2008

Valero Energy Corporation Reports Third Quarter Earnings

SAN ANTONIO --(Business Wire)-- -- Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) today reported third quarter 2008 income from continuing operations of $1.2 billion, or $2.18 per share, which compares to $848 million, or $1.34 per share, in the third quarter of 2007. The third quarter 2008 results include the company's pre-tax gain of $305 million on the sale of its Krotz Springs, Louisiana refinery to a subsidiary of Alon USA Energy, Inc., which was effective July 1, 2008. Excluding this gain, third quarter 2008 income from continuing operations was $982 million, or $1.86 per share. Due to long-term product supply agreements between Valero and Alon, the results of operations related to the Krotz Springs refinery have not been presented as discontinued operations.

Income from continuing operations for the nine months ended September 30, 2008, was $2.1 billion, or $4.02 per share, compared to $4.0 billion, or $6.66 per share, for the nine months ended September 30, 2007. Excluding the gain on the sale of the Krotz Springs refinery, income from continuing operations for the nine months ended September 30, 2008 was $2.0 billion, or $3.70 per share.

Third quarter 2008 operating income was $1.8 billion compared to $1.2 billion for the third quarter of 2007. Excluding the gain on the sale of the Krotz Springs refinery, the increase in operating income was mainly due to higher margins for distillate products, such as diesel and jet fuels. Partially offsetting the higher margins for distillate products was a decrease in margins for gasoline.

"As a result of our good earnings, our financial position has continued to improve," said Bill Klesse, Valero's Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer. "At the end of the third quarter, our net debt-to-capitalization ratio was 15.8%, one of the lowest in company history. In early October, Moody's recognized our financial strength by raising our investment-grade credit rating from Baa3 to Baa2 with a stable outlook.

"Given the very uncertain economic environment, we have significantly reduced our capital spending. We estimate total capital spending for 2008 will be approximately $3.0 billion, down $800 million from our last update, and down $1.5 billion from our original budget of $4.5 billion. For 2009, we estimate capital spending will be $3.5 billion, also down $500 million from our previous guidance. We will continue to review our capital spending considering our opportunities and the economic outlook."

Regarding uses of cash in the third quarter of 2008, the company's capital spending was $749 million, of which $76 million was for turnaround expenditures. The company also used $78 million for dividend payments and spent $74 million to purchase 2 million shares of its common stock. In October, the company purchased an additional 8.3 million shares, taking the year-to-date total purchases to nearly 23 million shares, or more than 4% of shares outstanding at the beginning of this year.

"Looking at market fundamentals, a key item in the third quarter was the sharp drop in the price of crude oil, and this decline has obviously continued so far in the fourth quarter," said Klesse. "The price of WTI light sweet crude oil began the third quarter at approximately $140 per barrel, but recently closed below $65 per barrel. Although the fall in crude oil prices has not translated into higher margins for all of Valero's products, the lower crude oil prices have led to substantially lower retail pump prices, which is positive for consumers and demand for our products. The lower prices will also provide consumers a clearer view of the magnitude of the subsidies necessary to make alternative fuels competitive.

"Regarding third quarter product margins, conditions were very volatile. Low gasoline margins in July were followed by higher margins in August as production adjusted to demand. When the hurricanes hit the Gulf Coast and reduced refinery production, gasoline inventories fell to historically low levels, and margins responded, which increased average margins for the third quarter. In contrast to the volatile movement of gasoline margins, distillate margins remained very good throughout the third quarter as global supply and demand balances were tight. With winter approaching, we continue to expect excellent distillate margins even though worldwide economic activity is slowing."

Margins for many of the company's secondary products, such as asphalt, heavy fuel oil, petroleum coke, and petrochemical feedstocks, increased in the third quarter compared to the prior quarter as the cost of crude oil fell faster than the prices of those products. This favorable margin relationship continues as crude prices continue to fall.

"In our refining operations, the hurricanes certainly complicated matters," said Klesse. "We had four refineries shut down, but we were fortunate to avoid major damage from the hurricanes. We thank all of our employees for a dedicated and committed effort to return our refineries and most of our retail stores to normal operations as quickly as possible.

"Uncertainty in the financial markets and a pessimistic economic outlook have noticeably added to the inherent volatility in the refining industry. Valero's stock price, like those of nearly all companies in the energy sector, has been hit hard. Obviously, we feel that our stock price has been beaten down unfairly when you consider our balance sheet strength, cash position, operations, and continuing profitability. You can expect us to maintain our balanced approach by investing in growth projects, paying off debt, buying back stock, and increasing dividends, but clearly we intend to hold much more cash than in the past."

Valero's senior management will hold a conference call at 11 a.m. ET (10 a.m. CT) today to discuss this earnings release and provide an update on company operations. A live broadcast of the conference call will be available on the company's web site at www.valero.com.

Valero Energy Corporation is a Fortune 500 company based in San Antonio, with approximately 22,000 employees and 2007 revenues of more than $95 billion. The company owns and operates 16 refineries throughout the United States, Canada and the Caribbean with a combined throughput capacity of approximately 3.1 million barrels per day, making it the largest refiner in North America. Valero is also one of the nation's largest retail operators with approximately 5,800 retail and branded wholesale outlets in the United States, Canada and the Caribbean under various brand names including Valero, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Beacon. Please visit www.valero.com for more information.

Statements contained in this release that state the company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements intended to be covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The words "believe," "expect," "should," "could," "estimates," and other similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. It is important to note that actual results could differ materially from those projected in such forward-looking statements. For more information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed or forecasted, see Valero's annual reports on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and on Valero's website at www.valero.com.

VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
EARNINGS RELEASE
(Millions of Dollars, Except per Share, per Barrel, and per Gallon
Amounts)
(Unaudited)


Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended
September 30, September 30,
-------------------------- ------------------
2008 2007 2008 2007 (1)
------------- ------------ --------- --------
STATEMENT OF INCOME
DATA:
Operating Revenues (2) $ 35,960 $ 23,699 $100,545 $66,656
------------- ------------ --------- --------

Costs and Expenses:
Cost of Sales 32,506 20,810 91,848 55,630
Refining Operating
Expenses 1,179 1,036 3,426 2,955
Retail Selling
Expenses 201 190 579 561
General and
Administrative
Expenses 169 152 421 474
Depreciation and
Amortization
Expense 370 343 1,106 1,002
Gain on Sale of
Krotz Springs
Refinery (3) (305) - (305) -
------------- ------------ --------- --------
Total Costs and
Expenses 34,120 22,531 97,075 60,622
------------- ------------ --------- --------

Operating Income 1,840 1,168 3,470 6,034

Other Income, Net (4) 36 145 71 157

Interest and Debt
Expense:
Incurred (112) (148) (335) (347)
Capitalized 31 25 74 83
------------- ------------ --------- --------

Income from Continuing
Operations Before
Income Tax Expense 1,795 1,190 3,280 5,927

Income Tax Expense 643 342 1,133 1,929
------------- ------------ --------- --------

Income from Continuing
Operations 1,152 848 2,147 3,998

Income from
Discontinued
Operations, Net of
Income Taxes (1) - 426 - 669
------------- ------------ --------- --------

Net Income $ 1,152 $ 1,274 $ 2,147 $ 4,667
============= ============ ========= ========

Earnings per Common
Share:
Continuing
Operations $ 2.21 $ 1.54 $ 4.08 $ 7.00
Discontinued
Operations - 0.77 - 1.17
------------- ------------ --------- --------
Total $ 2.21 $ 2.31 $ 4.08 $ 8.17
============= ============ ========= ========

Weighted Average
Common Shares
Outstanding (in
millions) 522 551 526 571

Earnings per Common
Share - Assuming
Dilution:
Continuing
Operations (5) $ 2.18 $ 1.34 $ 4.02 $ 6.66
Discontinued
Operations - 0.75 - 1.14
------------- ------------ --------- --------
Total $ 2.18 $ 2.09 $ 4.02 $ 7.80
============= ============ ========= ========

Weighted Average
Common Shares
Outstanding-
Assuming Dilution
(in millions) 529 564 535 587

September 30, December 31,
2008 2007
------------- ------------
BALANCE SHEET DATA:
Cash and Temporary
Cash Investments $ 2,767 $ 2,464

Total Debt $ 6,475 $ 6,862

VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
EARNINGS RELEASE
(Millions of Dollars, Except per Share, per Barrel, and per Gallon
Amounts)
(Unaudited)


Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended
September 30, September 30,
------------------ -----------------
2008 2007 2008 2007 (1)
---------- ------- -------- --------
Operating Income (Loss) by
Business Segment:
Refining $ 1,913 $1,259 $3,716 $6,362
---------- ------- -------- --------
Retail:
U.S. 81 54 120 115
Canada 26 20 86 68
---------- ------- -------- --------
Total Retail 107 74 206 183
---------- ------- -------- --------
Total Before Corporate 2,020 1,333 3,922 6,545
Corporate (180) (165) (452) (511)
---------- ------- -------- --------
Total $ 1,840 $1,168 $3,470 $6,034
========== ======= ======== ========

