25 abril 2007

Resultados trimestrales de ConocoPhillips (COP) - mediocres

ConocoPhillips reported a 7.7% increase in its first-quarter profit, with asset sales salvaging otherwise weaker results amid lower oil and gas prices.

ConocoPhillips (COP) , the third-biggest U.S. oil company by market cap, posted net income of $3.55 billion, up from $3.29 billion a year earlier. Per-share earnings fell to $2.12 from $2.34. The one-time asset sales added 29 cents a share to the bottom line.

Excluding the 29 cents worth of one-time items, the Houston-based company's operating income was $1.83 a share, below the $1.90 expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial.

Revenue for the quarter fell 12% to $41.3 billion from $46.9 billion a year ago, falling short of the $55 billion analysts were looking for.

The company warned that oil and gas production from the "upstream" side of its business would likely fall in the second quarter, partly the result of its continued effort to cut debt used to finance its purchase of Burlington Resources.

"Consistent with our plans, we anticipate the company's second-quarter E&P segment production to be lower due to scheduled maintenance, normal seasonality in Alaska, our exit from Dubai and asset dispositions," ConocoPhillips Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jim Mulva said in a statement.

The company cut its debt load by $3.5 billion to $23.7 billion during the quarter, funding a $3 billion capital program that included buying back $1 billion worth of common stock and bringing its debt-to-capital ratio down to 22%.

Oil and gas production during the first three months of the year averaged the equivalent of 2.47 million barrels a day, including 450,000 barrels oil equivalent (BOE) a day from the company's stake in Russia's Lukoil.

Excluding the Lukoil stake, ConocoPhillips' daily production volumes averaged 2.02 million BOE, down from 2.05 BOE a year ago. While Conoco's acquisition of Burlington Resources added to its output volumes, the gains were more than offset by the sale of producing field, dwindling output on older fields, and mandated reductions on fields in nations belonging to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Crude-oil prices were down for the quarter, averaging $53.38 a barrel worldwide compared with $56.63 in the first quarter of 2006. Natural gas prices also declined year-on-year to an average $6.35 per thousand cubic feet from $7.24, a drop that is hard on ConocoPhillips given its position as one of the top natural gas producers in North America.

Refining and marketing operations, the so-called downstream side of the business, saw net
income of nearly $1.14 billion, up from $390 million a year ago.

Capital expenditures and other investments during the first quarter totaled $2.85 billion, down from $4.51 billion a year ago.

Mi lectura: Resultados difíciles de interpretar, porque se mezclan muchas cosas. COP ha vendido activos para comprar acciones propias y de Lukoil, y reducir deuda; y eso lo está cumpliendo: la deuda se reduce bastante. Respecto al negocio, gas y petróleo flojos y refino muy fuerte, como era de esperar. Y claro, como ha vendido activos, su producción SIN CONTAR LUKOIL se reduce... pero ¿qué sentido tiene no contar Lukoil? ¿Acaso no es uno de los pilares de la estrategia de COP?

Si se cuenta TODO, yo diría que vamos bien, por mucha reducción de producción que anuncien. Además, los precios para el segundo trimestre están superando bastante a los del primer trimestre en todos los flancos (petróleo, gas y refino), así que es de esperar que incluso con menor producción conseguiremos mayores beneficios.

El mercado lo ha recibido con ligeras subidas, así que más o menos debe opinar como yo...


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