Depreciation and Amortization by
Business Segment:
Refining $ 331 $ 307 $ 998 $ 902
---------- ------- -------- --------
Retail:
U.S. 18 15 51 42
Canada 10 8 26 21
---------- ------- -------- --------
Total Retail 28 23 77 63
---------- ------- -------- --------
Total Before Corporate 359 330 1,075 965
Corporate 11 13 31 37
---------- ------- -------- --------
Total $ 370 $ 343 $1,106 $1,002
========== ======= ======== ========

Operating Highlights:
Refining:
Throughput Margin per Barrel $ 13.11 $ 9.94 $10.80 $13.39

Operating Costs per Barrel:
Refining Operating Expenses $ 4.96 $ 3.96 $ 4.72 $ 3.87
Depreciation and
Amortization 1.39 1.17 1.38 1.18
---------- ------- -------- --------
Total Operating Costs per
Barrel $ 6.35 $ 5.13 $ 6.10 $ 5.05
========== ======= ======== ========

Throughput Volumes (Mbbls per
Day):
Feedstocks:
Heavy Sour Crude 565 594 580 633
Medium/Light Sour Crude 670 663 680 643
Acidic Sweet Crude 75 79 76 83
Sweet Crude 578 760 622 728
Residuals 282 265 242 261
Other Feedstocks 136 181 141 161
---------- ------- -------- --------
Total Feedstocks 2,306 2,542 2,341 2,509
Blendstocks and Other 281 302 306 286
---------- ------- -------- --------
Total Throughput
Volumes 2,587 2,844 2,647 2,795
========== ======= ======== ========

Yields (Mbbls per Day):
Gasolines and
Blendstocks 1,136 1,324 1,197 1,283
Distillates 906 932 920 919
Petrochemicals 66 84 74 83
Other Products (6) 464 495 449 507
---------- ------- -------- --------
Total Yields 2,572 2,835 2,640 2,792
========== ======= ======== ========

VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
EARNINGS RELEASE
(Millions of Dollars, Except per Share, per Barrel, and per Gallon
Amounts)
(Unaudited)


Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended
September 30, September 30,
------------------ -----------------
2008 2007 2008 2007
--------- -------- -------- --------
Refining Operating Highlights by
Region (7):
Gulf Coast:
Operating Income (3) $ 1,117 $ 763 $ 2,597 $ 3,781

Throughput Volumes (Mbbls per
Day) 1,324 1,527 1,399 1,532

Throughput Margin per Barrel $ 13.21 $10.49 $ 12.01 $ 13.80

Operating Costs per Barrel:
Refining Operating Expenses $ 5.17 $ 3.98 $ 4.73 $ 3.69
Depreciation and
Amortization 1.37 1.08 1.30 1.06
--------- -------- -------- --------
Total Operating Costs per
Barrel $ 6.54 $ 5.06 $ 6.03 $ 4.75
========= ======== ======== ========

Mid-Continent (1):
Operating Income $ 295 $ 233 $ 513 $ 807

Throughput Volumes (Mbbls per
Day) 426 445 426 391

Throughput Margin per Barrel $ 13.23 $10.35 $ 9.94 $ 13.10

Operating Costs per Barrel:
Refining Operating Expenses $ 4.42 $ 3.52 $ 4.25 $ 4.17
Depreciation and
Amortization 1.28 1.15 1.29 1.36
--------- -------- -------- --------
Total Operating Costs per
Barrel $ 5.70 $ 4.67 $ 5.54 $ 5.53
========= ======== ======== ========

Northeast:
Operating Income $ 387 $ 147 $ 357 $ 959

Throughput Volumes (Mbbls per
Day) 552 566 545 572

Throughput Margin per Barrel $ 13.53 $ 8.21 $ 8.50 $ 11.22

Operating Costs per Barrel:
Refining Operating Expenses $ 4.55 $ 4.11 $ 4.69 $ 3.83
Depreciation and
Amortization 1.36 1.27 1.42 1.25
--------- -------- -------- --------
Total Operating Costs per
Barrel $ 5.91 $ 5.38 $ 6.11 $ 5.08
========= ======== ======== ========

West Coast:
Operating Income $ 114 $ 116 $ 249 $ 815

Throughput Volumes (Mbbls per
Day) 285 306 277 300

Throughput Margin per Barrel $ 11.60 $ 9.82 $ 10.55 $ 15.84

Operating Costs per Barrel:
Refining Operating Expenses $ 5.55 $ 4.24 $ 5.51 $ 4.48
Depreciation and
Amortization 1.70 1.45 1.76 1.42
--------- -------- -------- --------
Total Operating Costs per
Barrel $ 7.25 $ 5.69 $ 7.27 $ 5.90
========= ======== ======== ========

VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
EARNINGS RELEASE
(Millions of Dollars, Except per Share, per Barrel, and per Gallon
Amounts)
(Unaudited)


Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended
September 30, September 30,
------------------ -----------------
2008 2007 2008 2007
---------- ------- --------- -------
Retail - U.S.:
Company-Operated Fuel Sites
(Average) 984 956 961 959
Fuel Volumes (Gallons per Day
per Site) 4,946 5,068 4,997 5,019
Fuel Margin per Gallon $ 0.273 $0.197 $ 0.173 $0.174
Merchandise Sales $ 292 $ 272 $ 819 $ 774
Merchandise Margin (Percentage
of Sales) 29.8% 29.7% 30.0% 29.9%
Margin on Miscellaneous Sales $ 24 $ 26 $ 74 $ 75
Selling Expenses $ 134 $ 125 $ 375 $ 377

Retail - Canada:
Fuel Volumes (Thousand Gallons
per Day) 3,126 3,180 3,169 3,231
Fuel Margin per Gallon $ 0.261 $0.238 $ 0.278 $0.235
Merchandise Sales $ 56 $ 53 $ 156 $ 137
Merchandise Margin (Percentage
of Sales) 28.6% 26.9% 28.5% 28.1%
Margin on Miscellaneous Sales $ 10 $ 9 $ 29 $ 27
Selling Expenses $ 67 $ 65 $ 204 $ 184

Average Market Reference Prices
and Differentials
(Dollars per Barrel):
Feedstocks (at U.S. Gulf
Coast, except as Noted):
West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
Crude Oil $ 117.83 $75.48 $ 113.25 $66.12
WTI Less Sour Crude Oil (8) $ 4.05 $ 3.00 $ 5.20 $ 4.00
WTI Less Mars Crude Oil $ 5.26 $ 5.93 $ 6.40 $ 4.52
WTI Less Alaska North Slope
(ANS)
Crude Oil (U.S. West Coast) $ 0.93 $(1.01) $ 0.81 $ 0.15
WTI Less Maya Crude Oil $ 11.36 $12.42 $ 16.39 $11.55

Products:
U.S. Gulf Coast:
Conventional 87 Gasoline
Less WTI $ 12.13 $12.20 $ 7.66 $17.12
No. 2 Fuel Oil Less WTI $ 19.27 $10.82 $ 19.17 $11.86
Ultra-Low-Sulfur Diesel Less
WTI $ 23.91 $16.23 $ 24.38 $18.61
Propylene Less WTI $ 7.21 $ 8.75 $ (0.11) $13.88
U.S. Mid-Continent:
Conventional 87 Gasoline
Less WTI $ 8.62 $20.17 $ 6.49 $22.13
Low-Sulfur Diesel Less WTI $ 25.55 $22.41 $ 25.10 $22.78
U.S. Northeast:
Conventional 87 Gasoline
Less WTI $ 5.80 $11.72 $ 4.40 $16.63
No. 2 Fuel Oil Less WTI $ 19.86 $11.72 $ 20.85 $12.83
Lube Oils Less WTI $ 89.33 $43.81 $ 51.75 $53.62
U.S. West Coast:
CARBOB 87 Gasoline Less ANS $ 12.21 $14.22 $ 12.95 $27.18
CARB Diesel Less ANS $ 23.87 $17.86 $ 25.39 $23.52

VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
EARNINGS RELEASE
(Millions of Dollars, Except per Share, per Barrel, and per Gallon
Amounts)
(Unaudited)


(1) Effective July 1, 2007, Valero Energy Corporation (Valero) sold
its Lima Refinery to Husky Refining Company, a wholly owned
subsidiary of Husky Energy Inc. The results of operations of the
Lima Refinery for the six months of 2007 prior to its sale are
reported as discontinued operations in the Statement of Income
Data, and all refining operating highlights, both consolidated
and for the Mid-Continent region, presented in this earnings
release exclude the Lima Refinery. The sale resulted in a pre-tax
gain of $827 million ($426 million after tax), which is included
in "Income from Discontinued Operations, Net of Income Taxes" in
the Statement of Income for the three and nine months ended
September 30, 2007.

(2) Includes excise taxes on sales by Valero's U.S. retail system of
$207 million and $207 million for the three months ended
September 30, 2008 and 2007, respectively, and $605 million and
$606 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2008 and
2007, respectively.

(3) Effective July 1, 2008, Valero sold its Krotz Springs Refinery to
Alon Refining Krotz Springs, Inc. (Alon), a subsidiary of Alon
USA Energy, Inc. The nature and significance of Valero's post-
closing participation in an offtake agreement with Alon
represents a continuation of activities with the Krotz Springs
Refinery for accounting purposes, and as such the results of
operations related to the Krotz Springs Refinery have not been
presented as discontinued operations in the Statement of Income
Data for any of the periods presented, and all refining operating
highlights, both consolidated and for the Gulf Coast region,
presented in this earnings release include the Krotz Springs
Refinery for all periods presented. The pre-tax gain of $305
million on the sale of the Krotz Springs Refinery is included in
the Gulf Coast operating income for the three and nine months
ended September 30, 2008.

(4) "Other Income, Net" for the three and nine months ended September
30, 2007 includes a $91 million pre-tax gain resulting from the
repayment of a loan by a foreign subsidiary.

(5) The calculation of earnings per common share assuming dilution for
the three and nine months ended September 30, 2007 includes the
effect of a $94 million deduction from net income representing
cash paid in the third quarter of 2007 in final settlement of an
accelerated share repurchase program entered into in the second
quarter of 2007.

(6) Primarily includes gas oils, No. 6 fuel oil, petroleum coke, and
asphalt.

(7) The regions reflected herein contain the following refineries:
Gulf Coast - Corpus Christi East, Corpus Christi West, Texas
City, Houston, Three Rivers, Krotz Springs (for periods prior to
its sale effective July 1, 2008), St. Charles, Aruba, and Port
Arthur Refineries; Mid-Continent - McKee, Ardmore, and Memphis
Refineries; Northeast - Quebec City, Paulsboro, and Delaware City
Refineries; and West Coast - Benicia and Wilmington Refineries.

(8) The market reference differential for sour crude oil is based on
50% Arab Medium and 50% Arab Light posted prices.

23 octubre 2008

ConocoPhillips Reports Third-Quarter Net Income of $5.2 Billion or $3.39 Per Share

HOUSTON --(Business Wire)-- -- ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP):

Earnings at a glance

Third Quarter Nine Months
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 2007 2008 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Net income $5,188 million 3,673 million $14,766 million 7,520 million
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Diluted
income per
share $3.39 2.23 $9.50 4.54
----------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Earnings
adjusted
for the
second-
quarter
2007
Venezuela
impairment$5,188 million 3,673 million $14,766 million 12,032 million
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Diluted
earnings
per share
adjusted
for the
second-
quarter
2007
Venezuela
impairment$3.39 2.23 $9.50 7.26
----------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Revenues $70.0 billion 46.1 billion $196.3 billion 134.8 billion
----------------------------------------------------------------------

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) today reported third-quarter net income of $5,188 million, or $3.39 per share. This compared with $3,673 million, or $2.23 per share, for the same quarter in 2007. Revenues were $70.0 billion, versus $46.1 billion a year ago.

"Our U.S. operations were impacted by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike during the quarter, but despite these impacts, our overall operating performance was good," said Jim Mulva, chairman and chief executive officer. "Our upstream business continued to benefit from the strong commodity price environment and we produced 2.2 million BOE per day, including an estimated 0.4 million BOE per day from our LUKOIL Investment segment. In our downstream business, we benefited from stronger global marketing margins and were able to slightly improve our overall realized refining margin in spite of a decrease in global refining crack spreads. Our worldwide refining crude oil capacity utilization rate was 87 percent, reflecting the impact of hurricane-related downtime.

"We generated $7.5 billion of cash from operations during the quarter. This enabled us to invest $4.0 billion in exploring for and developing oil and natural gas supplies, enhancing refining capabilities, and fostering emerging technologies. It also enabled us to repurchase $2.5 billion of ConocoPhillips common stock and pay $0.7 billion in dividends. We ended the quarter with debt of $22.1 billion and a debt-to-capital ratio of 19 percent."

The results for ConocoPhillips' business segments follow.

Exploration and Production (E&P)

Third-quarter financial results: E&P third-quarter net income was $3,928 million, compared with $3,999 million in the previous quarter and $2,082 million in the third quarter of 2007.

The decrease from the second quarter of 2008 was primarily due to lower crude oil and natural gas prices, partially offset by a net benefit from asset rationalization efforts, favorable foreign exchange impacts, and lower production taxes. The increase from the third quarter of 2007 was primarily due to higher commodity prices, partially offset by higher production taxes, increased operating costs, and lower volumes.

Daily production from the E&P segment, including Canadian Syncrude, averaged 1.75 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, similar to both the previous quarter and the third quarter of 2007. When compared with the previous quarter, production from new developments in the United Kingdom, Russia and Norway largely offset planned and unplanned downtime, which included hurricane disruptions in the U.S. Lower 48, as well as normal field decline. The production impact from hurricane disruptions was approximately 17,000 BOE per day.

When compared with the third quarter of 2007, production from new developments in the United Kingdom, Russia, Indonesia, Norway and Canada was slightly less than impacts from normal field decline, unplanned downtime, and production sharing contracts.

Before-tax exploration expenses were $267 million in the third quarter of 2008, compared with $288 million in the previous quarter and $218 million in the third quarter of 2007.

Nine-month financial results: E&P net income for the first nine months of 2008 was $10,814 million, compared with $2,007 million during the first nine months of 2007. Nine-month 2007 earnings adjusted for the Venezuela impairment were $6,519 million. The increase from the nine-month 2007 adjusted earnings was primarily due to higher commodity prices, partially offset by higher production taxes, lower volumes, increased operating costs, and a lower net benefit from asset rationalization efforts.

Midstream

Third-quarter financial results: Midstream third-quarter net income was $173 million, compared with $162 million in the previous quarter and $104 million in the third quarter of 2007. The increases from the previous quarter and the third quarter of 2007 were primarily due to higher realized natural gas liquids prices, partially offset by lower volumes largely due to hurricane disruptions, as well as higher operating costs.

Nine-month financial results: Midstream net income for the first nine months of 2008 was $472 million, compared with $291 million in 2007. The increase was primarily due to higher realized natural gas liquids prices, partially offset by higher operating costs.

Refining and Marketing (R&M)

Third-quarter financial results: R&M net income was $849 million in the third quarter, compared with $664 million in the previous quarter and $1,307 million in the third quarter of 2007.

The increase in net income from the previous quarter was primarily due to improved global realized marketing margins and lower turnaround costs, which were partially offset by lower refining volumes. The decrease in net income from the third quarter of 2007 was primarily due to a lower net benefit from the company's asset rationalization efforts, the absence of a third-quarter 2007 German tax legislation benefit, and lower refining volumes.

The U.S. realized refining margin for the third quarter was lower than the previous quarter as the benefit from higher clean product yields and improved margins for secondary products was more than offset by the narrowing of heavy crude differentials and inventory impacts related to the decrease in crude and refined product prices. The international realized refining margin was higher than the previous quarter due to the reduction of temporary inventory builds and improved clean product yields.

The domestic refining crude oil capacity utilization rate for the third quarter was 90 percent, a 4 percent decrease from the previous quarter. The decrease was primarily due to hurricane impacts of approximately 6 percent, partially offset by lower turnaround activity. The international crude oil capacity utilization rate was 75 percent, down from 88 percent in the previous quarter as weak hydro-skimming margins continued to impact utilization at the company's Wilhelmshaven, Germany, refinery.

Worldwide, R&M's refining crude oil capacity utilization rate was 87 percent, compared with 93 percent the previous quarter and 94 percent in the third quarter of 2007. Before-tax turnaround costs were $73 million in the third quarter of 2008, compared with $170 million in the previous quarter and $27 million in the third quarter of 2007.

Nine-month financial results: R&M net income for the first nine months of 2008 was $2,033 million, compared with $4,801 million in 2007. The decrease was primarily due to significantly lower U.S. refining margins, as well as lower refining volumes, a reduced net benefit from the company's asset rationalization efforts, the absence of the German tax legislation benefit, and higher operating costs. These decreases were partially offset by higher global marketing margins.

LUKOIL Investment

Third-quarter financial results: LUKOIL Investment segment net income for the third quarter was $438 million, compared with $774 million in the previous quarter and $387 million in the third quarter of 2007. The results include ConocoPhillips' estimate of its equity share of OAO LUKOIL's (LUKOIL) income for the third quarter based on market indicators and LUKOIL's publicly available operating results. The decrease in net income from the previous quarter was primarily due to lower estimated volumes and realized prices, as well as higher estimated operating costs and taxes. The increase in net income from the third quarter of 2007 was primarily due to higher estimated realized prices, partially offset by higher estimated taxes and operating costs, as well as lower estimated volumes.

For the third quarter of 2008, ConocoPhillips estimated its equity share of LUKOIL production was 422,000 BOE per day and its share of LUKOIL daily refining crude oil throughput was 228,000 barrels per day.

Nine-month financial results: Net income for the first nine months of 2008 was $1,922 million, compared with $1,169 million in 2007. The increase was primarily due to higher estimated realized prices, partially offset by higher estimated taxes and operating costs, as well as lower estimated volumes.

Chemicals

Third-quarter financial results: Chemicals net income was $46 million in the third quarter, compared with $18 million in the previous quarter and $110 million in the third quarter of 2007. The increase from the previous quarter was primarily due to higher olefins and polyolefins margins, partially offset by lower aromatics and styrenics margins, costs associated with the decommissioning of an asset, and hurricane impacts. The decrease from the third quarter of 2007 was primarily due to higher utility costs and lower aromatics and styrenics margins.

Nine-month financial results: Net income for the first nine months of 2008 was $116 million, compared with $260 million in 2007. The decrease was primarily due to higher utility costs and lower aromatics and styrenics margins.

Emerging Businesses

Emerging Businesses segment net income was $35 million in the third quarter, compared with $8 million in the previous quarter and $3 million in the third quarter of 2007. The increases from the previous quarter and the third quarter of 2007 were primarily due to higher international power generation results.

Corporate and Other

Third-quarter Corporate expenses were $281 million after-tax, compared with $186 million in the previous quarter and $320 million in the third quarter of 2007. The increase from the previous quarter was primarily due to foreign exchange losses. The decrease from the third quarter of 2007 was primarily due to lower net interest expense and the absence of acquisition-related costs, partially offset by foreign exchange losses. The number of weighted-average diluted shares outstanding during the third quarter was 1,528 million.

The company's effective tax rate for the quarter was 45 percent. This compared with 44 percent in the previous quarter and 42 percent in the third quarter of 2007.

Outlook

Mr. Mulva concluded:

"We recently announced our plan to create a long-term Australasian natural gas business with Origin Energy focused on coalbed methane production and liquefied natural gas (LNG) processing and sales. This joint venture leverages ConocoPhillips' strengths and experience in project management; coalbed methane; and LNG technology, operations and marketing. It also better balances ConocoPhillips' oil and gas resource mix, and our long-term production growth is expected to benefit from a steady, secure source of resource additions. With the transaction expected to close in the fourth quarter, we look forward to working with Origin in delivering a valuable energy resource to customers.

"We also recently announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding with JSC National Company KazMunayGas (KMG) and Mubadala Development Company PJSC to negotiate terms for the exploration and development of the 'N' Block, located offshore Kazakhstan, under a new subsoil use contract. ConocoPhillips looks forward to establishing a major new exploration presence in Kazakhstan, and we are pleased to participate with KMG and Mubadala in this world-class exploration project.

"Downstream, we were pleased to receive government approval in early September on a key permit associated with the expansion of the Wood River refinery, a facility located in Roxana, Ill., that is jointly owned by ConocoPhillips and EnCana Corporation. Upon completion, the expansion project will supply an additional 3.2 million gallons per day of clean gasoline and diesel in the region. In addition, the project provides significant environmental benefits, including a 95 percent reduction in sulfur dioxide emissions and a 25 percent reduction in nitrogen oxide emissions.

"In terms of the fourth quarter, we anticipate the company's E&P segment production will be higher than the third quarter. We expect full-year 2008 production to be slightly below 1.8 million BOE per day due to the impact of higher prices on production-sharing-contract volumes and lost production associated with Hurricanes Gustav and Ike. We anticipate exploration expenses to be in the range of $400 million for the quarter.

"In our downstream business, the fourth-quarter crude oil capacity utilization rate is expected to be in the mid-90-percent range. Turnaround costs are anticipated to be approximately $75 million before-tax for the quarter.

"Share repurchases have continued into the fourth quarter. Through the end of October, we will have purchased approximately $8 billion of our shares in 2008 under the previously announced program. Share repurchase levels for the balance of the year will depend on market conditions and capital commitments. We will update the investment community in mid-December on the anticipated level of share repurchases for the fourth quarter, along with 2009 capital expenditure and share repurchase plans."

ConocoPhillips is an international, integrated energy company with interests around the world. Headquartered in Houston, the company had approximately 33,600 employees, $185 billion of assets, and $262 billion of annualized revenues as of September 30, 2008. For more information, go to www.conocophillips.com. ConocoPhillips' quarterly conference call is scheduled for 11 a.m. Eastern time today. To listen to the conference call and to view related presentation materials, go to www.conocophillips.com and click on the "Investor Information" link. For detailed supplemental information, go to www.conocophillips.com/investor/financial_reports/earnings_reports

06 julio 2008

DOW THEORY - Análisis técnico: La teoría de Dow

The Dow theory has been around for almost 100 years. Developed by Charles Dow and refined by William Hamilton, many of the ideas put forward by these two men have become axioms of Wall Street.

Background:

Charles Dow developed the Dow theory from his analysis of market price action in the late 19th. Century. Until his death in 1902, Dow was part owner as well as editor of the Wall Street Journal. Even though Charles Dow is credited with initiating Dow theory, it was S.A. Nelson and William Hamilton who later refined the theory into what it is today. In 1932 Robert Rhea further refined the analysis. Rhea studied and deciphered some 252 editorials through which Dow and Hamilton conveyed their thoughts on the market.

Main Assumptions:

1. Manipulation of the primary trend as not being possible is the primary assumption of the Dow theory. Hamilton also believed that while individual stocks could be influenced it would be virtually impossible to manipulate the market as a whole.

2. Averages discount everything. This assumption means that the markets reflect all known information. Everything there is to know is already reflected in the markets through price. Price represents the sum total of all the hopes, fears and expectations of all participants. The un-expected will occur, but usually this will affect the short-term trend. The primary trend will remain unaffected. Hamilton noted that sometimes the market would react negatively to good news. For Hamilton the reason was simple: the markets look ahead, this explains the old Wall Street axiom "buy on the rumor and sell on the news".

Even though the Dow Theory is not meant for short-term trading, it can still add value for traders. Thus no matter what your time frame, it always helps to be able to identify the primary trend. According to Hamilton those who successfully applied the Dow Theory rarely traded on too regular a basis. Hamilton and Dow were not concerned with the risks involved in getting exact tops and bottoms. Their main concern was catching large moves. They advised the close study of the markets on a daily basis, but they also sought to minimize the effects of random movements and recommended concentration on the primary trend.

Price Movement:

Dow and Hamilton identified three types of price movement for the Dow Jones Industrial and Rail averages:

A. Primary movements
B. Secondary movements
C. Daily fluctuations

A. Primary moves last from a few months to many years and represent the broad underlying trend of the market.
B. Secondary or reaction movements last for a few weeks to many months and move counter to the primary trend.

B. Daily fluctuations can move with or against the primary trend and last from a few hours to a few days, but usually not more than a week.

Primary movements, as mentioned, represent the broad underlying trend. These actions are typically referred to as BULL or BEAR trends.

Bull means buying or positive trends and Bear means negative or selling trends. Once the primary trend has been identified, it will remain in effect until proven otherwise. Hamilton believed that the length and the duration of the trend were largely undeterminable. Many traders and investors get hung up on price and time targets. The reality of the situation is that nobody knows where and when the primary trend will end.

The objective of Dow theory is to utilize what we do know, not to haphazardly guess about what we do not. Through a set of guidelines. Dow theory enables investors to identify the primary trend and invest accordingly. Trying to predict the length and duration of the trend is an exercise in futility. Success according to Hamilton and Dow is measured by the ability to identify the primary trend and stay with it.

Secondary movements run counter to the primary trend and are reactionary in nature. In a bull market a secondary move is considered a correction. In a bear market, secondary moves are sometimes called reaction rallies. Hamilton characterized secondary moves as a necessary phenomenon to combat excessive speculation. Corrections and counter moves kept speculators in check and added a healthy dose of guess work to market movements. Because of their complexity and deceptive nature,

secondary movements require extra careful study and analysis. He discovered investors often mistake a secondary move as the beginning of a new primary trend.

Daily fluctuations, while important when viewed as a group, can be dangerous and unreliable individually. getting too caught up in the movement of one or two days can lead to hasty decisions that are based on emotion. To invest successfully it is vitally important to keep the whole picture in mind when analyzing daily price movements. In general they agreed the study of daily price action can add valuable insight, but only when taken in greater context.

The Three Stages of Primary Bull Markets and Primary Bear Markets.

Hamilton identified three stages to both primary bull and primary bear markets. The stages relate as much to the psychological state of the market as to the movement of prices.

Primary Bull Market

Stage 1. Accumulation

Hamilton noted that the first stage of a bull market was largely indistinguishable from the last reaction rally in a bear market. Pessimism, which was excessive at the end of the bear market, still reigns at the beginning of a bull market. In the first stage of a bull market, stocks begin to find a bottom and quietly firm up. After the first leg peaks and starts to head down, the bears come out proclaiming that the bear market is not over. It is at this stage that careful analysis is warranted to determine if the decline is a secondary movement. If is a secondary move, then the low forms above the previous low, a quiet period will ensue as the market firms and then an advance will begin. When the previous peak is surpassed, the beginning of the second leg and a primary bull will be confirmed.

Stage 2. Movement With Strength

The second stage of a primary bull market is usually the longest, and sees the largest advance in prices. It is a period marked by improving business conditions and increased valuations in stocks. This is considered the easiest stage to make profit as participation is broad and the trend followers begin to participate.

Stage 3. Excess

Marked by excess speculation and the appearance of inflationary pressures. During the third and final stage, the public is fully involved in the market, valuations are excessive and confidence is extraordinarily high.

Primary Bear Market

Stage 1. Distribution

Just as accumulation is the hallmark of the first stage of a primary bull market, distribution marks the beginning of a bear market. As the "smart money" begins to realise that business conditions are not quite as good as once thought, and thus they begin to sell stock. There is little in the headlines to indicate a bear market is at hand and general business conditions remain good. However stocks begin to lose their lustre and the decline begins to take hand. After a moderate decline, there is a reaction rally that retraces a portion of the decline. Hamilton noted that reaction rallies during a bear market were quite swift and sharp. This quick and sudden movement would invigorate the bulls to proclaim the bull market alive and well. However the reaction high of the secondary move would form and be lower than the previous high. After making a lower high, a break below the previous low, would confirm that this was the second stage of a bear market.

Stage 2. Movement With Strength

As with the primary bull market stage two of a primary bear market provides the largest move. This is when the trend has been identified as down and business conditions begin to deteriorate. Earnings estimates are reduced, shortfalls occur, profit margins shrink and revenues fall.

Stage 3. Despair

At the final stage of a bear market all hope is lost and stocks are frowned upon. Valuations are low, but the selling continues as participants seek to sell no matter what. The news from corporate America is bad, the economic outlook is bleak and no buyers are to be found. The market will continue to decline until all the bad news is fully priced into the stocks. Once stocks fully reflect the worst possible outcome, the cycle begins again.

Signals

Identification Of The Trend

The first step in the identifying the primary trend is to analyze the individual trend of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transport Average. Hamilton used peak and trough analysis to ascertain the identity of the trend. An uptrend is defined by prices that form a series of rising peaks and rising troughs [higher highs and higher lows]. In contrast, a downtrend is defined by prices that form a series of declining peaks and declining troughs [lower highs and lower lows].

Once the trend has been identified, it is assumed valid until proven otherwise. A downtrend is considered valid until a higher low forms

and the ensuing advance off the higher low surpasses the previous reaction high. Conversely, an uptrend is considered in place until a lower low forms.

Averages Must Confirm

Hamilton and Dow stressed that for a primary trend or sell signal to be valid, both the Dow Jones Industrial and The Transport averages must confirm each other. For example if one average records a new high or new low, then the other must soon follow for a Dow theory signal to be considered valid.

Volume

Though Hamilton did analyze statistics, price action was the ultimate determinant. Volume is more important when confirming the strength of advances and can also help to identify potential reversals. Hamilton thought that volume should increase in the direction of the primary trend. For example in a primary bull market, volume should be heavier on advances than during corrections. The opposite is true in a primary bear market. Volume should increase on the declines and decrease during the reaction rallies. Thus by analysing the reaction rallies and corrections, it is possible to judge the underlying strength of the primary trend.

Trading Ranges

In his commentaries over the years, Hamilton referred many times to "lines". Lines are horizontal lines that form trading ranges. Trading ranges develop when the averages move sideways over a period of time and make it possible to draw horizontal lines connecting the tops and the bottoms. These trading ranges indicate either accumulation or distrib-tion, but is was virtually impossible to tell which until there was a clear break to the upside or the downside.

Conclusion

The goal of Dow and Hamilton was to identify the primary trend and catch the big moves up and be out of the market the rest of the time. They well understood that the market was influenced by emotion and prone to over-reaction, both up and down. With this in mind, they concentrated on identification and following the trend.

Dow theory [or set of assumptions] helps investors identify facts. It can form an excellent basis for analysis and has become the cornerstone for many professional traders in understanding market movement. Hamilton and Dow believed that success in the markets required serious study and analysis. They realized that success was a great thing, but also realized that failure, while painful, should be looked upon as learning experiences.

Technical analysis is an art form and the eye and mind grow keener with practice. Study both success and failure with an eye to the future.

24 febrero 2008

El superávit anual sube a 23.368 millones a pesar de la rebaja fiscal

Los 23.368 millones de superávit del 2007 se desglosan en 13.526 millones del Estado (el 1,29% del PIB) y otros 13.085 de la Seguridad Social (el 1,25%). Por primera vez, el Estado obtuvo un mejor registro que la Seguridad Social. Las autonomías anotaron un déficit de 1.745 millones y los ayuntamientos, de 1.498.

Los ingresos del Estado registraron un fuerte aumento del IRPF (del 15,7%) y del impuesto sobre sociedades (del 20,5%).

En el conjunto de la legislatura, las Administraciones Públicas han acumulado un superávit de 46.803 millones de euros que han servido para reducir la deuda pública desde un registro del 48,7% del PIB, en el 2003, hasta el 36,2% a finales del 2007.

El superávit de la Seguridad Social se destinará a engrosar el fondo de reserva de las pensiones (que ya suma 50.909 millones de euros, el 5% del PIB, equivalente al pago de nueve meses de prestaciones).

Pumpido se indigna por el fallo sobre 'los Albertos'

El fiscal general discrepa "total, radical y profundamente" de la exoneración.

La sentencia del Tribunal Constitucional que anula la condena a Alberto Cortina y Alberto Alcocer, los primos conocidos como los Albertos, provocó ayer una cascada de reacciones. El fiscal general del Estado, Cándido Conde-Pumpido, no escondió su "total, radical y absoluta" discrepancia con el fallo. La fiscalía ha defendido ante la Audiencia de Madrid, el Tribunal Supremo y el Constitucional la condena de los Albertos por haber estafado a sus socios cuando vendieron los terrenos de Urbanor en los que se construyeron las Torres KIO de Madrid. Por ello, apoyó la sentencia del Supremo que les condenó a tres años y cuatro meses de prisión por estafa y falsedad en documento mercantil. "Es un fallo con todas las garantías y no es irrazonable", agregó el jurista.

María Teresa Fernández de la Vega, tras acatar el fallo, reconoció que la sentencia del Alto Tribunal "puede provocar una cierta inquietud porque parece que puede haber dos tipos de justicia".

20 febrero 2008

Articulos para novatos en bolsa

Mi colección de artículos para novatos en bolsa. Me dicen esto de ellos:

Muy buena colección de artículos para empezar en bolsa, los novatos en bolsa necesitamos cosas así que nos ayuden a entender la bolsa de verdad.

A mí me han gustado mucho Primeras experiencias en bolsa, Inversión, especulación, ludopatía y ruina y Análisis fundamental, capítulo primero, pero todos son buenos para novatos en bolsa como yo.

PER 200 en Fersa

Fersa estrenó su salida al continuo con un desplome, cayendo de más de 12€ a menos de 8€ en poco más de una semana. Por entonces, escribí un artículo titulado "Fersa, o como algunos nunca aprenden"... Posteriormente se recuperó, pero ahora ha caído con más fuerza.

No estoy vendido de Fersa, así que no tengo motivos para alegrarme de que Fersa caiga. No le deseo el mal a quienes compran un PER de Fersa estratosférico... sólo les aviso de lo que les puede pasar.

Titulizacion de hipotecas subprime y crisis subprime

Una hipoteca subprime es darle una hipoteca de 240.000 euros a una pareja de mileuristas con contrato temporal para que se compren una casa de 250.000 euros, pagando un interés bajo los dos primeros años. Eso sí, la hipoteca subía luego al euribor + 8%...

El problema es la contabilización de las pérdidas: Contabilizar las hipotecas subprime "mark-to-market" es complicado porque no hay liquidez en el mercado de titulizaciones de hipotecas subprime, y podría llevar a provisiones demasiado duras que dañaran excesivamente a las entidades, cuando el objetivo de provisionar es prevenir daños y no provocarlos. Pero claro, si las titulizaciones de hipotecas subprime se contabilizan "mark-to-model", eso abre la mano a que hagan lo que les dé la gana...

19 febrero 2008

La burbuja inmobiliaria se pone fea

La burbuja inmobiliaria se pone fea, muy fea... pero los bancos han sabido soltar lastre a tiempo, en máximos. Son las cajas las que lo tienen peor. Y Astroc, y Colonial, y Contsa, y Llanera, Habitat...

Hipotecas multidivisa en yenes

Aun está muy de moda en algunos sitios el tema de las hipotecas multidivisas en general, y en yenes en particular, así que voy a tocar el tema... Al fin y al cabo, es un tema que siento como muy personal, porque yo me quise sacar una hipoteca multidivisa en yenes cuando me compré mi piso, en el 99... y cuando cambié el préstamo a otra entidad, en el 2001 ¿Y por qué no lo hice? Pues tropecé con el principal problema que tienen las hipotecas multidivisas: convencer a mi mujer!!

Fondos de inversion: Lo que el banco no dice

Descripción de algunas malas prácticas que algunos gestores de fondos podrían, o no, estar realizando en provecho propio y en detrimento de sus partícipes. En Fondo-Timo, se dedican a dar contrapartida al banco, permiten el late-trading, generan comisiones para el banco y se comen algunas malas operaciones de Fondo-VIP... todo ello, aderezado con una gestión mediocre por culpa del benchmarking.

19 octubre 2007

Anuncian pacto para proteger los derechos de autor en la red

Los gigantes de la comunicación norteamericanos, entre los que destacan Viacom, Walt Disney y Microsoft, acordaron hoy aplicar una serie de directrices para proteger los derechos de autor en Internet.

Las empresas, entre las que también figuran los canales estadounidenses CBS y NBC, además de Fox y la red social MySpace, alcanzaron un pacto por el que se comprometen a aplicar la tecnología necesaria para eliminar los contenidos que atentan contra los derechos de autor en Internet.

Los participantes en el pacto han destacado la importancia de la red como lugar de creación y de intercambio de obras audiovisuales, un sector en el que se centran buena parte de sus iniciativas, aunque entre las empresas de comunicación firmantes no figura Google, propietaria de la mayor página de intercambio de vídeo YouTube.

Según un comunicado emitido por Viacom, los gigantes de la comunicación pretenden así seguir innovando en los contenidos que ofrecen en línea, entre los que destacan los desarrollados por los propios usuarios, pero 'respetando siempre la propiedad intelectual de los propietarios de ese contenido'.

'La colaboración entre todos nosotros y la ayuda de las nuevas tecnologías pueden allanar el camino hacia un mayor crecimiento en la disponibilidad de vídeos en la red de modo que sea bueno para los consumidores y los propietarios de los derechos de autor', aseguró en el mismo comunicado el presidente de Walt Disney, Bob Iger.

Las directrices que han acordado aplicar cuentan con el objetivo de llevar a la destrucción el material ilegítimo que los usuarios hayan podido introducir en la red y de bloquear cualquier material de este tipo antes de que el público tenga acceso al mismo.

Las empresas han asegurado que lucharán contra la piratería en la red eliminando asimismo de sus páginas web cualquier enlace que lleve a portales electrónicos dedicados al intercambio de material pirateado.

Los responsables del pacto reconocen la importancia que juega la red como lugar de intercambio de creaciones audiovisuales, algo que, al mismo tiempo, aseguran que ha multiplicado el número de delitos contra los derechos de autor.

'Estos principios son un paso muy importante para establecer Internet como una gran plataforma para el contenido audiovisual, una que permita innovar y preservar iniciativas para todos los creadores, grandes y pequeños, respetando los derechos de autor', aseguró en el comunicado el consejero delegado de Microsoft, Steve Ballmer.

Mi comentario: Esto huele que apesta a chanchullo para manipular Internet, con la excusa de proteger los derechos de autor lo que pretenden es meter la censura donde quieran.

18 octubre 2007

Medtronic Inc (MDT) - ¿Buena oportunidad a largo plazo?

Esta es una vieja conocida nuestra. Líder mundial de instrumental médico, especialmente conocida por sus aparatos para el corazón. Comprada en Noviembre de 2006 a $48,50 y vendida con pena en Agosto de 2007 a $52,70 para comprar JNJ. Como ya dije, el motivo de la venta era que quería tener a toda costa JNJ y, aunque MDT me parece una inversión "obligatoria" en toda buena cartera de largo plazo, tenía que venderla porque había mucho solape entre la actividad de JNJ y MDT (JNJ también tiene división de instrumental).

En menos de dos sesiones, sus acciones han caído desde $56,33 hasta $49,44 en estos momentos. Supone un 12,23% de descenso o una pérdida de casi $7.600 millones de capitalización. En el enlace podéis leer el motivo. Básicamente, se han descubierto algunos desfibriladores defectuosos. La FDA calcula que son menos del 1% de los 268.000 implantados. Ante este descubrimiento, la compañía ha pedido a los médicos que dejen de implantarlos. Como podéis ver en el enlace, MDT estima que todo esto va a suponer un descenso máximo de los ventas de $250 millones (esto supone $57,50 millones de beneficio neto) a lo que habría que sumos otros $40 millones por otros motivos como devaluación de inventarios. En total, la compañía ha calculado que en el peor de los casos el coste directo será de $100 millones.

A estos $100 millones habría que sumarle unos cuantos más por daños de imagen que lastrarán sus ventas generales y bastantes más por conflictos legales (seguro que hay algún juicio, indemnizaciones...) Vamos a ponernos en un escenario muy malo. Supongamos que por la imagen reducen sus ventas un 5% del total del año pasado. Serían $615 millones que con un margen neto del 23% supondrían un descenso del beneficio de $141 millones. Por otro lado, tenemos 2.680 desfibriladores defectuosos. Vamos a ponernos bestias y supongamos que todos los que tengan el desfibrilador dañado merecen indemnizaciones de $2 millones. El impacto total de la noticia sobre el beneficio sería: $100 + $141 + $2.680 = $5.601 millones. Supongamos que MDT no está asegurada y que va a pagarlos ella solita.

Con todo esto, el impacto real de la noticia sería de $5.601 millones (en un escenario absolutamente malo) frente a su impacto de $7.600 millones en la cotización. A corto plazo, la caída de estos días no tiene sentido. A largo plazo, teniendo en cuenta que en el pasado ejercicio MDT generó $2.400 millones en Free Cash Flow y que la tasa de crecimiento del FCF durante la última década fue superior al 20% anual, el impacto de la moticia en la empresa a largo plazo (a menos que salgan nuevos datos que la compliquen mucho) es nulo. Así de rotundo: nulo. (Este es el escenario terrible, personalmente me sorprendería si el impacto supera los $500 millones, que ya sería 5 veces más de lo que calcula la propia empresa).

Por tanto, MDT puede ser una buena oportunidad de compra. Recordad que antes de comprar es imprescindible que analicéis vosotros mismos la empresa. Os dejo mi análisis inicial de la compañía de cuando la compré hace unos meses. Es muy posible que, como decíamos hoy en el artículo anterior, estemos ante una de esas empresas que a largo plazo haga crecer nuestro capital poco a poco, año a año.

COMPRAS: MEDTRONIC Inc. (MDT) 17 de noviembre de 2006

Por primera vez desde que inicié el blog he comprado una empresa. Llegué a ella gracias al análisis de ZMH. Ya la conocía pero nunca me había parado a analizarla. Después de tres días de leer cuentas analuales, analizar los balances y calcular los riesgos, esta misma tarde compré unas cuantas acciones. Ahora me queda un 7% de liquidez. Me gusta tener liquidez por si aparece alguna buena oportunidad. Sin ir más lejos, el lunes presenta resultados MDT. Si son peores de lo esperado y la acción cae, me quedaré sin liquidez. Ahí os dejo mi análisis.

1. DESCRIPCIÓN DE LA COMPAÑÍA

Medtronic (MDT) es líder mundial en el desarrollo y fabricación de aparatos médicos para el tratamiento de diversas enfermedades crónicas. Sus campos de trabajo son: problemas cardiacos, problemas vasculares, problemas neurológicos (parkinson, depresiones...), gástricos (acidez, obesidad...), urológicos, diabéticos, trastornos craneales y vertebrales y desarrolla sistemas de cirugía guiados por imagen. Más información sobre las áreas de negocio en el enlace.

Se fundó en 1949 en Minneapolis. Gracias MDT hoy tenemos marcapasos, ya que es su fundador quien en en 1957 desarrolló el primer marcapasos cardiaco a pilas y transportable (a lo mejor es por esto por lo que tiene un 50% de cuota de mercado de aparatos médicos para problemas de corazón). Tiene 31.000 empleados y durante el ejercicio 2006 obtuvo unas ventas record de $11.292 millones y unos beneficos (Net Income) de $2.546 millones. Su capitalización es de $56.000 millones (es la mayor empresa del sector a nivel mundial).

2. ESTRATEGIA Y POTENCIAL DE CRECIMIENTO

MDT tiene una cartera de productos diversificada a lo largo de una amplia gama de dolencias crónicas comunes. Su posición de líder en estos segmentos le coloca en una situación envidiable a la hora de tomar ventaja en las nuevas tendencias del cuidado de este tipo de dolencias. Su estrategia se centra en potenciar sus productos de marca, siendo líder indiscutible en el cuidado de la diabetes, problemas neurológicos y problemas de espina dorsal (sus ventas en estos tres segmentos son el 35% del total de las ventas de MDT. Así mismo, MDT es una de las empresas más innovadoras del sector, centrándose en enfermedades tales como la diabetes, problemas cardio-vasculares y neurológicos y siendo líder en todas ellas.

El factor clave de crecimiento es el envejecimiento de la población de los países occidentales, ya que será un factor determinante para el aumento de la demanda. Además, son productos que generan una lealtad a la marca muy elevada, con lo que es difícil que los consumidores, una vez iniciada su relación con MDT, cambién a la competencia. Lo mismo ocurría en ZMH (ver análisis).

3. RIESGOS

Como ya dijimos al analizar ZMH, dos factores externos son la clave del éxito en el sector de Cuidados de la Salud: 1) la regulación jurídica y 2) la innovación tecnológica.

La entrada de los demócratas en las Cámaras estadounidenses está causando cierta volatilidad en todo el sector por miedo a cambios en la regulación. Personalmente (esto es una opinión, no un hecho) no creo que introduzcan grandes cambios legales que puedan dañar la rentabilidad del sector a largo plazo.

Como accionistas de este tipo de empresas, debemos ser conscientes de la responsabilidad especial que tenemos con la sociedad mundial (no sólo con la de los países desarrollados). Nuestros productos pueden cambiar las vidas de millones de personas de todo el mundo aquejadas de las más múltiples dolencias y trastornos. Da lo mismo que esas personas sean consumidores. Da lo mismo que esas personas no puedan pagar los tratamientos. Ellas los necesitan y proporcionárselos es una OBLIGACIÓN de todas las empresas del sector. Es bueno para la humanidad que las empresas de Cuidados de la Salud democraticen su política comercial. Deben acordarse de África no para utilizarla como conejillo de indias, sino para ayudarla. Deben utilizar parte de los enormes beneficos anuales para investigar y tratar enfermedades raras que no son tan rentables como la diabetes, pero que destrozan las vidas de mucha gente. Sinceramente creo que esa es la única forma que tienen estas empresas de crear valor y que, a largo plazo, una estrategia comercial HUMANA es mucho más rentable. Y si como accionistas tenemos que perder un porcentaje del beneficio para destinarlo a estos fines, que así sea. Espero de todo corazón que los futuros cambios legales que afecten al sector, tengan esa dirección y no estén enfocados a un aumento de la recaudación fiscal o a un simple ahorro de los consumidores de países desarrollados .

Sobre la innovación tecnológica, la mayor competencia se registra en el terreno de la diabetes. No es raro pues es una enfermedad cada vez más habitual. MDT tiene una posición dominante y una fortaleza financiera muy superior a la de sus competidores, con lo que no deberíamos estar muy preocupados con este punto, aunque es importante seguirlo de cerca.

4. SITUACIÓN FINANCIERA Y CALIDAD

Secillamente perfecta. Sus ratios de endeudamiento y liquidez son bajísimos y mantiene esta tendencia desde hace más de una década. Su apalancamiento es de 2,27 veces. Su riesgo negocio es bajísimo (gracias a sus ya comentadas ventajas competitivas). Históricamente tiene un Net Margin del 20% y un Free Cash Flow / Sales del 20%. La tendencia en ambas medidas a mejorar sus marcas (Net Margin 2006: 22,60% y FCF/S 2006: 27,48%). Por tanto, su fortaleza financiera es inmejorable y su calidad (medida con el NM y FCF/S es altísima).

5. RENTABILIDAD

Es una empresa extremadamente rentable. Aunque tiene un apalancamiento bajísimo, su ROE medio histórico es del 21,74% siendo el del 2006 del 27,19%. Es lo que los americanos llaman una cash cow. Su inversión en CAPEX no llega a un 5% de las ventas y su FCF/S es de un 20%. Su rentabilidad por dividendo, sin embargo, es baja: 0,90%.

6. VALORACIÓN

Sus múltiplos actuales son los más bajos de los últimos 10 años. Además, si los comparamos con los del S&P, está en un momento de valoración relativa muy baja. Tengo bastante confianza en el análisis por descuentos de flujos ya que no espero caídas pronunciadas en la demanda de sus productos (su innovación tecnológica es la más puntera y la población envejece). Su situación financiera, su rentabilidad y su bajísima valoración por múltiplos provoca su prima de riesgo sea muy baja. Además, tenemos grandes fondos de inversión incrementando posiciones en el valor, lo cual siempre aporta confianza.

Por todo ello, el Precio Justo de la compañía lo sitúo en la franja de los $80 - $84 por acción. Creo que con el precio actual (sobre $48) es una oportunidad de inversión con un márgen de seguridad más que suficiente para el inversor de largo plazo.

NOTA: como toda inversión en norteamérica, el cambio de la divisa es muy importante aunque diversos estudios académicos demuestran que, a largo plazo, la incidencia de la divisa es mínima.

17 octubre 2007

Medtronic pasa "las de Caín" con sus desfibriladores

Sanidad recomienda identificar a los pacientes con electrodos implantables de la marca Sprint Fidelis y acudir al médico en caso de que se produzcan demasiadas descargas.

Reconocer errores de fabricación es un billete seguro para pleitear en Estados Unidos, sobre todo cuando ya hay cinco pacientes fallecidos como consecuencia de una rotura de los electrodos defectuosos de Medtronic. Pero no le queda otra al líder mundial en tecnología médica.

La compañía de Minneapolis ha informado que estas roturas afectan al 2,3% de los 268.000 modelos puestos en el mercado, de los que 235.000 se han implantado en pacientes para controlar su ritmo cardiaco.

La asociación de consumidores Public Citizen ya ha pedido explicaciones tanto a la empresa, que ha decidido suspender voluntariamente el suministro de esta marca y retirar los dispositivos del mercado no implantados, como a la Agencia Estadounidense del Medicamento. Y las explicaciones de los abogados también parece que han llegado a los juzgados de Minneapolis y Puerto Rico en forma de demandas.

La empresa ha contabilizado en España a 2.204 pacientes que tienen implantados estos desfibriladores defectuosos. Medtronic ha recibido por ahora la comunicación de 13 casos de roturas sin consecuencias graves.

Después de su comunicado del pasado lunes por la mañana, la Agencia Española de Medicamentos y Productos Sanitarios envió hoy a primera hora de la tarde su alerta sanitaria. Este organismo recomienda a todos los centros hospitalarios que identifiquen y acuerden una cita "en el plazo de tiempo más breve posible" con todos los pacientes en los que han implantado estos dispositivos de la marca Sprint Fidelis.

La empresa quiere con ello incrementar la detección de fracturas de los electrodos y reducir la probabilidad de fallos en los dispositivos. El 10% de las fracturas producidas afectan al conductor de alto voltaje y podrían ocasionar la imposibilidad de administrar terapia de desfibrilación.

De momento no se considera apropiada la explantación de los electrodos de forma profiláctica y la Agencia recomienda a los pacientes de que en el caso de advertir el tono de alerta del dispositivo que su cardiólogo le ha indicado, experimente descargas frecuentes o pérdida de conocimiento, "acuda rápidamente al médico para realizar un seguimiento".

Retiran un modelo de desfibrilador cardiaco tras la muerte de cinco pacientes

La compañía Medtronic suspendió ayer la distribución en todo el mundo de uno de sus equipos de desfibrilación implantables de última generación. Estos dispositivos se instalan en el corazón de enfermos con riesgo de sufrir una arritmia cardiaca. La retirada se produce después de que se detectaran defectos en un componente clave del sistema que le resta eficacia. Cinco muertes podrían estar relacionadas con este fallo. En España se ha implantado a 2.204 pacientes y aunque se han detectado alteraciones en 16 casos, no se ha producido ningún problema serio ni fallecimiento por su mal funcionamiento. La alerta no afecta a los portadores de marcapasos.
El componente que falla es un cable, un electrodo que conecta el corazón al desfibrilador. La misión de este dispositivo, similar a un marcapasos, es detectar y tratar los ritmos cardiacos anormalmente rápidos. Cuando se produce la arritmia, el desfibrilador aplica una descarga eléctrica al corazón para devolverle su ritmo normal. Los últimos desfibriladores de Medtronic incorporan un cable -el modelo «Sprint Fidelis»- de un calibre menor. Pero lo que suponía en principio un avance, se ha convertido en el origen del problema. Al reducirse la sección, el electrodo es más frágil y puede deteriorarse hasta su rotura completa. Este cable es un componente clave del dispositivo y su fractura impide que el desfibrilador se active en caso de arritmia.
Tras detectar problemas en 660 aparatos y relacionar cinco posibles muertes por este fallo, Medtronic ha realizado una retirada voluntaria de su producto. Los desfibriladores con este componente ya no se implantarán más. Pero la compañía no recomienda la retirada de los que ya se han implantado, ni siquiera una vigilancia más estrecha de los portadores. «El riesgo de una cirugía preventiva para cambiar los cables sería mayor que mantener el dispositivo. No estamos ante una alarma de gravedad», explicó ayer Javier Colás, director de Medtronic España.
La compañía ya ha avisado al Ministerio de Sanidad y a todos los hospitales españoles que han implantado este dispositivo desde el año 2004, fecha en la que empezaron a utilizarse los nuevos electrodos. Hasta la fecha, sólo se han detectado problemas en 16 pacientes españoles, ninguno de gravedad.
Luis Alonso Pulpón, presidente de la Sociedad Española de Cardiología, recordó ayer que alertas de este tipo son «relativamente frecuentes» y aseguró que «no hay razones para alarmarse». Los cardiólogos no alterarán el régimen de visitas de los portadores de los implantes. Pero están comprobando que los pacientes tratados con este modelo de desfibrilador tengan su sistema de alarma activo, «para estar atentos a cualquier problema», explicó el doctor Pulpón.

Una alarma que avisa del riesgo
Todos los desfibriladores cuentan con su propio sistema de seguridad. Cuando se produce alguna alteración en el funcionamiento avisa al paciente con una alarma acústica. La alerta también salta cuando se detecta un incremento de la resistencia de los cables, como lo que sucede cuando se deterioran. La señal eléctrica no se transmite como debería y empieza a fallar. Un primer síntoma de la degradación del cable es el envío de descargas eléctricas innecesarias al corazón.
Los problemas graves sólo aparecen cuando el paciente tiene desconectada la alarma o desoye los avisos. Esta situación es poco común, aunque algunos médicos lo recomiendan a pacientes muy preocupados y obsesionados con la alarma. Sólo si los enfermos no acuden al médico ante las alertas o el cable se rompe definitivamente el paciente estaría en riesgo. Si su corazón sufriera una fibrilación ventricular, la arritmia más peligrosa, el desfibrilador sería incapaz de detectarla y tratarla. Si no se trata esta arritmia en los primeros cinco minutos, el paciente puede morir o sufrir lesiones cerebrales irreversibles.
«Llegar a esta situación es muy poco problable, es difícil que el enfermo no acuda antes a su médico para ver si hay algún problema», aseguró Colás, Si se observan fallos en los cables, el protocolo es cambiar sólo el cable, no todo el sistema.
Las primeras dudas sobre el funcionamiento de los desfibriladores de Medtronic, el mayor fabricante, surgieron a principios de año. Robert Hauser, del Instituto del Corazón de Minneapolis, publicó un estudio donde descubrió un significativo número de pacientes que sufrían descargas eléctricas innecesarias. Estas descargas pueden ser muy dolorosas.

Retirada voluntaria
Entonces no había suficiente información para ordenar su retirada del mercado. Meses después, cuando ya se contaba con suficiente información se empezó a valorar qué hacer. Los fallos detectados no eran estadísticamente significativos, pero sí eran preocupantes.Al final, la compañía decidió retirar de forma voluntaria su producto.
La empresa optó por reducir el calibre de los cables que unen el desfibrilador al corazón en un intento por hacer más compactos y flexibles sus dispositivos. Así se podrían implantar con mayor facilidad y menos riesgo. La idea no fue buena. Se degradan con mayor facilidad que los antiguos, más gruesos.

Medtronic podría reducir ingresos tras retirada electrodo de desfibrilación

La compañía Medtronic, el mayor fabricante mundial de dispositivos médicos, advirtió hoy de que podrían reducirse sus ingresos del segundo trimestre tras la decisión de suspender voluntariamente la distribución en todo el mundo de los electrodos de desfibrilación de la familia Sprint Fidelis.

Medtronic advirtió hoy a sus inversores de que sus ingresos podrían recortarse 150 millones de dólares hasta los 250 millones de dólares en el segundo trimestre debido a esta medida.

El fabricante de dispositivos médicos decidió suspender de forma voluntaria la distribución en todo el mundo de los electrodos de desfibrilador de la familia Sprint Fidelis y recomendar a los médicos no realizar más implantes de estos dispositivos.

Esta decisión se produce tras la muerte de cinco pacientes, a los que se les rompió este electrodo.

Medtronic precisó en un comunicado que este tipo de cable se utilizaba sólo en desfibriladores o aparatos que aplican descargas eléctricas para restablecer el ritmo cardíaco normal, incluidos los llamados desfibriladores automáticos implantables (DAI) y los dispositivos para terapia de resincronización cardíaca y desfibrilación (TCR-D).

La compañía precisó que unos 268.000 pacientes llevan implantado este dispositivo y les recomendó que consulten con un médico especialista.

Sin embargo, añadió que un grupo independiente de expertos médicos asesores en calidad desaconseja el reemplazo profiláctico de los electrodos implantados, al considerar que el riesgo de retirar un electrodo o el de insertar otro es superior al bajo riesgo de fractura de un electrodo Sprint Fidelis.

Medtronic también dejó claro que la medida no afecta a las personas que llevan marcapasos.

La terapia de resincronización cardíaca es administrada mediante un dispositivo implantable para pacientes con insuficiencia cardíaca moderada o grave y asincronía ventricular.

Esta terapia hace que ambos ventrículos se contraigan al mismo tiempo y de manera más sincronizada gracias a la administración de diminutos impulsos eléctricos a través de un dispositivo implantado en el pecho y conectado a tres cables, según precisa la página web de Medtronic.

Un hora y cuarto antes del cierre de la Bolsa de Nueva York, las acciones de Medtronic bajaban un 12,39 por ciento hasta los 49,35 dólares por título.

14 octubre 2007

Estados Unidos tendrá 30 centrales nucleares más en diez años

Mientras en la Unión Europea cobra fuerza el debate sobre la importancia que la energía nuclear debe tener en el mix energético, al otro lado del océano Atlántico parecen tenerlo claro. El presidente de la NRC (regulador de seguridad nuclear de EE UU), Dale Klein, afirmó ayer que ese país dispondrá en el próximo decenio de 30 nuevas centrales nucleares. Klein pronunció ayer una conferencia en Madrid, como colofón a la reunión anual de la Asociación Internacional de Reguladores Nucleares (INRA), integrada por nueve países y presidida en esta ocasión por España.

Estados Unidos, primera potencia nuclear del mundo, tiene 104 plantas activas, muchas de las cuales verán próximamente culminado su periodo inicial de licencia (40 años). Sin embargo, Klein explicó que las revisiones de seguridad están siendo satisfactorias, de modo que se están otorgando prórrogas para veinte años más, e incluso es posible que se vaya después a otras dos décadas adicionales.

El encuentro del INRA se celebró en Córdoba entre el lunes y el miércoles, pero ayer pronunciaron sendas conferencias y atendieron a la prensa los presidentes de los reguladores de EE UU, España y Francia. Este último, André-Claude Lacoste, explicó que su organismo no tiene competencias sobre la seguridad de las centrales frente a ataques terroristas, aunque reclamó a su Parlamento que las integrase. Lacoste se refirió a los incidentes radiológicos registrados en los últimos tiempos en su país (el más grave, en Épinal, causó varios muertos), y afirmó que el regulador está reclamando la máxima colaboración a los médicos.

Por su parte, la presidenta del Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear, Carmen Martínez Ten, resaltó la importancia de la cooperación entre reguladores internacionales para aprender de las mejores prácticas y de los problemas ajenos, y destacó la formación de un foro similar al INRA en el ámbito latinoamericano.

El incidente de Juzbado lo sigue la policía

Carmen Martínez Ten puso en común con sus homólogos del INRA el reciente incidente de la localidad salmantina de Juzbado, donde se encontraron 300 gramos de pastillas de combustible dentro del recinto, pero fuera de la planta de fabricación.

La presidenta del Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear dijo ayer que no pudo abundar en las explicaciones, dado que el caso está siendo investigado por las fuerzas de seguridad del Estado, aunque afirmó que desde el Consejo creen que 'es un tema que viene de dentro', en alusión al personal de la planta.